North Korea and the Fine Print of a Deal

North Korea and the Fine Print of a Deal

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

By: Adam Gallagher

With significant uncertainty surrounding the proposed Trump-Kim summit scheduled for June 12 in Singapore, South Korean President Moon Jae-in is in Washington this week to ensure the historic meeting happens. Whether its sanctions relief or appropriating peacebuilding funds, the U.S. Congress will play a pivotal role in any settlement with North Korea. Amid questions about Pyongyang’s intent and past negotiating behavior, Steve Russell (R-OK) and Congressmen Ted Lieu (D-CA), both military veterans, offered their support for the Trump administration’s participation in the summit during a bipartisan dialogue at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

Mediation, Negotiation & Dialogue

North Korea and China: The Endgame Behind the Headlines

North Korea and China: The Endgame Behind the Headlines

Friday, April 20, 2018

By: Fred Strasser

In the fast-moving diplomacy over North Korea’s nuclear program, the long-term interests of the country’s powerful neighbor China don’t make headlines. Yet behind China’s tactical moves such as President Xi Jinping’s meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un last month lie strategic questions about what China—vital to any resolution of the North Korea nuclear issue—envisions as a satisfactory end state for the Korean Peninsula.

Conflict Analysis & Prevention; Global Policy

Possible U.S.-North Korea Summit: Expect the Unexpected

Possible U.S.-North Korea Summit: Expect the Unexpected

Friday, March 9, 2018

By: USIP Staff; Frank Aum

This week, President Donald Trump said he is accepting an invitation by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to meet face to face, perhaps as soon as May. Such a meeting would be the first between a sitting U.S. president and a leader of North Korea. Frank Aum, USIP’s senior expert on North Korea, told NPR on March 8 that the news made him “optimistic and terrified at the same time.”

Conflict Analysis & Prevention; Global Policy

A Diplomatic Window Opens, Briefly, on the Korean Peninsula

A Diplomatic Window Opens, Briefly, on the Korean Peninsula

Thursday, January 18, 2018

By: Frank Aum

Last week’s “sports diplomacy” between South and North Korean negotiators—the first direct dialogue in more than two years—was a good first step in reducing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s participation in next month’s Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, along with news that the joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises will be delayed until late April, has produced a rare window of opportunity for diplomatic progress.

Mediation, Negotiation & Dialogue

United States, North Korea Stuck in Dangerous Zero-Sum Game

United States, North Korea Stuck in Dangerous Zero-Sum Game

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

By: Frank Aum

North Korea’s successful test of a new intercontinental missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland has escalated an already dangerous standoff. After the Hwasong-15 missile soared 2,800 miles high and then crashed in waters off Japan, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un now has the ability to hit "everywhere in the world, basically."

Conflict Analysis & Prevention; Global Policy

China’s Evolving North Korea Strategy

China’s Evolving North Korea Strategy

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

By: Oriana Skylar Mastro

Despite Pyongyang’s recent ballistic missile and nuclear activity and threats, Beijing continues to resist US requests to apply greater economic pressure on North Korea. This measured response aside, nuanced but highly significant changes in China’s thinking on North Korea are clear. China may now be willing to envision both a future in which North Korea is not a sovereign state and a greater role for the Chinese military in any contingency. This Peace Brief reviews this thinking as well as potential Chinese motivations to intervene militarily in a Korea contingency and the implications for US policy.

Justice, Security & Rule of Law; Global Policy; Conflict Analysis & Prevention