July 12, 2012

Vote-counting is under way in Libya, after the country held its first free national election for 60 years.

Even before Col. Muammar Qaddafi's regime was toppled, USIP staff have been on the ground working with the transitional government and civil society to ensure a relatively smooth and inclusive post-conflict process.

Manal Omar, director of USIP's Iraq, Iran and North Africa programs — and who was working in Benghazi long before Tripoli fell in late August 2011 — assesses the significance of that vote, the challenges ahead, and whether we're likely to see a rise of Islamists in Libya as in Egypt and Tunisia.   

Who won the parliamentary election?

On July 7th, Libyan citizens cast their votes for a General National Assembly in the country's first election since 1952. Although there have been many predictions that the National Forces Alliance (NFA) are taking the lead, as of July 11, it is still too early to determine a winner.

A minimum of four days is expected prior to an announcement of the final results, though the High Electoral Commission is releasing results constituency by constituency. Libya does not have legislation allowing for the establishment of political parties, which means that political “entities” competed for seats within the national assembly. Within the National Assembly, only 80 seats are reserved for “entities,” equivalent to party candidates, while the remaining 120 are open to individual representatives.

It is likely these individual representatives will have close ties to future political parties, but actual predictions of where the individual candidates will build alliances are premature, as are predictions of who ultimately will win the majority seats in the national assembly.

More broadly, what did the election accomplish?

Nearly 80 percent of eligible voters registered to participate in these elections, with about 60 percent of registered voters casting a ballot. The number of tweets and posts on Facebook from Libyans across the country mirrored the same sentiment I had heard before the election, that the greatest accomplishment of the elections was the end of the National Transitional Council (NTC). Although the majority of Libyans on the ground appreciate the crucial role of the NTC, they were eager to see it come to an end. In the same vein, the second greatest accomplishment of the election is the legitimacy they will bestow to the incoming national assembly.

However, the election accomplished much more than an end to the NTC and progress toward an elected national assembly. It instilled within Libyans a strong sense of pride and achievement. The fact that Libya was able to hold the elections without further delay demonstrated a strong level of commitment to moving forward the difficult nation- building process. Although there was violence, it was relatively small and contained, considering Libya is still a post-conflict environment. At the same time, a vast majority of polling centers were operational, with only .001 percent unable to operate.

Another positive outcome of the election was a commitment by the majority of Libyans to choose the ballot box rather than guns as a way to express opposition or dissent.

In Bani Walid, an area widely identified as a pro-Qaddafi area, 51 percent registered to vote, with the remaining 49 percent likely under the legal voting age. Eyewitness reports suggested a steady calm voting presence at the polls in Bani Walid. Even in the city of Sirte, where media reports had predicted widespread boycotts to protest the vote , no such demonstrations occurred.

This reassures those who fear that Libyans will promote a strong pro-Qaddafi resistance or attempt some kind of sabotage in these opposition strongholds.

What are the greatest challenges facing Libya moving forward?

The greatest danger of election is the perception that it is a magic pill that will solve all the country's ailments.

Democracy is not defined by elections alone. Among Libya's many challenges ahead, one of the top concerns is the country's stability. In recent months there have been numerous attacks on officials, assassinations and attempts thereof, armed groups seizing and shutting down public infrastructure, such as the airport in Tripoli and, more recently, oil operations in the east.

There have also been violent clashes in several regions. In the southern regions of Kufra and Sabha, these have taken an ethnic-economic character — exacerbated by policies taken by both the former regime and the transitional authorities — overlying disputes over smuggling routes. And, in the east, there have been clashes in the Nafusa Mountains involving tribal parties associated with the old regime.

What is among the first tasks for the National Assembly?

One of the first steps the National Assembly will need to take is to examine the authority of the NTC laws, and in some cases, the National Assembly will need to take action to have these laws overturned. The most pressing example involves the mandate of the assembly itself. Initially, the National Assembly was to be tasked with selecting a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution, as well as overseeing a new government and new general elections. However, it was recently revealed that the NTC passed a constitutional amendment stripping the power of the National Assembly to appoint the constituent assembly, the members of which will now be determined by direct elections.

Were women able to participate in the elections?

The electoral system ensured women's participation. The political entities were required to alternate male and female candidates on the list. The lists contained 540 females and 662 male candidates. The individual candidates were not as well represented. Out of the 2,500 individual candidates, there were only 85 female. Eyewitness reports in Libya emphasized the long lines of women who came to exercise their right to vote.

Will it be a repeat of Tunisia and Egypt, where the Islamists won the majority?

One of the key questions for those monitoring the progress of the Arab spring is the rise of the Islamists.

But, in the context of Libya this can be a red herring. The Muslim Brotherhood does not have the same institutional legacy in Libya that it had in Tunisia and Egypt. At the same time, there are several Islamic political entities, and they entered into the political arena more fragmented than the more liberal coalition represented by the National Forces Alliance (NFA). Furthermore, the debate on secular versus Islamic political entities does not resonate with the majority of Libyans, who largely have a conservative background and for whom Islamic identity is not in question. Instead, many Libyans see a clear distinction between practicing Islam and political Islam. In fact, even the most conservative members of civil society have been advocating for a separation of the two.

For example, the fatwa from the Grand Mufti Sheikh Sadik al Gheraini, against voting for secular parties did not have the mass impact on voters as feared.

How is USIP supporting Libya during the transition?

Libyans must learn to solve their disputes peacefully and to use democratic means to advocate for their needs. This requires skills of facilitation, which are most effectively applied in a professional manner, incorporating scientific foundations of the craft. Though there is a great deal of local knowledge of dispute resolution mechanisms, USIP stands in a strong position to help strengthen the craft of facilitation by teaching some of the science of facilitation. To this end, USIP has started an Alliance of Libyan Facilitators (ALF), which includes individuals from a large regional spread, and has been brought together for a number of workshops on conflict mediation techniques.

Another critical area in which USIP is involved is constitution making. As the Libyan people emerge from their successful election, the task is now to draft a constitution capable of providing the foundation for a peaceful transition. It is important the people understand the critical issues at stake in this process so they can approach the referendum, which the draft of the constitution will face, with sufficient knowledge to assure the final draft will take a viable form. In this area, USIP has provided support by convening workshops with civil society representatives, to prepare them for the task of helping to guide the nation through the constitution-making process.

USIP has selected these areas of engagement as the most critical to ensuring a peaceful transition, and so far our initiatives have received a great deal of enthusiasm from participants, government officials, and civil society.