Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Nigeria’s Vote Signals Risks: How Its Partners Can Support Democracy
Nigeria’s disputed election 12 days ago is raising protest at home and concern abroad over its implications for the strength of democracy in that country and across Africa. Yesterday’s new wrinkle was the postponement of this week’s planned election for Nigerian state governors. Nigeria’s electoral commission is working to fix problems in a vote management system that failed to transparently process and report a result on February 25. An erosion of democracy’s credibility in Africa’s most populous nation would be catastrophic.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Asks: Can We Shorten This War?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seized Americans’ attention yesterday, rushing from a smoking Ukrainian battlefield to ask Congress directly for the help that can let Ukrainians turn back Europe’s most brutal war since Adolf Hitler. Flying home last night, the question Zelenskyy left behind is this: Will the United States trickle out its assistance slowly, perhaps to avoid a Ukrainian collapse but leaving this war to grind for years? Or might Zelenskyy’s impassioned appeal persuade Americans to invest in his ambition to shorten the bloodshed, reversing Vladimir Putin’s invasion in coming months to force him to accept a negotiated off-ramp from the war?
In Moldova, Russia Wages Another Hybrid War
The past week underscores a rising threat in Europe from Russia’s savage assault on Ukraine: the Kremlin’s parallel destabilization of tiny Moldova, between Ukraine and Romania. The Kremlin is escalating a hybrid subversion campaign against Moldova’s effort to build a stable democracy and join the European Union. It is choking off vital gas supplies to tank the economy, sponsoring mass anti-government protests and helping a fugitive Moldovan oligarch launch the latest of several pro-Russia political parties. European policymakers say Moldova, partly occupied by Russian troops, is one of the countries most vulnerable to a spread of the war in Ukraine.
Pakistan Presses U.S. to Lead Global Response to Climate Disasters
Pakistan’s unprecedented flood disaster is a wakeup call for governments and international institutions on the need to build a worldwide response to the disproportionate burden of climate change on nations of the Global South — a challenge that Pakistan’s foreign minister underscored to U.S. officials and foreign policy analysts Wednesday at USIP. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari urged policymakers to lead an international effort to use the Pakistan crisis as a catalyst for a more effective international effort to help the countries most vulnerable to climate change.
Building Peace with Russia: Lessons from Gorbachev
Mikhail Gorbachev enters history as a tragic figure—a pragmatist who ruled the Soviet Union for 66 months, believing he could save its dysfunctional, Russian-led imperium with liberalizing reforms. Yet Gorbachev’s struggle to humanize the Soviet machine led to its collapse. And while he and his Western counterparts managed to end the Cold War, Gorbachev in his final months watched his successor ignite in Ukraine a catastrophic version of the bloodshed he had labored to avert in Europe. Whenever Russia and the world might rebuild the kind of peacemaking moment that Gorbachev’s pragmatism presented 40 years ago, his legacy will help shape it.
A Fragile Ukraine Grain Deal Raises Cautions on Talks with Putin
This week’s first exports of Ukrainian grain under a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey are a joyous headline for Ukraine and the many countries where the global surge in grain prices has caused food shortages. The deal could reduce prices if shipments accelerate, but it is vulnerable, as Russia signaled days ago by slamming missiles into Ukraine’s biggest seaport hours after formally agreeing to let that port ship its grain stocks. This fragile deal offers cautions for policymakers pondering eventual negotiations with Moscow to help end the Ukraine war and rebuild security in Europe.
Ukraine: How to Oppose Russia’s Weaponization of Corruption
Fifteen weeks of Ukrainians’ staunch resistance to Russia’s invasion has created an opportunity to weaken one of Russia’s main weapons to undermine democracy and stability in other countries, according to Eka Tkeshelashvili, a former foreign minister of Georgia. As democracies bolster Ukraine’s defense, they also should step up support for Ukraine to root out the corruption in business and government that has long been Russian President Vladimir Putin’s primary method to cripple the independence of Russia’s neighbors. One impact of the war will be to create a stronger political base for throttling corruption in Ukraine, Tkeshelashvili said.
Our Next ‘Unthinkable’ Crisis: Nuclear War in Asia?
Our world’s spate of disasters so recently unimaginable — European cities pulverized by war, Earth’s decaying climate or 6 million dead from pandemic disease — evokes a national security question: What other “unthinkable” crises must American citizens and policymakers anticipate? A singular threat is warfare around our planet’s one spot where three nuclear-armed states stubbornly contest long-unresolved border conflicts. Largely unnoted in national security news coverage, the conflicts embroiling China, India and Pakistan are growing more complex and dangerous. A USIP study shows the urgency for U.S. policymakers of working to reduce the risks.
On Ukraine, Africa Needs a Clearer U.S. Message
As democracies rally to defend an international rules-based system against Russia’s brutal attack on Ukrainians, the United States should forge an alliance with African partners by committing with them now to resolve the Ukraine crisis in a way that makes that system fairer and more inclusive. One early step is for U.S. and other policymakers to highlight the core of this conflict: The 44 million Ukrainians are fighting to govern themselves freely within their internationally recognized borders — a cause that is viscerally real to billions of people across Africa and the “global south.”
The Ukraine War Escalates Demands to Reform the United Nations
Russia’s brutal assault on Ukraine has revived demands that the world repair longstanding weaknesses in the United Nations’ ability to counter wars of aggression. This week’s Russia-Ukraine diplomacy by the U.N. secretary-general, and a surprising vote at the U.N. General Assembly, seem likely to energize those debates and attempts at repair.