Summary

For over a decade, the United States has considered the Horn of Africa—Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan—a major source of terrorism. Following the 9-11 attacks against the United States, the Horn has come under increased scrutiny as a strategic focal point in the war against terrorism.

  • In May 2003, the Kenyan government admitted that a key member of the al Qaeda terror network was plotting an attack on western targets, confirming al Qaeda's firm local presence.
  • Ethiopian Muslims have not been receptive to Islamic fundamentalism and they lack centralized power. They tend to identify first with their ethnic kin. Muslims and Christians are geographically intermixed throughout most of the country. Islam in Ethiopia has been benign during the past century. But the potential for conflict is present.
  • Djibouti's importance to terrorists derives from its transit capabilities rather than its potential as a base for international terrorist organizations. Events since 1999, however, may have increased Djibouti's attractiveness to international terrorists.
  • Somalia has played a role in Islamist terrorism, albeit a specialized one. It has served primarily as a short-term transit point for movement of men and materiel through the porous and corrupt border between Somalia into Kenya, which has been a preferred site of terrorist attacks.
  • Eritrea's inclusion in the "coalition of the willing" threatens to widen the gap between moderate and radical Eritrean Muslims due to the regime's use of the "war against terrorism" to eliminate all dissent.
  • The government of Sudan stands at a crossroads. It is attempting to move in a new direction through serious peace negotiations with the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) and improved relations with the United States, but those efforts are being hindered by high-ranking officials who remain committed to the radical Islamist agenda.
  • An effective U.S. response to terrorist threats in the Horn of Africa must include increased and targeted foreign aid, improved regional intelligence capabilities, and increased pressure on exogenous forces (especially Saudi Arabia) that stoke the flames of radicalism through Muslim "charities" and religious training programs.

About the Report

This report presents the views shared by six regional experts at a U.S. Institute of Peace workshop, "Assessing Terrorism in the Horn of Africa: Threats and Responses," held on May 28. The meeting was organized by the Institute's Research and Studies Program as a half-day forum for leading specialists on terrorism, the Horn of Africa, and American foreign policy toward Africa. This Special Report presents case studies on Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, and Sudan.

The workshop was organized and chaired by Tim Docking, African affairs specialist in the Research and Studies Program at the Institute, with the help of Ken Menkhaus.

The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not advocate specific policies.


Related Publications

Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Friday, December 15, 2023

The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Amid Red Sea Rivalries, Eritrea Plays for Independence

Amid Red Sea Rivalries, Eritrea Plays for Independence

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

When Eritrea’s president last month hosted the leaders of Ethiopia and Somalia to discuss “regional cooperation,” that initiative drew few global headlines. Still, Eritrea’s move should be noted by policymakers and others working for stability in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region. For years, President Isaias Afwerki’s disdain for multilateral forums such as the African Union, and his strained relations with many governments in the region, have contributed to caricatures of Eritrea as the “North Korea of Africa.” But his invitation for two neighbors to discuss a new regional bloc reflects an important factor in Eritrea’s foreign policy: its efforts to preserve its independence in a fast-evolving geopolitical environment.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

A Year After the Ethiopia-Eritrea Peace Deal, What Is the Impact?

A Year After the Ethiopia-Eritrea Peace Deal, What Is the Impact?

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace agreement just over a year ago to end two decades of a “frozen war.” The accord, which resolved a seemingly intractable border dispute after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office and accepted an independent commission’s 2002 boundary decision, was greeted with tremendous optimism in both countries and by international observers.

Type: Analysis

Peace ProcessesReconciliation

View All Publications