Senior Study Group Report
Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan
In 2022, the U.S. Institute of Peace convened a senior study group to examine the evolving threat landscape and counterterrorism challenges in South Asia. The bipartisan study group brought together experts of counterterrorism strategy, diplomacy, intelligence and South Asia to assess terrorism risks from Afghanistan and Pakistan and put forth policy options for future counterterrorism efforts in the region.
Question and Answer
Why Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan Still Matters
When announcing the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in April 2021, President Joe Biden identified counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan as an enduring and critical U.S. national security interest. To support this priority, USIP brought together a group of bipartisan experts on counterterrorism and South Asia to assess terrorist threats from South and Central Asia, as well as propose policy options that could help mitigate threats and safeguard U.S. interests while being compatible with the overall U.S. policy focus on strategic competition.
USIP Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan
The USIP Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan evaluated threats from Afghanistan and Pakistan and developed options for a sustainable counterterrorism strategy that could effectively mitigate existing threats, especially those directed against the U.S. homeland and its allies and partners. While reflecting on the past 20 years of counterterrorism efforts in the region, the group also evaluated tradeoffs of counterterrorism policy options and strategic competition.
The study group came to two main conclusions on the stakes and direction of the terrorist threat and the strategic policy options for the United States. First, rather than considering counterterrorism as an unwelcome distraction from strategic competition, policymakers could recalibrate their focus on counterterrorism to mitigate threats and shield the strategic competition agenda.
A potential terrorist attack would be costly for U.S. strategic interests — risking a tragic loss of life, as well as a shock that could divert U.S. resources and attention away from other national security interests, particularly the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Attacks against U.S. allies and partners also risk undermining U.S. assurances and sparking a wider escalation in the region.
The second conclusion that the study group reached is that terrorist threats to U.S. interests from Afghanistan and Pakistan are steadily rising — and Afghanistan presents growing space for terrorist groups compared to the period before the U.S. withdrawal. ISIS-K presents a rising threat with reach beyond the immediate region, greater than during the pre-withdrawal period. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist group has also returned as a regional security threat. While the worst-case scenario concerning al-Qaeda’s reconstitution in Afghanistan has not materialized, that group and its South Asia affiliate continue to maintain ties with and receive support from the Taliban and to call for attacks against U.S. citizens, allies, partners (including India) and U.S. interests. In addition, the Taliban’s provision of sanctuary to terrorist groups and their promotion of extremist ideologies also present a counterterrorism challenge.
Based on these two conclusions, the study group’s final report evaluated and put forth policy options to mitigate terrorist threats and safeguard U.S. interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan, while maintaining the current focus on strategic competition.
Final Report of the USIP Senior Study Group
Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Final Report
The Senior Study Group's final report examines the counterterrorism challenge from the region in light of the U.S. withdrawal and growing strategic competition.
Senior Study Group Members
Senior Study Group Members
Laurel Miller, Co-chair
The Asia Foundation
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Michael K. Nagata, Co-chair
U.S. Army
Dr. Tricia Bacon
American University
Shamila Chaudhary
Formerly National Security Council
Dr. Brian Finucane
International Crisis Group
Major General (Ret.) Robin Fontes
U.S. Army
Larry Henderson
Arcanum Global
Dr. Colin Jackson
U.S. Naval War College
Dr. Carter Malkasian
Naval Post Graduate School
Ambassador (Ret.) P. Michael McKinley
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ambassador (Ret.) Anne Patterson
Yale Jackson School of International Affairs
Dr. Andrew Radin
RAND Corporation
Andrew Watkins
U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Joshua White
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Scott Worden
U.S. Institute of Peace
Katherine Zimmerman
Irregular Warfare Initiative
Tamanna Salikuddin, Senior Study Group Executive Director
Director, South Asia Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Asfandyar Mir, Senior Study Group Director
Senior Expert, South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
Staff Support
Isha Gupta
U.S. Institute of Peace
Maximilien Mellott
Formerly U.S. Institute of Peace
Amna Rana
U.S. Institute of Peace
Brigitta Schuchert
U.S. Institute of Peace
Dante Schulz
U.S. Institute of Peace
Featured Resources
Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan
On May 14, USIP launched the final report of the Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The conversation looked at lessons learned from 20 years of U.S. counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as examined a forward looking, cost-effective and sustainable approach for U.S. counterterrorism policy.
Why Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan Still Matters
From wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to rising tensions in the South China Sea, there is no shortage of crises to occupy the time and attention of U.S. policymakers. But three years after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the threat of terrorism emanating from South Asia remains strong and policymakers need to be more vigilant.
Two Years Under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a Terrorist Safe Haven Once Again?
Two years into Taliban rule, the question of whether Afghanistan would once again become a safe haven for international terrorism remains alive. Longstanding fears were affirmed a little over a year ago, when the U.S. government located al-Qaeda leader Aimen al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan, before killing him in a drone strike.
Asfandyar Mir on Why ISIS-K Attacked Moscow
ISIS-K’s recent attack on the Russian capital was, in part, intended to assert the organization’s growing capacity to inflict terror beyond its home base of Afghanistan. “By reaching Moscow, ISIS-K is trying to signal it has the geographic reach to hit anywhere in the world,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.
The Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia
When the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, counterterrorism experts were alarmed at the possible resurgence of Islamist terrorist groups within the country. This Special Report lays out why those concerns, particularly about the regional Islamic State affiliate known as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), were well-founded.