With rapid technological change, shifting global demographics, and tectonic geopolitical shifts, the world faces an inflection point—where the choices that leaders make in the coming years will have profound implications for generations. In response to this moment, former Secretary of State George P. Shultz has organized a project at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution called Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging World to explore what these shifts mean for global democracy, economies, and security.

On December 2, USIP and Stanford’s Hoover Institution held a timely conversation on the project’s findings and its implications for U.S. and international policy. The panel discussion evaluated the major demographic, technological, and economic trends that are creating tectonic shifts in our geopolitical landscape and forcing a strategic rethink of governance strategies in the 21st century. In light of the challenges identified, panelists also considered how the United States and others can harness these changes to usher in greater security and prosperity.

Continue the conversation on Twitter with #HingeofHistory.

Agenda

2:00pm – 2:20pm | A Conversation with Secretary George P. Shultz

  • The Honorable Stephen J. Hadley
    Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Secretary George P. Shultz
    Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

2:20pm – 3:20pm | Panel Discussion: Governance Strategies for the Emerging New World

  • Ambassador George Moose, moderator
    Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
  • Dr. Chester A. Crocker
    James R. Schlesinger Professor of Strategic Studies, Georgetown University
  • Dr. Lucy Shapiro
    Virginia and D. K. Ludwig Professor of Developmental Biology, Stanford University
  • Dr. James P. Timbie
    Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
  • Dr. Silvia Giorguli-Saucedo
    President, El Colegio de México

3:20pm – 3:30pm | Closing Remarks

  • Ambassador George Moose
    Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace

Latest Publications

Despite Daunting Economic Headwinds, Afghan Private Sector Shows Signs of Life

Despite Daunting Economic Headwinds, Afghan Private Sector Shows Signs of Life

Thursday, May 2, 2024

Three years after the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, the country’s economy remains in a dismal state marked by depression-level price deflation, high unemployment and a collapse of GDP. Still, while the bad news for Afghans is well known, less visible are some green shoots in the country’s private sector that, if properly encouraged, could mitigate the situation. These range from small business activity to Taliban plans for major projects to the potential for an uptick in investment. Clearly nothing in those developments can stimulate a strong economic revival.

Type: Analysis

Economics

What Haiti Needs from the U.S. and International Community

What Haiti Needs from the U.S. and International Community

Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Despite obvious distractions from crises in other corners of the world, Haiti’s deepening disaster is belatedly drawing wider international attention. Critics of U.S. policy toward Haiti are emerging from all corners of the political spectrum — and there is much to be critical of, particularly if the timeframe is stretched to cover Haiti's political experience since the late 1980s and the transition from the Duvalier dictatorships. But in the here and now, these assessments short charge the admittedly tough odds of the most recent Caribbean Community- (CARICOM) managed mediation efforts from which has emerged Haiti’s Presidential Council, a transitional governance structure for the country.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

In Russia’s Hybrid War on Europe, Moldova’s Critical Next 15 Months

In Russia’s Hybrid War on Europe, Moldova’s Critical Next 15 Months

Wednesday, May 1, 2024

A rising risk in southeast Europe is Russia’s sharpening of conflicts to block Moldova’s effort to join the European Union. The Kremlin is escalating a hybrid campaign to manipulate three Moldovan elections over the next 15 months. Moscow last week hosted the formation of a political bloc around its primary Moldovan ally, a fugitive billionaire convicted of the country’s worst-ever bank fraud — and sent a startling flood of pre-election cash that police seized at Moldova’s main airport. This is a critical season for Moldova’s democratic allies to help it defeat Russian disinformation and election subversion.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Nine Things to Know About Myanmar’s Conflict Three Years On

Nine Things to Know About Myanmar’s Conflict Three Years On

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

On March 28, 2021, barely two months after the February 1 coup in Myanmar, a minor skirmish erupted at the Tarhan protest in Kalay township in central Sagaing region as demonstrators took up makeshift weapons to defend themselves against ruthless assaults by the junta’s security forces. This was the first recorded instance of civilian armed resistance to the military’s violent crackdown on peaceful protesters since the February 1 coup d’état.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

View All Publications