Summary

• Haiti’s slow pace of recovery from the January 2010 earthquake is due to the magnitude of the calamity, pre-existing conditions, institutional weaknesses, resource limitations, a cholera epidemic and disputed elections.
• The pace of new cholera infections and deaths has begun to slow, although infections and death rates remain high in rural areas and risk of renewed high infection rates is significant.
• Following protracted controversy after presidential and parliamentary elections held in late November 2010, second round runoffs have been scheduled for March 20th with President Rene Préval remaining in office through mid-May.
• The unexpected return to Haiti in mid-January of former dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier and the potential return of exiled former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide have added to the country’s turmoil and uncertainty.
• Scenarios for Haiti’s future are based not only on the international community’s ability to provide needed support, but also on the ability of Haiti’s leaders and people to successfully elect a credible national government.

About this Brief

This report is based on views expressed during a January 26, 2010 event hosted by the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Haiti Working Group titled “What is in Haiti’s Future?” The event featured presentations by Thomas Adams, the U.S. State Department’s special coordinator for Haiti; Alexandre Abrantes, the World Bank’s special envoy to Haiti; Mark Schneider, senior vice president of the International Crisis Group; and Robert Fatton, University of Virginia’s associate dean for graduate programs.

Robert Maguire, chair of the Haiti Working Group at USIP and associate professor of international affairs at Trinity Washington University, served as moderator. Robert Maguire and Tara Nesvaderani, a research assistant in the Centers of Innovation at USIP, co-authored the report.

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