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Riots in Papua New Guinea Are a Warning: Urgent Change is Needed

Riots in Papua New Guinea Are a Warning: Urgent Change is Needed

Thursday, January 11, 2024

Riots erupted in Papua New Guinea's capital yesterday, laying bare the hollowness of governance that is failing to meet public needs, thus risking deeper violence and instability. U.S attention to the Pacific Islands' largest and most populous nation is increasing, partly because it is an arena for geopolitical competition with China. While Papua New Guinea's leaders are good at rolling out the red carpet for visiting partners, the state fails lamentably in providing basic services for its people. This week’s violence is a wake-up call for U.S and international policymakers to re-focus on this root of the country’s instability.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceFragility & Resilience

The Myanmar Army’s War Against Mental Health and Psychosocial Support

The Myanmar Army’s War Against Mental Health and Psychosocial Support

Thursday, January 11, 2024

After nearly 75 years of sustained conflict, Myanmar’s population has suffered devastating and compounding intergenerational trauma. But rather than address that collective trauma, successive military governments have terrorized the country while also disinvesting from systems of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS).

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

A Preview of 2024 Elections Throughout Latin America

A Preview of 2024 Elections Throughout Latin America

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Anti-incumbent sentiment has gripped much of Latin America in recent years, swinging electoral results leftward in Mexico, Colombia, Honduras and Brazil, upending the corrupt coalitions that have long ruled Guatemala, and handing the presidency of Argentina to a self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist.” But 2024 may prove to be a good year for establishment politicians. In the five countries with elections on the calendar — El Salvador, Panama, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Mexico — insider candidates are polling ahead, at least so far.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, Egypt has been heavily involved in efforts to end the military confrontations and wars that have periodically broken out in Gaza. However, the scope, scale and stakes of the current war is unlike any prior round of hostilities. In response to the massacre and hostage-taking of mostly Israeli civilians by Hamas and other militant armed groups during their devastating attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel has launched one of the most destructive wars in its history. Indeed, this war will be transformational in numerous ways, with ramifications for several stakeholders beyond the parties themselves.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

It’s Not Too Early to Talk about Plan Ecuador

It’s Not Too Early to Talk about Plan Ecuador

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Since his assumption of Ecuador’s presidency on November 23, 2023, Daniel Noboa has faced a surge in violence that culminated the week of January 8th with prison riots, the abduction of police officers, car bombings, looting and the dramatic kidnapping of TV presenters during a live broadcast. Noboa fought back by announcing a state of emergency, opening the way for the armed forces to confront 22 gangs classified as “terrorist organizations.” It is not too early to consider a surge in international support for Ecuador, such as a more modest and community-centered version of the highly successful Plan Colombia, given the strength of transnational and national criminal organizations.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Un enfoque bipartidista estadounidense sobre Venezuela es posible – y necesario

Un enfoque bipartidista estadounidense sobre Venezuela es posible – y necesario

Thursday, March 9, 2023

A pesar del gobierno dividido en Washington (ejecutivo demócrata y legislativo republicano), hay un amplio espacio para la acción bipartidista en la política exterior de Estados Unidos. Hacerle control a los avances de China y apoyar a Ucrania contra Rusia encabezan la lista, pero la principal oportunidad para que republicanos y demócratas trabajen juntos puede estar en Venezuela, donde las elecciones presidenciales del próximo año ofrecen la mejor oportunidad en años para una apertura democrática.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Taiwan and the United States Share Key Interests in the North Pacific

Taiwan and the United States Share Key Interests in the North Pacific

Monday, March 27, 2023

In September 2022, USIP published a report on “China’s Influence on the Freely Associated States of the Northern Pacific,” which consist of the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Republic of Palau. “China’s engagement in these countries threatens [U.S.] interests both locally and in the broader Pacific region,” said the preface to the report, which makes the case that strengthening U.S. relations with the Freely Associated States (FAS) is essential to secure U.S. interests and prevent China from increasing its influence in the region. This Senior Study Group report largely focuses on the interests of the United States, China and the FAS, but also has significant implications for Taiwan.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Les Haïtiens ont-ils enfin trouvé la formule pour avancer ?

Les Haïtiens ont-ils enfin trouvé la formule pour avancer ?

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Les gros titres d'Haïti ont été si mauvais pendant si longtemps que peu attirent plus l'attention du monde. Il semble que presque chaque jour, il y a des histoires de dizaines de personnes tuées dans la capitale du pays ou de la Garde côtière américaine empêchant des centaines de migrants haïtiens d'atteindre les côtes américaines. Ensuite, il y a les titres les plus inquiétants qui disent que la guerre ou même un massacre à la rwandaise s’approchent parmi les « conditions cauchemardesques » du pays. Avec la situation d'Haïti apparemment plus inextricable que jamais, certains observateurs se sont demandé si le monde est tout simplement fatigué d'essayer d'aider Mais à la fin de l'année dernière, un accord peu médiatisé a été forgé par les Haïtiens - injectant une lueur d'espoir que le pays pourrait emprunter un nouveau chemin.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceFragility & Resilience

Positivism for Peace: Reforming the International System

Positivism for Peace: Reforming the International System

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Among many insightful and concerning points raised by the U.S. intelligence community’s 2023 threat assessment, it notes that "great powers, rising regional powers, as well as an evolving array of non-state actors, will vie for dominance in the global order … [and] compete to set the emerging conditions and the rules that will shape that order for decades to come.” China’s efforts to supplant U.S. dominance of global governance, along with divisions in the international community over the war in Ukraine have brought to the fore questions over the utility and viability of today’s international order.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

What’s the State of Play on the Global Fragility Act?

What’s the State of Play on the Global Fragility Act?

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

The White House’s recent release of 10-year stabilization and conflict prevention plans marks another milestone in U.S. efforts to implement the closely watched Global Fragility Act (GFA). The legislation received bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress before being signed into law by then President Donald Trump in 2019. It requires the U.S. government to develop a strategy for preventing the drivers of violent conflict and extremism, and to test a more coordinated, cost-effective and sustained U.S. approach in hot spots around the world.

Type: Analysis

Fragility & Resilience