Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Sometimes the Good Guys Win: Five Lessons from Guatemala’s 2023 Election
When Bernardo Arévalo won the presidency last year, it left Guatemala’s corrupt old guard reeling. Arévalo and his anti-corruption Semilla Movement posed a direct threat to the power of Guatemala’s “pacto de los corruptos” — an alliance of government officials, politicians, prosecutors, judges, party financiers, state contractors and some wealthy families. The pact mobilized to overturn the election results. But Guatemala’s civil society, backed by U.S. and broader international support, was able to uphold the elections and advance democracy in the Central American nation.
Ukraine’s New U.S. Lifeline: Why It’s Vital and What’s Next
This week’s U.S. approval of nearly $61 billion in funds for Ukraine’s defense is a lifeline in the Ukrainians’ struggle against Russia’s unprovoked invasion and the assault on peace and rule of law in Europe and beyond. Ukrainian troops have been rationing ammunition, their lack of defensive missiles has exposed Ukrainian cities to Russian aerial attacks — and many military analysts predicted a probable collapse on part of Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines. While this U.S. action boosts Ukrainians’ capacities and morale, ending this war will need further funds, forces and security measures for those fighting and suffering for their survival — and for the redemption of international peace through rule of law.
Baghdad Is Ready for a New Chapter in U.S.-Iraq Relations
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani met last week with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House as part of a weeklong visit aimed at strengthening bilateral relations. The visit occurred amid several historic anniversaries and dangerous developments in the Middle East. April marks the 21st anniversary of the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Since 2003, the U.S.-Iraq relationship has witnessed many ups and downs. Even as tensions persist, particularly in relation to the U.S. troop presence in the country, al-Sudani’s visit — which featured the largest delegation Iraqis have brought to Washington — demonstrates Iraqi will to start a new chapter in the strategic partnership that goes beyond security.
A Rising Philippines Faces a Crucial Year Ahead
By virtue of its geography alone, the Philippines is arguably Southeast Asia’s most strategically important country. Yet its actual influence has tended to lag its potential due to decades of socioeconomic struggle and internal instability, especially in its restive southern island of Mindanao. In recent years, however, the Philippines has rapidly emerged as one of the most consequential countries in the Indo-Pacific, driven in large part by President Ferdinand Marcos’ transformative policies on national security, defense and foreign relations.
China's Vision for Global Security: Implications for Southeast Asia
China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) marks a new phase in Beijing’s ongoing push to change the international security order. Through the GSI, China seeks to establish itself as a counterbalance to U.S. influence and to reshape security management in a number of strategically important regions. The GSI is still in the early stages of implementation, but it has already demonstrated the potential to disrupt the existing security framework in Southeast Asia. This may lead to increased polarization within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with some member states aligning with the GSI and others remaining cautious due to their stronger affiliations with the United States.
Amid a Changing Global Order, NATO Looks East
As NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary this year, the Euro-Atlantic security alliance continues to deepen its engagement with Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, collectively known as the IP4. NATO has collaborated with these countries since the early 2000s, but Russia’s war against Ukraine, security challenges posed by China and renewed strategic competition have led to increased engagement. As the war in Ukraine grinds on and U.S.-China competition shows no sign of abating, the United States has much to gain from collaboration between its allies and partners in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific.
Mental Health and Violent Conflict: A Vicious Cycle
When we think about the damage wrought by war, we often think about the physical consequences such as injuries and destroyed infrastructure. However, the often-invisible mental scars left behind by war are no less important.
China Forces Myanmar Scam Syndicates to Move to Thai Border
While Myanmar has long been the chief venue for the criminal operations of Chinese-origin gangs in Southeast Asia, these organizations have always stood ready to move — internally or across borders — if their sources of protection dissolved. In recent months, the organized crime kingpins have once again faced a fraying safety net. This time, the cause is the weakening of Myanmar’s corrupt coup regime in the face of a rising, multi-front revolution and, perhaps more importantly, an aggressive push by China’s law enforcement authorities.
For Peace in Africa, Boost Regional Blocs — Like West Africa’s ECOWAS
As the United States and international partners work to stabilize Africa’s Sahel region — and to prevent its warfare, violent extremism and armed coups from metastasizing into Africa’s densely populous and strategic Atlantic coast — the West African multinational bloc, ECOWAS, has proven its value in resolving crises and promoting stability. Yet, as global security threats have evolved, ECOWAS, like other multinational bodies, needs updated capacities to meet new challenges. International democracies’ most effective initiative to support West Africa’s stability would be to partner with West Africans to strengthen their vital regional community. A similar strategy is valid across Africa.
Four Priorities for Sudan a Year into the Civil War
This week marks a year of war in Sudan. A once promising revolution that led to the overthrow in 2019 of the country’s longtime dictator, Omar al-Bashir, has devolved into a devastating civil war. The fighting started over a dispute on how to incorporate the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into the country’s military, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF). A year later as the conflict between the RSF and SAF grinds on, Sudan is experiencing the world’s worst displacement crisis and one of the world’s worst hunger crises in recent history.