Afghanistan-Pakistan Ties and Future Stability in Afghanistan

Afghanistan-Pakistan Ties and Future Stability in Afghanistan

Thursday, August 12, 2021

By: Grace Easterly;  Elizabeth Threlkeld

The situation in Afghanistan—and with it the Afghanistan-Pakistan relationship—is likely to worsen in the short term. The prospect of a prolonged civil war or full Taliban takeover now looms large as hopes of a negotiated settlement recede. Whatever the outcome, the countries’ bilateral relationship will continue to be shaped by tensions that have characterized it for more than a century. This report examines these sources of tension and identifies potential openings for engagement that could, over time, become sources of stability and growth.

Type: Peaceworks

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Nonviolent Action and Transitions to Democracy: The Impact of Inclusive Dialogue and Negotiation

Nonviolent Action and Transitions to Democracy: The Impact of Inclusive Dialogue and Negotiation

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

By: Véronique Dudouet;  Jonathan Pinckney, Ph.D.

Significant dialogue and negotiation processes have taken place in almost all democratic transitions, but these processes alone do not have a significant impact on future democracy. This report presents statistical analysis of all political transitions after nonviolent action campaigns and case studies of transitions in Egypt, Tunisia, and Ukraine to show the importance of inclusion—and in particular the participation of women—to ensure both successful dialogue and that the outcome of that dialogue is a stable democracy.

Type: Peaceworks

Mediation, Negotiation & Dialogue

National Dialogues in Peacebuilding and Transitions: Creativity and Adaptive Thinking

National Dialogues in Peacebuilding and Transitions: Creativity and Adaptive Thinking

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

By: Elizabeth Murray;  Susan Stigant;  (editors)

At their best, national dialogues hold the promise of adding critical momentum in the drive to transform conflict inclusively. This report examines dialogues in six countries—the Central African Republic, Kenya, Lebanon, Senegal, Tunisia, and Yemen. These diverse processes show the possibilities for fostering dialogue, forging agreements, and driving toward peace; and the report offers extensive guidance on the possibilities and practicalities for those considering convening a national dialogue.

Type: Peaceworks

Mediation, Negotiation & Dialogue

Enhancing U.S.-China Strategic Stability in an Era of Strategic Competition

Enhancing U.S.-China Strategic Stability in an Era of Strategic Competition

Monday, April 26, 2021

By: Edited by Patricia M. Kim;  Contributing Authors: Brad Roberts, Li Bin, Patricia M. Kim, Jiang Tianjiao, Zhao Tong, Bruce MacDonald, Frank Rose, Guo Xiaobing, Jinghua Lyu, Adam Segal, Qi Haotian, Lora Saalman

As strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, preventing a destabilizing arms race and lowering the risk of military, especially nuclear, confrontation is critical. The essays in this volume—based on a series of workshops convened by USIP’s Asia Center in late 2020—highlight both the striking differences and the commonalities between U.S. and Chinese assessments of the root causes of instability and the drivers of conflict in the nuclear, conventional missile and missile defense, space, cyberspace and artificial intelligence realms.

Type: Peaceworks

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

“No Going Backward”: Afghanistan’s Post–Peace Accord Security Sector

“No Going Backward”: Afghanistan’s Post–Peace Accord Security Sector

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

By: Annie Pforzheimer;  Andrew Hyde;  Jason Criss Howk

Failure to plan realistically for needed changes in Afghanistan’s security sector following a peace settlement—and failure to start phasing in changes now—will lead to post-settlement instability. This report examines the particular challenges Afghanistan will face, with examples from the climate following peace settlements in other parts of the world offering insight into what may occur and possibilities for response.

Type: Peaceworks

Justice, Security & Rule of Law

Addressing Fragility in a Global Pandemic: Elements of a Successful U.S. Strategy

Addressing Fragility in a Global Pandemic: Elements of a Successful U.S. Strategy

Monday, December 7, 2020

By: Corinne Graff, editor

The Global Fragility Act (GFA), passed by Congress and signed into law in 2019, requires the State Department, USAID, and other agencies to put in place for the first time a comprehensive strategy to address state fragility, violent conflict, and extremism, relying on best practices that are key to more effective and integrated U.S. policy. This report focuses on six key themes in the legislation, drawing on the expertise of leading peacebuilding and development experts to help generate practical solutions for advancing the GFA.

Type: Peaceworks

Fragility & Resilience

Why Burma’s Peace Efforts Have Failed to End Its Internal Wars

Why Burma’s Peace Efforts Have Failed to End Its Internal Wars

Friday, October 2, 2020

By: Bertil Lintner

After seven decades of civil war and five failed peace efforts, Burma is no closer than before to reaching an agreement that would bring an end to its many conflicts. Analysis of those previous attempts shows that they all foundered on immutable attitudes on both sides. This report suggests that the peace process needs a fresh start, learning from the past and seeking to resolve underlying political disparities while prioritizing community interests and sustainable development.

Type: Peaceworks

Peace Processes

Digital Inclusion in Mediated Peace Processes: How Technology Can Enhance Participation

Digital Inclusion in Mediated Peace Processes: How Technology Can Enhance Participation

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

By: Andreas T. Hirblinger

Inclusion in peace processes is conventionally understood in “offline” terms, such as being physically present at the negotiation table. However, digital technology can support a mediator’s efforts to integrate a broad variety of perspectives, interests, and needs into a peace process. This report explores the current and future practice of digital inclusion, giving a framework for understanding the possibilities and risks, and providing examples of practical ways digital technologies can contribute to mediated peace processes.

Type: Peaceworks

Mediation, Negotiation & Dialogue

After the Agreement: Why the Oversight of Peace Deals Succeeds or Fails

After the Agreement: Why the Oversight of Peace Deals Succeeds or Fails

Friday, September 25, 2020

By: Aly Verjee

Almost every modern peace agreement has established some type of institution to oversee implementation of the agreement’s provisions and monitor compliance. This report provides a careful examination of monitoring and oversight mechanisms set up in Sierra Leone, Indonesia, Sudan, and South Sudan between 1999 and 2015, and offers a series of key lessons for the design of future monitoring mechanisms.

Type: Peaceworks

Peace Processes

Assessing Afghanistan’s 2019 Presidential Election

Assessing Afghanistan’s 2019 Presidential Election

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

By: Colin Cookman

Afghanistan’s current electoral system structures Afghan political dynamics, shapes election-day outcomes, and influences competition between organized interest groups in Afghanistan. Drawing on a unique set of results data from the September 2019 presidential election and past elections, this report analyzes where and how prospective Afghan voters were able to participate in the 2019 polls, the decision making behind and adjudication of disputes over which votes would be counted as valid, and how the available results compare with political trends evident in prior elections.

Type: Peaceworks

Democracy & Governance