Ukraine: Putin Chooses His ‘Forever War’

Ukraine: Putin Chooses His ‘Forever War’

Thursday, February 24, 2022

By: Ambassador William B. Taylor

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s massive, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has received the immediate response promised by the United States and allied democracies: economic sanctions and solid support for Ukraine’s self-defense. While deterrence failed to divert Putin from war, its escalation remains a vital tool for the community of democracies to support Ukraine. The choice continues to be Putin’s—to stand down or to dive into an abyss of Europe’s most destructive war in eight decades. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Countering Coups: How to Help Rebuild Democratic Rule

Countering Coups: How to Help Rebuild Democratic Rule

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

By: Joseph Sany, Ph.D.;  Aly Verjee;  USIP Staff

The past year’s surge in coups around Africa’s greater Sahel region highlights the need for the United States, other democracies and African governments to improve past practices that often have been ineffective in preventing armed seizures of power and in reversing them when they occur. Many Sahel countries have suffered repeated coups—a warning that we need to strengthen the ways that we shape our efforts at restoring democracy. USIP experts suggest that these transitions must become periods for broad, national dialogues to set agendas for change that can make strengthen democracy and interrupt cycles of failed governance.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global PolicyDemocracy & Governance

Community-Based Armed Groups: A Problem or Solution?

Community-Based Armed Groups: A Problem or Solution?

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

By: Rida Lyammouri;  Jakana Thomas;  Lauren Van Metre

The RESOLVE Network’s multiyear research on Community-Based Armed Groups (CBAGs) has established critical findings for the international community on how to engage, manage and transform violent actors in conflict-affected states. While mitigation efforts tend to target anti-state extremist organizations, understanding the behavior of CBAGs is essential for comprehending complex conflict ecosystems and reassessing approaches toward peace and stability. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionViolent Extremism

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Danger of ‘No Solution’ Messaging

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Danger of ‘No Solution’ Messaging

Thursday, February 17, 2022

By: Ambassador Hesham Youssef

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has made it clear that he has no interest in reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. In a recent interview, he affirmed his longstanding position that he “opposes a Palestinian state and will not allow talks on the line of a Palestinian state.” Echoing Bennett, Israel’s more moderate Alternate Prime Minister Yair Lapid — set to take over in August 2023 — says he, too, will not seek peace talks once he takes office, despite his stated support for a two-state solution.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionPeace Processes

Countering Coups: How to Prevent Armed Seizures of Power

Countering Coups: How to Prevent Armed Seizures of Power

Thursday, February 17, 2022

By: Thomas P. Sheehy;  Edward A. Burrier;  Ena Dion;  Emily Cole

Armies have seized power in five states of the greater Sahel over nine months, cementing this African region as the most pronounced center of a global crisis. The Sahel’s military coups d’état are an acute symptom of poor and authoritarian governance that is breeding extremism and transnational criminality, igniting violence and undermining efforts to build democracies. These crises highlight widening security risks for the Sahel’s 135 million people and ultimately for Europe and the United States. Congress has begun urgently needed policy changes that analysts say should now be accelerated to prevent further coups and to buttress stability and democracy.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

Examining the Military’s Soft Power Challenge in the Southern Philippines

Examining the Military’s Soft Power Challenge in the Southern Philippines

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

By: Joseph Franco

This is a moment of both real and potential transition for the AFP, as the prospect of sustainable peace in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) and at least wearying of non-state threats could enable a transition in force posture from a focus on internal security operations to broader regional defense.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Civilian-Military RelationsPeace Processes

Amid Nigeria’s Violence, a Local Peace Process Advances

Amid Nigeria’s Violence, a Local Peace Process Advances

Thursday, February 10, 2022

By: Matthew Reitman;  Terfa Hemen

Next week opens a high-stakes season of risk for Africa’s demographic giant, Nigeria: the one-year countdown to a presidential election to be held amid the upheavals that have killed or displaced hundreds of thousands of people over the past decade. Nigeria’s escalated regional and local conflicts risk fueling a similar escalation in the country’s pattern of election-related violence. But hope for reducing this combined risk is visible in the work of still-young peacebuilding agencies established by several of Nigeria’s state governments. In one region, these agencies have achieved a peace accord to halt a communal conflict that burned down villages and uprooted thousands of people.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Peace ProcessesFragility & Resilience

Youth Leadership in Peacebuilding: A Catalyst for Advancing U.N. Sustainable Development Goal 16

Youth Leadership in Peacebuilding: A Catalyst for Advancing U.N. Sustainable Development Goal 16

Thursday, February 10, 2022

By: Gbenga Oni;   Paula Porras Reyes

When U.N. Sustainable Development Goal 16 (SDG 16) was adopted in 2015, it was envisioned as a framework for countries experiencing unrest to build peace and promote justice through strong institutions. Efforts have been made at different levels to make this goal a reality, but the outlook is not encouraging. The latest report from the U.N. found over 80 million people had fled war, persecution and conflict in 2020, the highest ever recorded. And every day, 100 people — including women and children — are killed in armed conflicts. With these grim figures and the end-of-decade deadline for SDG16 rapidly approaching, there should be a concerted effort to engage with youth leadership to help get SDG 16 back on track. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

YouthConflict Analysis & Prevention

Houthi Offensive ‘Primary Obstacle’ to Peace in Yemen, Says U.S. Special Envoy Lenderking

Houthi Offensive ‘Primary Obstacle’ to Peace in Yemen, Says U.S. Special Envoy Lenderking

Thursday, February 10, 2022

By: Ashish Kumar Sen

The Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts toward ending the war in Yemen are yielding international consensus on the need for a cease-fire and a more inclusive peace process, U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Timothy Lenderking said on February 8. However, Lenderking added, a military offensive by Houthi rebels is a major obstacle to those peace efforts.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Peace ProcessesConflict Analysis & Prevention

How Putin Turned Religion’s ‘Sharp Power’ Against Ukraine

How Putin Turned Religion’s ‘Sharp Power’ Against Ukraine

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

By: Peter Mandaville, Ph.D.

Long before Russia positioned military forces along Ukraine’s border or menaced its neighbor with cyber-attacks and economic pressure, Moscow deployed another, under-appreciated weapon increasingly used by rising global powers: the transformation of religious soft power into what is known among some scholars of authoritarianism as “sharp power.” 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

ReligionConflict Analysis & Prevention