Sometimes the Good Guys Win: Guatemala’s Shocking 2023 Election

Sometimes the Good Guys Win: Guatemala’s Shocking 2023 Election

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

By: Ambassador Stephen G. McFarland

Guatemala’s 2023 elections were a turning point for the country. Despite a playing field tilted to favor the governing elite, voters elected Bernardo Arévalo, whose Semilla (“Seed”) Movement promised to break the country’s cycles of corruption, restoring democracy and the rule of law. Success was — and remains — far from inevitable. The kleptocracy pushed back hard, using their control of the public prosecutors’ office to open spurious investigations and pursue unsupported claims of electoral fraud.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

A Small State Heavyweight? How Singapore Handles U.S.-China Rivalry

A Small State Heavyweight? How Singapore Handles U.S.-China Rivalry

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

By: Terence Lee, Ph.D.

Alice Ba pertinently observes in her introductory essay to this series that Southeast Asia has become a key arena in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry; regional countries are under growing pressure to choose between the two powers. For Singapore, this competition has provoked a debate on the extent of agency in the conduct of the city-state’s foreign policy. Two perspectives have emerged in this regard.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Vikram Singh on the U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Summit

Vikram Singh on the U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Summit

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

By: Vikram J. Singh

The United States, Japan and the Philippines are holding their first-ever trilateral summit this week. China’s “unprecedented” pressure and aggression over maritime claims will top the agenda. “There’s a fairly clear resolve … to not just let China bully its way to changing the status quo in the region,” says USIP’s Vikram Singh.

Type: Podcast

Critical Minerals in Africa: Strengthening Security, Supporting Development, and Reducing Conflict amid Geopolitical Competition

Critical Minerals in Africa: Strengthening Security, Supporting Development, and Reducing Conflict amid Geopolitical Competition

Tuesday, April 9, 2024

By: USIP Senior Study Group on Critical Minerals in Africa

The United States Institute of Peace convened a senior study group to explore the role Africa plays in the United States’ efforts to diversify US critical mineral supply chains and how new investment in partnerships with African countries could help drive economic development and strengthen peace and security on the African continent. Based on meetings and interviews with relevant technical, operational, and policy experts, the study group developed multiple recommendations for the United States to support mutually beneficial public and private partnerships with African nations.

Type: Report

EconomicsEnvironmentGlobal Policy

U.S., Japan, Philippines Strengthen Strategic Bonds to Counter China

U.S., Japan, Philippines Strengthen Strategic Bonds to Counter China

Thursday, April 4, 2024

By: Brian Harding;  Haroro Ingram;  Andrew Mines

Next week’s U.S.-Philippines-Japan summit comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Manilla and Beijing in the South China Sea, known as the West Philippines Sea in the Philippines. Last month alone saw two incidents of China’s so- called “gray zone” activities, with Chinese ships colliding with Philippines Coast Guard vessels on March 5 and blasting a Philippines supply boat with a water cannon on March 23. These disputes in the West Philippines Sea — an issue on which U.S., Japanese and Philippine interests closely align — will feature prominently when President Joe Biden, Philippine President Ferdinando Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minster Fumio Kishida meet in Washington on April 11.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Senegal just saved its democracy. That helps all West Africa.

Senegal just saved its democracy. That helps all West Africa.

Thursday, April 4, 2024

By: Joseph Sany, Ph.D.

Senegal’s dramatic transfer of presidential power this week highlights that West Africa, routinely seen as a zone of democratic erosion and failure, includes an arc of resilient coastal democracies — from Senegal to Liberia, Ghana and Nigeria. The Senegalese people’s resolute reversal of last month’s constitutional crisis shows that U.S. and international efforts to counter violent extremism and military coups can reinforce a potent West African democratic constituency. Vital next steps include these: supporting Senegal’s democratic forces in shifting from “campaign mode” to inclusive governance; promoting economic investment to bolster youth employment and rule-of-law reforms; and energizing a West African democratic alliance against extremism and coups.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Indigenous Pathways to Peace

Indigenous Pathways to Peace

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

By: Binalakshmi Nepram;  Julia Schiwal

Many of the world’s Indigenous peoples live in unstable areas, struggling to survive as conflicts, transnational organized criminal networks and extractive projects upend their lives and livelihoods. Unfortunately, peace processes in these contexts are often negotiated at high political levels without the inclusion of Indigenous peoples. This can undermine the chances for success, as Indigenous peoples are a crucial population in some of the world's longest-running conflicts. But even further, excluding Indigenous people means overlooking how Indigenous traditions, rituals, and religious and political practices can help advance peace and resolve deadly conflict.

Type: Analysis

Peace Processes

How a Fractured Myanmar is Navigating U.S.-China Rivalry

How a Fractured Myanmar is Navigating U.S.-China Rivalry

Wednesday, April 3, 2024

By: Phyu Hnin

As the rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, Southeast Asian countries have been forced to navigate this growing power competition. The challenge has proven formidable even for those with strong governance and stability. For Myanmar — where a civil conflict between the ruling military junta and a loose alliance of resistance groups recently entered its fourth year — developing a cohesive approach to navigating U.S.-China competition might seem unattainable and unimportant in the current moment.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Asfandyar Mir on Why ISIS-K Attacked Moscow

Asfandyar Mir on Why ISIS-K Attacked Moscow

Monday, April 1, 2024

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

ISIS-K’s recent attack on the Russian capital was, in part, intended to assert the organization’s growing capacity to inflict terror beyond its home base of Afghanistan. “By reaching Moscow, ISIS-K is trying to signal it has the geographic reach to hit anywhere in the world,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.

Type: Podcast