Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
After Taiwan’s Election, China Is Now Ratcheting Up the Pressure
Beijing is intensifying its pressure on Taiwan’s freshly elected president, William Lai Ching-te. Instead of relying on conventional military or economic pressures, however, Beijing has employed multifaceted tools of coercion to demonstrate disapproval of the January election results. Although China is carefully calibrating its behavior to avoid provoking Taipei or the United States, Beijing’s efforts to gradually change the status quo and erase the traditional boundaries between Taiwan and China could lead to escalated tensions and unintentional conflict.
Taiwan’s Democracy Prevailed Despite China’s Election Interference
The election of Lai Ching-te, or William Lai, as Taiwan’s next president despite firm opposition from China is a positive sign that democracy is alive and well on the island nation. Nevertheless, the fact that Lai, whom China has deemed a “troublemaker” and “separatist,” won by a narrow margin, and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan, will be seen in Beijing as an acceptable outcome, as it restricts Lai’s ability to advance his agenda and reveals the limits of the DPP’s appeal.
Four Takeaways from China’s Tour of the Pacific Islands
In late May, as President Biden was wrapping up his visit to Asia, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, launched a 10-day tour of the Pacific Islands. Almost immediately, news broke that Wang had unexpectedly proposed a sweeping multilateral agreement to deepen Beijing’s security and economic ties with the region, then quickly withdrew it due to lack of support from the Pacific Island countries. This followed a controversial Solomon Islands-China security pact signed in April that set off alarm bells in the United States and Australia over China’s efforts to establish a security presence in the Pacific Islands region.
Where Does China’s Belt and Road Initiative Stand Six Years Later?
Few projects illustrate the risks of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) better than the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka. In 2017, unsustainable debt loads drove Colombo to give China a 99-year lease and controlling equity stake in the Hambantota port, while local communities protested the loss of sovereignty and international observers worried about China’s strategic intentions. The Hambantota case may be an outlier, but it has become a “canary in the coalmine,” and a warning sign to other BRI participants about what their future may hold. Increasingly, countries around the world are taking steps to reassert their influence over BRI projects—and Beijing has taken note.
Burma’s Balancing Act on Rakhine
In a reversal of past policy, Burma’s government last week signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the United Nations to facilitate the repatriation of Rohingya refugees back to Burma. This unexpected move builds on the momentum established last month, when Burma hosted a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) delegation and invited the U.N. to assist in the repatriation of the Rohingya and the rehabilitation of Rakhine state.
A Primer on Multi-track Diplomacy: How Does it Work?
If you asked someone to define diplomacy, chances are they would describe two governments meeting, shaking hands, sitting at a table, and negotiating an official agreement. But that more traditional view of diplomacy is only one iteration, often called track 1 diplomacy. Diplomacy can occur in a number of forms, or “tracks,” that engage various participants, from academics to policymakers to heads of state. In an increasingly complex global environment, peacebuilders and diplomats looking to address difficult policy challenges are increasingly incorporating track 1.5 and track 2 dialogues—often referred to as “back channel” diplomacy—into their strategies.
Pro-Taiwan Pacific Island Leaders Show Cracks in China’s Appeal
Most Pacific Island countries have formal diplomatic relations with Beijing. But at both the local and national level, some leaders are raising concerns about Chinese bribery, violations of sovereignty, clandestine intelligence operations and political interference in their countries, as well as the possibility that China may invade Taiwan. As Beijing forces its agenda on Pacific Island countries and competes with the United States for influence in the region, Washington should lead by example and build partnerships with the Pacific Islands that emphasize consulting with them as equals and focusing on areas of common interest, like climate change.
Xi Jinping’s Visit to Myanmar: What Are the Implications?
From January 17-18, the chairman of China’s Communist Party, Xi Jinping, travelled to Myanmar to promote bilateral ties and advance construction of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). The visit saw the two sides commit to an ambitious economic agenda and building what China terms a “community of shared destiny.” The declarations of cooperation, however, failed to provide any clarity on how CMEC will address the countless questions and concerns that Myanmar has struggled with since its independence in 1948—issues likely to profoundly affect the two countries’ joint endeavors.
Tensions over Taiwan Rise with Tsai’s U.S. Stopover
President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan transits this week through the United States, stopping in New York on her way to Guatemala and Belize, and in California on her way home. Tsai has made six stopovers since she took office in 2016, but this is the first since July 2019. The stopovers are not official visits, but Tsai is expected to meet Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy in California. Beijing has made it known it fiercely opposes the stopover and threatened to retaliate if McCarthy and Tsai meet.
Three Key Takeaways from the Biden-Xi Summit
With the U.S.-China relationship at its lowest point in decades, the American and Chinese leaders met this week on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Indonesia for their first face-to-face summit since Joe Biden was elected. The deteriorating bilateral relationship became particularly concerning in August when China cut key lines of communication between Washington and Beijing, including on critical military and climate issues, following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.