Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Disinformation Casts a Shadow Over Global Elections
This year will be one of the most consequential in recent memory, as more than 50 elections will take place in countries across the world covering nearly 2 billion people. With the role of technology increasing in a multitude of sectors, communications technology (i.e., social media platforms and messaging apps) and artificial intelligence (AI) are poised to have varying levels of impact on the elections in 2024. Without strong collaboration and planning between peacebuilders, civil society, technology companies and governments, the fallout from unmanaged technology use around the elections will be far reaching, from an increasing inability to discern fact from fiction to distrust in democratic political processes.
A Role for AI in Peacebuilding
Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in fall 2022, there has been a tremendous amount of global attention on the risks and benefits of artificial intelligence (AI). With so many unknowns about the capacity of private companies and governments to harness this technology for peace and security, it is difficult for the public and private sectors to identify a clear and straightforward path on addressing AI’s challenges. In this evolving environment, peacebuilding organizations can and should play a critical role in engaging with companies, multilateral institutions and governments on AI development and application to advise and shape its uses to advance peace and mitigate societal harm that could contribute to conflicts.
Heather Ashby on How the Israel-Hamas War Affects Russia and Ukraine
The conflict in the Middle East is helping divert attention away from Russia’s war in Ukraine. And despite rumors of peace talks, USIP’s Heather Ashby says neither side seems willing to budge: “I don’t think people should be optimistic that there will be negotiations … even with a third party trying to bring the sides together.”
What BRICS Expansion Means for the Bloc’s Founding Members
After more than 40 countries expressed interest in joining, the question of whether BRICS would admit new members was finally answered during the group’s summit last week. Despite pre-summit reports of division over the potential expansion, leaders from the five-nation bloc announced that Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would join the group starting in 2024.
Russia’s Africa Summit — and a Future for Wagner
Ever since Russia’s Wagner mercenary group jolted Vladimir Putin’s regime with its brief mutiny in Russia, foggy uncertainty has surrounded Wagner’s future roles — whether domestically, as part of Putin’s web of armed forces, as a fighting force in Ukraine, or as a Kremlin tool of influence and profit in Africa. The past week offers the most prominent sign yet of how Wagner’s flamboyant chief, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, is pressing to retain an African role. While mostly shoved out of public view, Prigozhin was able to appear at Putin’s Russia-Africa Summit to meet African contacts and re-declare his relevance.
Heather Ashby on Moscow’s Diplomatic Approach to the Russia-Africa Summit
After pulling out of a U.N.-backed grain deal, Russia may be looking for ways to ship more grain and fertilizers to African countries ahead of the Russia-Africa Summit. But the summit’s success is far from certain, “not only because of the war in Ukraine, but because Russia hasn’t lived up to its previous promises,” says USIP’s Heather Ashby.
Russia’s Wagner Uprising Will Force a Kremlin Reshuffle in Africa
Three weeks after Russia’s Wagner Group mounted an armed uprising against authorities in Moscow, the still-swirling fallout will force changes in the mercenary group’s operations in Africa. The open outbreak of conflict among rival armed factions that Vladimir Putin sponsors as props of his autocratic regime will now force him to find new managers for his strategy of seeking influence and resources through strongmen and warlords in unstable African countries. These developments open an opportunity for Africans and the West to better illuminate Russia’s corrupt, often brutal methods in Africa, and their consequences.
What Does the Wagner Mutiny Mean for Putin and His War on Ukraine?
Before Vladimir Putin launched his illegal war on Ukraine, the Russian-funded paramilitary Wagner Group was an infamous, shadowy tool of Moscow’s foreign policy, advancing its objectives in the Middle East and Africa. After Putin’s February 2022 invasion, the private miliary company — led by Putin’s former chef, Yevgeny Prigozhin — became a critical cog of the Russian military’s war effort. But as cracks emerged across Russian society and within the elite over the war, Prigozhin has been one of the most outspoken critics, alienating his adversaries in Russia’s defense ministry. Eventually, Putin sided with Priogzhin’s opponents ordering Wagner to be officially subsumed within Ministry of Defense.
What You Need to Know About Russia’s New Foreign Policy Concept
On March 31, Russia released a new “foreign policy concept,” articulating Moscow’s global priorities and focus for the future. The Kremlin’s last foreign policy concept was released in 2016, two years after its invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea. In the years since, Moscow has demonstrated its increasing disdain for the rules-based international order and antagonism toward the United States and its European NATO partners. The 2023 document is Russia’s first comprehensive foreign policy statement since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, revealing how Moscow sees the war a year later and its vision for an emergent multipolar world.
Xi and Putin Flaunt Deepening Ties, Flout the U.S.-led Order
Thirteen months after Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing are continuing to deepen their ties even as China has sought to portray itself as a neutral player in the war. This week’s summit between Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin comes on the heels of the International Criminal Court’s warrant for Putin for war crimes. For Putin, the summit demonstrated that despite Western sanction and opprobrium, Russia is not an isolated pariah state. Meanwhile, Xi used the summit to further the image he has tried to burnish of Beijing as a peacemaker and advance his vision of an alternative multilateral order, breaking away from the U.S.-led system.