Amid War in the Middle East, India-Israel Ties Reach New Milestone

Amid War in the Middle East, India-Israel Ties Reach New Milestone

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

By: Daniel Markey, Ph.D.

India’s official response to the Israel-Hamas war reflects a meaningful and likely durable strategic tilt toward Israel by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Yet India’s shift should not be misinterpreted as a broader alignment with the United States or any other “camp” in this bitter contest. The maxim that Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has repeated in other fraught geopolitical contexts holds equally true for India’s stance in the Middle East: “Do not think it’s necessary for India to join any axis. India is entitled to make its own choices which will be a balance of its values and interests.”

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

The Persistent Threat of Nuclear Crises Among China, India and Pakistan

The Persistent Threat of Nuclear Crises Among China, India and Pakistan

Wednesday, February 1, 2023

By: Daniel Markey, Ph.D.

Southern Asia — India, Pakistan and China — is the only place on earth where three nuclear-armed states have recently engaged in violent confrontations along their contested borders. As a USIP senior study group report concluded last year, the problem of nuclear stability in Southern Asia is getting harder to manage because of geopolitical changes, such as rising India-China border tensions, as well as evolving military technologies, including growing nuclear arsenals and more capable delivery systems. Unfortunately, in the time since that senior study group completed its work, little has happened to revise its worrisome conclusion or to prevent the most likely triggering causes of a nuclearized crisis in Southern Asia. To the contrary, there are some good reasons to fear that the situation in Southern Asia has even deteriorated over the past year.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Dan Markey on the Quad Leaders’ Summit

Dan Markey on the Quad Leaders’ Summit

Thursday, September 30, 2021

By: Daniel Markey, Ph.D.

USIP’s Dan Markey says the growth of the Quad — a partnership between the United States, Australia, India and Japan — can be seen as a counter to China, but “instead of being principally a military organization, the Quad … will focus on more positive ventures” such as vaccine diplomacy, climate change and technology.

Type: Podcast

Global Policy

Three Things to Know About China-India Tensions

Three Things to Know About China-India Tensions

Thursday, October 19, 2023

By: Daniel Markey, Ph.D.;  Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.

Relations between the two Asian giants have soured over the last decade, particular following a 2020 border brawl between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley. While there are credible concerns that these nuclear powers’ ties are trending in the wrong direction — particularly as both sides continue provocative actions — neither Beijing nor New Delhi wants to see an escalation toward a more serious conflict. For its part, the United States has sought to deepen its security and economic relationship with India as the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies and considers it a vital partner in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

What You Need to Know About the I2U2

What You Need to Know About the I2U2

Thursday, July 28, 2022

By: Daniel Markey, Ph.D.;  Ambassador Hesham Youssef

As part of his visit earlier this month to the Middle East, President Biden participated in the first leaders summit of a new grouping made up of Israel, India, the United Arab Emirates and the United States. Known as the I2U2, the countries’ foreign ministers formed the bloc in the fall of 2021 to deepen technological and private sector collaboration in the region and tackle transnational challenges in six focus areas: water, energy, transportation, space, health and food security. Beyond the announcement of a food security initiative and a hybrid renewable generation facility for India, little was revealed about what’s next for I2U2.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Bangladesh’s Balancing Act Amid the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Bangladesh’s Balancing Act Amid the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Friday, April 1, 2022

By: Anu Anwar;  Geoffrey Macdonald, Ph.D.;  Daniel Markey, Ph.D.;  Jumaina Siddiqui

As the Biden administration implements its new Indo-Pacific strategy, Bangladesh’s relationships with neighboring India and China are drawing renewed interest from U.S. policymakers. U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland visited Dhaka in late March and signed a draft defense cooperation agreement; last year, Special President Envoy for Climate John Kerry also went to Dhaka in advance of the Leaders’ Summit on Climate. At the same time, Washington retains concerns over democratic backsliding, human rights abuses and constraints on free and open electoral competition in the country. Experts Anu Anwar, Geoffrey Macdonald, Daniel Markey and Jumaina Siddiqui assess the factors shaping Bangladesh’s relations with its neighbors and the United States.

Type: Analysis

EconomicsEnvironmentGlobal Policy

Another Clash on the India-China Border Underscores Risks of Militarization

Another Clash on the India-China Border Underscores Risks of Militarization

Tuesday, December 20, 2022

By: Sameer P. Lalwani, Ph.D.;  Daniel Markey, Ph.D.;  Vikram J. Singh

On December 9, hundreds of Indian and Chinese forces clashed along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the roughly 2,100 miles contested boundary that separates northern India from China. Neither side used firearms, and no deaths were reported, but both Indian and Chinese forces sustained injuries. The skirmish was the worst since the summer of 2020, when deadly fighting in the Galwan Valley led to the most significant border escalation in over four decades. In the wake of those 2020 clashes, India and China held 17 rounds of military talks — but have been unable to reach terms for disengagement across key areas of the disputed border.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

China, India and Pakistan: Tenuous Stability Risks Nuclear War

China, India and Pakistan: Tenuous Stability Risks Nuclear War

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

By: Daniel Markey, Ph.D.;  Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.;  Vikram J. Singh

Over the past decade, long-standing disputes between the nuclear-armed states of Southern Asia have repeatedly veered into deeper hostility and violence. These regional developments reflect and reinforce new and significant geopolitical shifts, starting with the global strategic competition between China and the United States. In Southern Asia, relations between the United States and Pakistan have frayed even as U.S.-India and China-Pakistan ties have strengthened. The region now faces deepening and more multifaceted polarization. Global competition adds fuel to regional conflict and reduces options for crisis mediation.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

A Closer Look at Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy

A Closer Look at Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy

Monday, March 7, 2022

By: Carla Freeman, Ph.D.;  Daniel Markey, Ph.D.;  Vikram J. Singh

On February 11, the White House announced its new strategy for a “free and open Indo-Pacific” region, which pledges support for regional connectivity, trade and investment, and deepening bilateral and multilateral partnerships. USIP’s Daniel Markey, Vikram J. Singh and Carla Freeman analyze the key priorities outlined in the document, and the strategic dynamics between the United States, India and China in the region.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy