In Africa, Here’s How to Respond to Russia’s Brutal Wagner Group

In Africa, Here’s How to Respond to Russia’s Brutal Wagner Group

Thursday, April 6, 2023

By: Joseph Sany, Ph.D.

The United States is rightly concerned at the growing role in Africa of Russia’s Wagner Group, which operates as an auxiliary of President Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian regime. Where African governments have asked Wagner for security assistance, the group deploys military, economic and political interventions that deepen violence, corruption and authoritarian governance. Wagner’s role disrupts Africans’ efforts to move their countries from violent conflict to stability. Yet many Western responses are ineffective, even playing into Kremlin messaging to Africa and the Global South. An effective alternative requires that we listen to Africans’ voices and respond based on our shared values.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

U.S.-China Rivalry: The Dangers of Compelling Countries to Take Sides

U.S.-China Rivalry: The Dangers of Compelling Countries to Take Sides

Thursday, March 30, 2023

By: Gregg A. Brazinsky

As the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies — with some speculating a new Cold War is in the offing — many Asian countries are looking on with concern. If Washington seeks to maintain its role as a global leader, it should be judicious in how it contests Chinese influence in Asia, which seems likely to be the key battleground of the new Sino-American rivalry. The United States must understand that Asian countries do not want to be forced to constantly manage competing pressures from superpowers. Cold War-era Sino-American competition demonstrates that forcing Asian countries to choose sides can ultimately be counterproductive and undermines one of the United States’ chief attributes in this global competition.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Positivism for Peace: Reforming the International System

Positivism for Peace: Reforming the International System

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

By: Andrew Cheatham

Among many insightful and concerning points raised by the U.S. intelligence community’s 2023 threat assessment, it notes that "great powers, rising regional powers, as well as an evolving array of non-state actors, will vie for dominance in the global order … [and] compete to set the emerging conditions and the rules that will shape that order for decades to come.” China’s efforts to supplant U.S. dominance of global governance, along with divisions in the international community over the war in Ukraine have brought to the fore questions over the utility and viability of today’s international order.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Taiwan and the United States Share Key Interests in the North Pacific

Taiwan and the United States Share Key Interests in the North Pacific

Monday, March 27, 2023

By: Camilla Pohle

In September 2022, USIP published a report on “China’s Influence on the Freely Associated States of the Northern Pacific,” which consist of the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Republic of Palau. “China’s engagement in these countries threatens [U.S.] interests both locally and in the broader Pacific region,” said the preface to the report, which makes the case that strengthening U.S. relations with the Freely Associated States (FAS) is essential to secure U.S. interests and prevent China from increasing its influence in the region. This Senior Study Group report largely focuses on the interests of the United States, China and the FAS, but also has significant implications for Taiwan.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Xi and Putin Flaunt Deepening Ties, Flout the U.S.-led Order

Xi and Putin Flaunt Deepening Ties, Flout the U.S.-led Order

Friday, March 24, 2023

By: Heather Ashby, Ph.D.;  Mary Glantz, Ph.D.;  Jennifer Staats, Ph.D.;  Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.

Thirteen months after Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing are continuing to deepen their ties even as China has sought to portray itself as a neutral player in the war. This week’s summit between Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin comes on the heels of the International Criminal Court’s warrant for Putin for war crimes. For Putin, the summit demonstrated that despite Western sanction and opprobrium, Russia is not an isolated pariah state. Meanwhile, Xi used the summit to further the image he has tried to burnish of Beijing as a peacemaker and advance his vision of an alternative multilateral order, breaking away from the U.S.-led system.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Support for Myanmar’s Junta Only Prolongs the Country’s Conflict

Support for Myanmar’s Junta Only Prolongs the Country’s Conflict

Thursday, March 23, 2023

By: Billy Ford

Myanmar’s coup regime, whose principal strategy for dealing with the country’s resistance movement is blunt, unrelenting brutality, benefits from three misconceptions prevalent in the international community: First, that consolidation of the military’s power is essentially inevitable; second, that absence of the generals’ regime would lead to a power vacuum and failed state; and third, that long-term military control is preferable to the status quo and would lead to stability.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

Keith Mines on Securing Haiti’s Political Future

Keith Mines on Securing Haiti’s Political Future

Monday, March 20, 2023

By: Keith Mines

President Biden recently asked Canada to lead a security force to stabilize Haiti. While neither side “wants to do this as something that just props up the [interim] government,” a lack of action “doesn’t mean 11 million people go away. It just means we’re not paying attention,” says USIP’s Keith Mines.

Type: Podcast

Global Policy

What You Need to Know About China’s Saudi-Iran Deal

What You Need to Know About China’s Saudi-Iran Deal

Thursday, March 16, 2023

By: Adam Gallagher;  Sarhang Hamasaeed;  Garrett Nada

Iran and Saudi Arabia announced last Friday a Chinese-brokered deal to restore relations. After decades of enmity and a formal cutting of ties in 2016, the rapprochement has been touted as a momentous development in the region. But how it ultimately impacts the Middle East remains a very open question, as the long adversarial powers are fighting a proxy war in Yemen and continue to support opposing sides across the region. Amid perceived U.S. retrenchment from the Middle East, the deal is a diplomatic win for China as it increasingly seeks to present an alternative vision to the U.S.-led global order.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

China’s Media Propaganda in Africa: A Strategic Assessment

China’s Media Propaganda in Africa: A Strategic Assessment

Thursday, March 16, 2023

By: Joshua Eisenman

Over the last decade, partnerships with developing countries have become central to China’s geostrategic objectives. In Africa specifically, China has made significant investments to secure favorable media coverage to promote a positive view of China, to counter the influence of the United States, and to assert and normalize China’s territorial claims over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and other contested areas. This report examines China’s investments in Africa’s media sector, assesses their effect, and makes recommendations for how the United States can respond to China’s influence campaigns.

Type: Special Report

Global Policy

Before the Next Shock, the World Needs a ‘Marshall Plan’ for Food Insecurity

Before the Next Shock, the World Needs a ‘Marshall Plan’ for Food Insecurity

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

By: Adam Gallagher;  Arif Husain, Ph.D.

In recent years, the world has seen a host of interconnected challenges, with a crisis in one part of the world setting off epiphenomenal emergencies elsewhere. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut off many countries from their main supply of wheat and coarse grains, disrupting global food supply chains that were already stressed by the COVID pandemic. This led to further food insecurity in regions of the world, like East Africa, that were already dealing with starvation and malnutrition due, in part, to severe drought brought on by climate change.

Type: Analysis

EconomicsGlobal Policy