A Perilous Moment for Bangladesh’s Democracy

A Perilous Moment for Bangladesh’s Democracy

Monday, March 4, 2024

By: Geoffrey Macdonald, Ph.D.

Bangladesh’s parliamentary elections in January cemented the country’s transition to a “dominant-party” political system. Aided by an opposition boycott on Election Day, the Awami League (AL) extended its 15 years in power with another five-year term, which will soon make Bangladesh’s prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, the world’s longest continuously serving female head of government in contemporary history. But political dominance comes with risk. Around the world, dominant-party systems often develop common maladies that harm the country’s governance. Ensuring competition across politics, government and the economy can forestall these problems.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Myanmar: New Data Show Wide Support for Unity Government

Myanmar: New Data Show Wide Support for Unity Government

Thursday, February 29, 2024

By: Jangai Jap, Ph.D.;  Amy H. Liu, Ph.D.

The three-month offensive by Myanmar’s alliance of disparate ethnic armed groups has weakened the military regime more than at any time since it seized power three years ago. This highlights a question for international policymakers: Could the anti-coup forces stabilize Myanmar? New public opinion data bolsters evidence that the National Unity Government (NUG) — which combines representatives elected in the 2020 election and ethnic minority leaders — has a solid basis to lead such an effort, holding strong popular support across Myanmar’s numerous ethnic groups. Such stabilization will depend on the NUG’s ability to deepen its inclusivity and responsiveness and broaden its political coalition.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

In the Pacific, Corruption and Poor Policing Open a Door to China

In the Pacific, Corruption and Poor Policing Open a Door to China

Thursday, February 8, 2024

By: Gordon Peake, Ph.D.

After the Pacific’s largest island nation, Papua New Guinea, recently suffered deadly rioting that included police, an official last week announced a Chinese offer to help strengthen its police force. That sequence exemplifies a rising challenge for democracy and stability in the Pacific: Many island nations suffer corruption and deficient policing that undermines the rule of law. This gap in responsive governance lets China seek influence through technical assistance drawn from its authoritarian model of policing. In response, democracies must reshape narrow, outdated approaches to security assistance.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceJustice, Security & Rule of Law

Suddenly, Senegal Is a New Risk for Democracy in Africa

Suddenly, Senegal Is a New Risk for Democracy in Africa

Thursday, February 8, 2024

By: Ambassador Johnnie Carson;  Joseph Sany, Ph.D.

The sudden actions by Senegal’s president to postpone this month’s presidential election by 10 months threaten to seriously undermine political stability and peace in a nation that has been a resilient democracy in West Africa, where multiple military coups d’état have occurred in recent years. This move poses risks of authoritarianism, violence and economic setbacks for Senegal’s 17 million people, and deeper regional insecurity. Friends of Senegal and democracy, in the United States, Africa and beyond, must unite behind the clear desire of Senegal’s people to maintain peaceful, freely elected democracy under its constitution.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Liberia Shows a Path Toward Democracy in West Africa

Liberia Shows a Path Toward Democracy in West Africa

Thursday, February 1, 2024

By: Matthew Reitman;  Katie Todd

Liberia’s presidential inauguration last week, a peaceful transfer of power between opposed political parties, strengthens its postwar democracy — an achievement that we should highlight as an instructive counterpoint to West Africa’s military coups and other erosions of democracy. While 5 million Liberians confront crises including poverty, corruption and poor infrastructure, their progress in stabilizing from decades of war offers lessons for us all. Liberians’ vital strengths in this peaceful transfer include strong political will, reflected in record voter turnout, and a potent civic history of nonviolent movements for change, buttressed by U.S. support in countering corruption.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Russia’s War on Moldova Will Be Political in 2024. And Then?

Russia’s War on Moldova Will Be Political in 2024. And Then?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: James Rupert

As Ukraine defends its independence and democracy against Russia’s invasion, tiny Moldova confronts a parallel Russian “hybrid war” — and the past 12 weeks have sharpened this battle for Moldova in 2024. Moldova advanced its accession to the European Union and joined EU sanctions against Russians driving the war on Ukraine. Moldova’s government scheduled a referendum to ratify the country’s future as a European democracy after more than 150 years as a militarized frontier of Russian empires. Russia’s malign uses of information, election interference and capacity to trigger a real war — a second front against Europe — heighten the urgency to strengthen Moldova’s resilience and energize its pro-democracy constituency in 2024.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

Wanted: A Reset of Haiti Policy

Wanted: A Reset of Haiti Policy

Thursday, January 25, 2024

By: Georges Fauriol

Haiti’s governance vacuum triggered by President Jovenel Moïse’s assassination in July 2021 shows few encouraging signs. Violence, notably around Port-au-Prince, has not only grown in lethality, but politically has become the central issue shaping domestic and international discussions. The imminent expiration of acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s term in office on February 7 means Haiti’s political crisis is on course to become more intransigent.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

Taiwan’s Democracy Prevailed Despite China’s Election Interference

Taiwan’s Democracy Prevailed Despite China’s Election Interference

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

By: Naiyu Kuo;  Jennifer Staats, Ph.D.

The election of Lai Ching-te, or William Lai, as Taiwan’s next president despite firm opposition from China is a positive sign that democracy is alive and well on the island nation. Nevertheless, the fact that Lai, whom China has deemed a “troublemaker” and “separatist,” won by a narrow margin, and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan, will be seen in Beijing as an acceptable outcome, as it restricts Lai’s ability to advance his agenda and reveals the limits of the DPP’s appeal.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

De Constructor de Paz a Presidente: los Desafíos que enfrenta Arévalo en Guatemala

De Constructor de Paz a Presidente: los Desafíos que enfrenta Arévalo en Guatemala

Thursday, January 18, 2024

By: Mary Speck, Ph.D.

El nuevo presidente de Guatemala, Bernardo Arévalo, ha desafiado repetidamente las expectativas: primero, al terminar inesperadamente en segundo lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales el pasado junio; luego, al ganar la segunda vuelta por un amplio margen en agosto, y finalmente, al sobrevivir a una avalancha de retos legales antes de su toma de posesión el 14 de enero.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

From Peace Builder to President: The Challenges Facing Guatemala’s Arévalo

From Peace Builder to President: The Challenges Facing Guatemala’s Arévalo

Thursday, January 18, 2024

By: Mary Speck, Ph.D.

Guatemala’s new president, Bernardo Arévalo, has repeatedly defied the odds: first by unexpectedly surging to second place in his country’s first-round presidential elections last June; next by winning the final round by a landslide in August, and then by surviving an onslaught of legal challenges in the run-up to his January 14th inauguration.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance