Ukraine War Fallout Will Damage Fragile States and the Poor

Ukraine War Fallout Will Damage Fragile States and the Poor

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

By: William Byrd, Ph.D.

The world is gripped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine — already the most destructive European conventional military conflict since World War II. The damage being done most tragically to Ukraine, indirectly to Europe (not least the burden of refugee inflows) and to Russia (including as a result of crushing sanctions) is only too obvious. But the repercussions will be wider — for the global economy more generally and disproportionately for poorer countries, especially those affected by conflict and state fragility.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global PolicyFragility & Resilience

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Helps the Taliban and Makes Afghans Worse Off

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Helps the Taliban and Makes Afghans Worse Off

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

By: Scott Worden

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an acute disaster for Ukraine and Europe. But it also has a profound geopolitical impact — one that will have ripple effects for the major humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan. An active war in Europe is bad news for Afghanistan, as this draws away resources, sympathy and attention from the millions of Afghans that are also struggling to get cash, food and protection from human rights abuse. And the Taliban stand to benefit, since they no longer appear to be the world’s most notorious aggressor and will gain political space to consolidate their control over the country.  

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal PolicyHuman Rights

Afghanistan’s Frozen Foreign Exchange Reserves: What Happened, What’s Next

Afghanistan’s Frozen Foreign Exchange Reserves: What Happened, What’s Next

Tuesday, March 1, 2022

By: William Byrd, Ph.D.

President Biden’s executive order blocking more than $7 billion of Afghan foreign currency reserves held at the U.S. central bank left confusion and consternation in its wake. And no wonder: The administration was seeking to balance a complex set of legal, foreign policy and political considerations.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Economics & EnvironmentFragility & Resilience

Afghan Taliban Views on Legitimate Islamic Governance

Afghan Taliban Views on Legitimate Islamic Governance

Monday, February 28, 2022

By: Clark B. Lombardi;  Andrew F. March

Since their return to power in August 2021, Taliban leaders have not yet articulated a clear vision of how they plan to structure the Afghan state. Some observers have expressed guarded optimism that the Taliban can be persuaded to move away from the more authoritarian and illiberal aspects of their first regime. This report is intended to help these negotiators—whether from the international community or Afghan civil society—find possible compromises between the Taliban’s vision of “true” Islamic governance and liberal democracy and respect for human rights.

Type: Peaceworks

Mediation, Negotiation & Dialogue

Asfandyar Mir on the Pakistani Taliban and Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Tensions

Asfandyar Mir on the Pakistani Taliban and Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Tensions

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

As Pakistani leaders quarrel with the neighboring Afghan Taliban over the demarcation of their shared border, USIP’s Asfandyar Mir says Pakistan’s own Taliban insurgency has “been boosted by the example of the Afghan Taliban … if things continue to escalate over the medium term, things become very difficult for Pakistan.”

Type: Podcast

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Taliban Are Collecting Revenue — But How Are They Spending It?

Taliban Are Collecting Revenue — But How Are They Spending It?

Wednesday, February 2, 2022

By: William Byrd, Ph.D.

Although economic and humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan continue to deteriorate, the Taliban have taken some positive steps toward financial stability by publishing a fiscally responsible three-month budget and raising considerable amounts of domestic revenue — especially through customs duties, which have risen with a crackdown on corruption. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Economics & Environment

After the Taliban’s Takeover: Pakistan’s TTP problem

After the Taliban’s Takeover: Pakistan’s TTP problem

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

In 2021, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency escalated its challenge against Pakistan. Operating from bases in Afghanistan, and with a growing presence inside Pakistan, the group mounted an increasing number of attacks against Pakistani security forces — as well as against some critical Chinese interests in Pakistan. The insurgency also showed renewed political strength by bringing in splintered factions and improving internal cohesion. Additionally, al-Qaeda signaled its continued alliance with the TTP. On Tuesday, after an attack by the TTP on the police in Pakistan’s capital city of Islamabad, Pakistan’s Interior Minister warned that more attacks by the group are likely.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionViolent Extremism

Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute Heats Up

Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute Heats Up

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.;  Ambassador Richard Olson;  Andrew Watkins

In at least two incidents in late December and early January, Afghan Taliban soldiers intervened to block an ongoing Pakistani project to erect fencing along the shared border between Afghanistan and Pakistan — the demarcation of which prior Afghan governments have never accepted. Despite attempts to resolve the issue diplomatically, and the Taliban’s dependence on Pakistan as a bridge to the international community, both sides remain at odds over the fence. USIP’s Richard Olson, Asfandyar Mir and Andrew Watkins assess the implications of this border dispute for Afghanistan and Pakistan’s bilateral relationship and the region at large.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

How to Mitigate Afghanistan’s Economic and Humanitarian Crises

How to Mitigate Afghanistan’s Economic and Humanitarian Crises

Tuesday, January 4, 2022

By: William Byrd, Ph.D.

Afghanistan is teetering on the brink of a famine and economic collapse. Millions face the prospect of falling into poverty, starvation and even death. On December 22, the U.S. Treasury Department and United Nations Security Council provided sanctions relief for humanitarian assistance flowing to Afghanistan. USIP’s William Byrd says these actions are welcome but insufficient and discusses what more can be done to ensure the delivery of essential, life-saving aid to the Afghan people.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Fragility & Resilience