For Sahel Stability, U.S. Needs Broader, Coordinated Policy

For Sahel Stability, U.S. Needs Broader, Coordinated Policy

Thursday, March 21, 2024

By: Kris Inman;  Matthew Reitman

As military coups and violent insurgencies have spread across Africa’s Sahel over the past decade, U.S. policy has professed to recognize and address their interconnections across the region, notably through the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership. Yet this effort remains insufficient to meet the scale and complexity of the violence and the underlying failures of governance.

Type: Analysis

Violent Extremism

For Peace in Sahel, African and U.S. Experts Urge Focused Partnership

For Peace in Sahel, African and U.S. Experts Urge Focused Partnership

Thursday, February 22, 2024

By: Katia Cavigelli;  James Rupert

The past month has sharpened a decade-old question for U.S. and international policymakers: How best, in 2024, to help stabilize what is now the world’s largest single zone of military rule and violent conflicts — Africa’s Sahel region? After three military-ruled Sahel states withdrew from the West African regional community in January, those juntas last week proclaimed an alliance aimed at resisting international pressures, including those for their return to elected civilian rule. Former U.S. and African officials yesterday urged what they called vital changes in U.S. and allied policies to prevent a dangerous spread of the Sahel’s crises.

Type: Analysis

Fragility & Resilience

Suddenly, Senegal Is a New Risk for Democracy in Africa

Suddenly, Senegal Is a New Risk for Democracy in Africa

Thursday, February 8, 2024

By: Ambassador Johnnie Carson;  Joseph Sany, Ph.D.

The sudden actions by Senegal’s president to postpone this month’s presidential election by 10 months threaten to seriously undermine political stability and peace in a nation that has been a resilient democracy in West Africa, where multiple military coups d’état have occurred in recent years. This move poses risks of authoritarianism, violence and economic setbacks for Senegal’s 17 million people, and deeper regional insecurity. Friends of Senegal and democracy, in the United States, Africa and beyond, must unite behind the clear desire of Senegal’s people to maintain peaceful, freely elected democracy under its constitution.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Liberia Shows a Path Toward Democracy in West Africa

Liberia Shows a Path Toward Democracy in West Africa

Thursday, February 1, 2024

By: Matthew Reitman;  Katie Todd

Liberia’s presidential inauguration last week, a peaceful transfer of power between opposed political parties, strengthens its postwar democracy — an achievement that we should highlight as an instructive counterpoint to West Africa’s military coups and other erosions of democracy. While 5 million Liberians confront crises including poverty, corruption and poor infrastructure, their progress in stabilizing from decades of war offers lessons for us all. Liberians’ vital strengths in this peaceful transfer include strong political will, reflected in record voter turnout, and a potent civic history of nonviolent movements for change, buttressed by U.S. support in countering corruption.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: Alex Vines;  Henry Tugendhat;  Armida van Rij

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses. We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Senior Study Group for the Sahel: Final Report and Recommendations

Senior Study Group for the Sahel: Final Report and Recommendations

Thursday, January 18, 2024

By: Bipartisan Senior Study Group for the Sahel

The United States has not traditionally viewed the Sahel as a region of vital interest, whether in terms of security or from an economic or business perspective. This has led to a pattern of reactive involvement shaped by the circumstances of specific events rather than proactive commitments. This pattern reveals the lack of a comprehensive strategy for the volatile Western Sahel region, which includes Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. In April 2022, President Joe Biden announced that the US government would advance the “U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability” in coastal West Africa by prioritizing a partnership with Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, and Togo.

Type: Report

Civilian-Military RelationsDemocracy & GovernancePeace ProcessesViolent Extremism

Can the DRC Hold Free and Fair Elections Amid Mass Displacement?

Can the DRC Hold Free and Fair Elections Amid Mass Displacement?

Tuesday, December 19, 2023

By: Wapoenje T. Dacruz Evora;  Elizabeth Murray

On December 20, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is holding its first elections since the peaceful — but contested — transfer of power in 2019 from former President Joseph Kabila to current President Felix Tshisekedi. The elections come amid a climate of instability throughout the country, underpinned by conflict in the eastern regions, economic and social crises, and mistrust between the government and opposition. USIP’s Wapoenje Dacruz Evora and Elizabeth Murray examine the major candidates and the issues most important to voters, the risk for violence during the electoral process, and whether free and fair elections are possible given the mass displacement of civilians in the eastern DRC.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Friday, December 15, 2023

By: Michael Woldemariam

The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy