China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine.

China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine.

Friday, March 4, 2022

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.;  Lucy Stevenson-Yang

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the most consequential military conflict Europe has witnessed since the Second World War — has riveted the attention of the world. Observers have grappled with the meaning of the act of aggression and scrambled to ponder the wider implications of the war. Almost inevitably people look to draw analogies—both historical and contemporary ones. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Tragically, Ukraine’s Agonies Have Only Begun

Tragically, Ukraine’s Agonies Have Only Begun

Friday, March 4, 2022

By: Ambassador William B. Taylor

One week into Russia’s escalated war on Ukraine, it is millions of Ukrainians who have spoken most clearly, as civilians have joined their soldiers to resist for eight heroic days the Russian armored columns that many had expected to quickly capture Kyiv and other cities. The message is clear for Russians and others unable to see it before: Vladimir Putin is engaged in an unprovoked and unjustified war built on lies—about Ukraine, Russia and history—that he has spun purely to dominate Ukraine and advance his ambitions as a modern-day Russian emperor. Tragically, Ukrainians and the world must now prepare for the violence and risks to dramatically increase. Early costs of Russia’s assault: 15,000 Kyiv residents are sheltering in subway stations, above.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

With Friends Like These: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Hurts Central Asia

With Friends Like These: How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Hurts Central Asia

Monday, February 28, 2022

By: Gavin Helf, Ph.D.

While accepting Russia’s big footprint in their security and economic lives, Central Asian countries have tried to conduct “multi-vector” foreign policies. These countries know that having good (or at least balanced) relations with Russia, China and the United States is important in the long term — and that Central Asian leaders who’ve tried to play the big powers against each other often wind up the loser. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Ukraine: Putin Chooses His ‘Forever War’

Ukraine: Putin Chooses His ‘Forever War’

Thursday, February 24, 2022

By: Ambassador William B. Taylor

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s massive, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has received the immediate response promised by the United States and allied democracies: economic sanctions and solid support for Ukraine’s self-defense. While deterrence failed to divert Putin from war, its escalation remains a vital tool for the community of democracies to support Ukraine. The choice continues to be Putin’s—to stand down or to dive into an abyss of Europe’s most destructive war in eight decades. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

How Putin Turned Religion’s ‘Sharp Power’ Against Ukraine

How Putin Turned Religion’s ‘Sharp Power’ Against Ukraine

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

By: Peter Mandaville, Ph.D.

Long before Russia positioned military forces along Ukraine’s border or menaced its neighbor with cyber-attacks and economic pressure, Moscow deployed another, under-appreciated weapon increasingly used by rising global powers: the transformation of religious soft power into what is known among some scholars of authoritarianism as “sharp power.” 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

ReligionConflict Analysis & Prevention

Russia’s Assault on Ukraine and the International Order; Assessing and Bolstering the Western Response

Russia’s Assault on Ukraine and the International Order; Assessing and Bolstering the Western Response

Tuesday, February 1, 2022

By: Ambassador William B. Taylor

William B. Taylor, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and vice president, Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace, testified on February 2, 2022, before the U.S. Helsinki Commission's hearing on "Russia's Assault on Ukraine and the International Order." His expert testimony as prepared is presented here.

Type: Congressional Testimony

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

After U.S.-Russia Talks, Risk of War in Ukraine Still High

After U.S.-Russia Talks, Risk of War in Ukraine Still High

Friday, January 21, 2022

By: Ambassador William B. Taylor;  Donald N. Jensen, Ph.D.

The risk of a new Russian invasion of Ukraine remains high after today’s meeting in Geneva between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The United States delivered its warning, with European allies, of what Blinken called a “swift, severe and a united response” if the Russian troops massed at Ukraine’s border should attack. But the outcome offered at least a hope of avoiding war as Blinken agreed to offer a set of “written comments” to Russia next week on its demand for “security guarantees” that include barring Ukraine from ever joining NATO — a demand that Ukraine, NATO and the United States reject.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy