Two Years Under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a Terrorist Safe Haven Once Again?

Two Years Under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a Terrorist Safe Haven Once Again?

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

Two years into Taliban rule, the question of whether Afghanistan would once again become a safe haven for international terrorism remains alive. Longstanding fears were affirmed a little over a year ago, when the U.S. government located al-Qaeda leader Aimen al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan, before killing him in a drone strike. The fact that the Taliban would bring Zawahiri back to Kabul, despite repeated assurances to U.S. negotiators both before and after the Doha agreement that they had distanced themselves from al-Qaeda, significantly elevated concerns.

Type: Analysis

Violent Extremism

Two Years into Taliban Rule, New Shocks Weaken Afghan Economy

Two Years into Taliban Rule, New Shocks Weaken Afghan Economy

Thursday, August 10, 2023

By: William Byrd, Ph.D.

The Taliban have done a better job than expected in managing the Afghan economy despite some missteps. But nevertheless, the Afghan economy seems caught in a low-level equilibrium that leaves most Afghans poor, hungry and in need of humanitarian assistance. Moreover, new headwinds threaten to precipitate further economic decline, risking a repeat of the economic free-fall seen in the initial months following the August 2021 Taliban takeover. Much will depend on whether aid declines sharply or gradually, how seriously the opium ban is enforced for a second year during this fall’s planting season, and whether Taliban gender restrictions are tightened, maintained or weakened.

Type: Analysis

Economics

Amid Taliban Repression, Afghan Media Are a Beacon of Hope

Amid Taliban Repression, Afghan Media Are a Beacon of Hope

Thursday, August 10, 2023

By: Barry Salaam

Since regaining power two years ago, the Taliban have largely discarded Afghanistan’s democratic institutions but have taken a somewhat accommodating, albeit contradictory, approach toward independent media. Instead of a banning independent media altogether, they have implemented regulatory restrictions and punitive measures to limit free speech and control the media environment. This policy approach seems to be part of an evolving communication strategy that helped enable the group’s rise to power. Despite all the bad news coming out of Afghanistan, resilient, creative journalists and media outlets provide reason for some guarded optimism. The international community should do what it can to support the media sector, which is essential for advocating for citizen rights and providing an information lifeline to Afghans.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

What the Taliban’s Defensive Public Messaging Reveals

What the Taliban’s Defensive Public Messaging Reveals

Thursday, July 13, 2023

By: Andrew Watkins

In the nearly two years since the Taliban’s takeover, much of the Afghan population continues to struggle to meet basic daily needs amid a severe humanitarian crisis. The Taliban have imposed a raft of draconian restrictions on Afghan women and girls, effectively erasing them from public life. Yet, in a recent public address, the Taliban’s supreme leader, the emir Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada, claimed his government has provided Afghan women with a “comfortable and prosperous life.”

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

The Taliban’s Successful Opium Ban is Bad for Afghans and the World

The Taliban’s Successful Opium Ban is Bad for Afghans and the World

Thursday, June 8, 2023

By: William Byrd, Ph.D.

The Taliban have done it again: implementing a nearly complete ban against cultivation of opium poppy — Afghanistan’s most important agricultural product — repeating their similarly successful 2000-2001 prohibition on the crop. But the temptation to view the current ban in an overly positive light — as an important global counter-narcotics victory — must be avoided. This is particularly true given the state of Afghanistan’s economy and the country’s humanitarian situation. Indeed, the ban imposes huge economic and humanitarian costs on Afghans and it is likely to further stimulate an outflow of refugees. It may even result in internal challenges for the Taliban itself. And, in the long run, it will not have lasting counter-narcotics benefits within Afghanistan or globally.

Type: Analysis

Economics

The Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia

The Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

By: Abdul Sayed;  Tore Refslund Hamming

When the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, counterterrorism experts were alarmed at the possible resurgence of Islamist terrorist groups within the country. This Special Report lays out why those concerns, particularly about the regional Islamic State affiliate known as Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), were well-founded. The report discusses the likely trajectory of ISKP’s activities in South Asia and recommends measures to minimize potential threats to the West and build regional resilience to extremism.

Type: Special Report

Violent Extremism

Afghanistan’s Crisis Requires a Coherent, Coordinated International Response

Afghanistan’s Crisis Requires a Coherent, Coordinated International Response

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

By: William Byrd, Ph.D.

Over the past year, especially in recent months, the Taliban have made several missteps. The consequences are not a threat to their power in the short run but will damage their ability to govern as well as, potentially, their longer-term cohesion. Unfortunately, these missteps will harm the Afghan people much more, both directly and through their adverse impact on humanitarian aid.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

U.N. Conference Highlights Global Unity but Limited Leverage Over the Taliban

U.N. Conference Highlights Global Unity but Limited Leverage Over the Taliban

Thursday, May 4, 2023

By: Belquis Ahmadi;  Kate Bateman;  Andrew Watkins;  Scott Worden

Over a year and a half since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, not a single country has recognized its government. Yet, it has resulted in no change in Taliban behavior. The worst predictions of what Taliban rule could be like have come true, as the regime has implemented unprecedented restrictions on women amid a brutal humanitarian crisis. The situation is so bad that U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres convened a special conference in Doha, Qatar this week — with no Taliban representation — to discuss Afghanistan’s international isolation. While there were no tangible outcomes — evidence of how limited the international community’s leverage really is — it did demonstrate remarkable consensus on the imperative to help the Afghan people.

Type: Analysis

GenderGlobal PolicyHuman Rights

Taking a Terrible Toll: The Taliban’s Education Ban

Taking a Terrible Toll: The Taliban’s Education Ban

Thursday, April 13, 2023

By: Belquis Ahmadi;  Hodei Sultan

Last month, a year after the Taliban banned Afghan girls from receiving secondary education, another school year began in Afghanistan — the only country in the world where girls are prohibited from going to school beyond the primary level. Since the Taliban’s August 2021 takeover, the group has sought to marginalize women and girls and erase them from virtually every aspect of public life. After a March 2022 ban on high school education, the Taliban also barred women from attending university at the end of last year. In a series of interviews with USIP, Afghan mothers, female students, schoolteachers, and university lecturers spoke of the terrible toll the Taliban’s actions have taken on their mental health.

Type: Analysis

GenderHuman Rights

What’s Next for the Taliban’s Leadership Amid Rising Dissent?

What’s Next for the Taliban’s Leadership Amid Rising Dissent?

Tuesday, April 11, 2023

By: Andrew Watkins

Since their takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban have moved to restrict social freedoms, with a persistent focus on the rights of women and girls. Two edicts issued in December 2022, indefinitely banning Afghan women from attending universities and prohibiting working in NGO offices, constitute the most extreme restrictions yet — orders that were expanded this week to apply to women working for the U.N. as well.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance