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North Korea's Decline and China's Strategic Dilemmas

North Korea's Decline and China's Strategic Dilemmas

Thursday, October 30, 1997

For the first time, Chinese analysts are conceding that the sudden end of North Korea's political system is conceivable, even if they doubt that it is imminent. Chinese analysts cite long-standing historical, psychological, and structural factors as obstacles to a near-term collapse.  Chinese analysts recognize that if North Korea is to survive, its economic system must undergo fundamental reforms.

Type: Special Report

Mistrust and the Korean Peninsula: Dangers of Miscalculation

Mistrust and the Korean Peninsula: Dangers of Miscalculation

Friday, October 30, 1998

An unwillingness to challenge North Korea now with a more concerted diplomatic and deterrence policy, lest it precipitate a repeat of the 1994 crisis, risks being confronted later by a qualitatively different North Korean military threat. There is a significant danger of miscalculation: while previous North Korean induced crises have strengthened Pyongyang's negotiating leverage in general and perhaps the Korean People's Army's strong hold on power in particular, there is a serious risk that ...

Type: Special Report

USIP Prevention Newsletter - January 2011

USIP Prevention Newsletter - January 2011

Friday, January 7, 2011

The bimonthly Prevention Newsletter provides highlights of the Institute's conceptual and region specific work aimed at helping to prevent conflicts in Africa, the Middle East, South and Northeast Asia, and the special project on genocide prevention. It also provides Over the Horizon thinking on trends in different regions, as well as information about events, working groups and publications.

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

USIP Prevention Newsletter - March 2011

USIP Prevention Newsletter - March 2011

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

The bimonthly Prevention Newsletter provides highlights of the Institute's conceptual and region specific work aimed at helping to prevent conflicts in Africa, the Middle East, South and Northeast Asia, and the special project on genocide prevention. It also provides Over the Horizon thinking on trends in different regions, as well as information about events, working groups and publications.

Conflict Analysis & PreventionHuman Rights

USIP Prevention Newsletter - September 2011

USIP Prevention Newsletter - September 2011

Thursday, September 1, 2011

The September 2011 Prevention Newsletter features a spotlight on the Korean Peninsula: After more than two years of "strategic patience" exercised by Washington in not rushing into negotiations with North Korea, why did it convene a bilateral meeting in New York in late July?

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

A Comprehensive Resolution of the Korean War

A Comprehensive Resolution of the Korean War

Tuesday, May 13, 2003

Summary Although the Korean War Armistice Agreement stopped the fighting in 1953, it has yet to be replaced by a permanent settlement. A U.S. initiative to convene, under the auspices of the United Nations Security Council, a four-party conference to craft a political settlement of the Korean conflict, in return for the verified dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction, would: Meet the U.S. requirement for a multilateral solution to the nuc...

Type: Special Report

The Politics of Famine in North Korea

The Politics of Famine in North Korea

Monday, August 2, 1999

Summary Because of the withdrawal of USSR and Chinese food subsidies in the early 1990s and the cumulative effect of collective farming, food availability in North Korea declined steadily and then plummeted between 1995 and 1997 when flooding followed by drought struck the country. From 1994 to 1998, 2-3 million people died of starvation and hunger-related illnesses, and the famine has generated a range of social and political effects.

Type: Special Report

Overcoming Humanitarian Dilemmas in the DPRK (North Korea)

Overcoming Humanitarian Dilemmas in the DPRK (North Korea)

Saturday, July 13, 2002

Summary In 1995 the DPRK (North Korean) government appealed to the international community for assistance to cope with gross food shortages, which threatened starvation for its people. UN humanitarian agencies that had had some relationship with the DPRK since the 1980s—the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Food Program (WFP)— responded to these appeals and became fully operational and resident in the country after 1995.

Type: Special Report