Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
North Korea Has Lost the ‘Unification Competition’
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in January declared peaceful unification with South Korea is no longer possible. In a speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s parliament, Kim said North Korea’s constitution should be amended to show that South Korea is a “primary foe and invariable principal enemy.”
If You Want Peace, Prepare for War, and Diplomacy
At this Kim Dae-jung Peace Forum, it’s useful to recall seemingly paradoxical advice offered by a fourth-century Roman general: Si vis pacem, para bellum. “If you want peace, prepare for war.”
Revisiting the Two-State System for Peaceful Coexistence on the Korean Peninsula
The mounting tensions and risk of nuclear war that plague the Korean Peninsula today are typically attributed to a combination of North Korea’s aggressive nuclear posture and doctrine and the U.S.-South Korea alliance’s proactive deterrence countermeasures. However, while these factors are proximate and important, they themselves stem from a deeper, fundamental cause. The longstanding division of the Korean Peninsula has trapped the two Koreas in an endless unification competition to outcompete and take over one another, which drives the arms race and confrontational military postures against each other. Advancing a “two-state system” that mitigates the unification competition may help promote peaceful coexistence between South and North Korea and reduce the risks of conventional and nuclear war on the peninsula.
Seeking Peaceful Coexistence with North Korea: What Would Kennan Do?
The challenge that North Korea poses to the United States — as a hostile, intransigent and seemingly implacable power with nuclear weapons — is in many respects a microcosm of the challenge posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. How would George F. Kennan, who devised the strategy of containment for dealing with the Soviet Union, have advised Washington in confronting Pyongyang?
Exploring Peaceful Coexistence with North Korea
The United States and North Korea coexist today in an antagonistic, high-risk stalemate. The Kim Jong Un government, feeling besieged by a “hostile” U.S. policy and fearing the potential for regime change, has centered its national defense strategy on strengthening deterrence through nuclear weapons. Facing this intractable nuclear threat, the Biden administration has reinforced a coercive, pressure-based approach that relies on diplomatic isolation, military deterrence and economic sanctions to contain, if not change, North Korea’s defiant behavior.
A More Resilient North Korea in the Post-Pandemic Era
North Korea in the post-pandemic era is becoming increasingly resilient and authoritarian, and less reliant on conventional interactions with the international community. As a result, the U.S. government may need to reconsider its reliance on sanctions as a means to influence the regime in Pyongyang.
North Korea’s Satellite Launch Adds a Spark to Already Simmering Tensions
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are simmering again as a result of North Korea’s launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, which prompted South Korea to lift restrictions on reconnaissance activities imposed by the 2018 inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA). The satellite, which was launched on November 21, utilized ballistic missile technology in violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions. The Biden administration, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the G7 foreign ministers swiftly condemned the launch.
Three Key Lessons from Past North Korean Denuclearization Diplomacy
Despite widespread pessimism about the prospects for North Korea’s denuclearization and the utility of denuclearization diplomacy, Washington and Seoul continue to explore denuclearization dialogue with North Korea. In April, President Biden and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea jointly confirmed in the Washington Declaration that, despite their primary focus on enhancing deterrence measures, they “remain steadfast in their pursuit of dialogue and diplomacy with [North Korea], without preconditions, as a means to advance the shared goal of achieving the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”
Is There any Chance North Korea Will Ever Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons?
Of course, no analyst can say with 100 percent certainty that North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons.
70 Years After the Armistice, the Korean Peninsula Still Struggles for Peace
On July 27, 1953, military commanders from the United States, North Korea and China signed an armistice agreement that ended the hostilities of the Korean War. The parties agreed to a “complete cessation of hostilities and of all acts of armed force until a final peaceful settlement is achieved.” They also recommended holding a “political conference” within three months for “the peaceful settlement of the Korean question.” After 70 years of truce, however, peace on the Korean Peninsula is still elusive.