Israeli soldiers’ discovery of six of their country’s hostages shot dead in a tunnel underneath Rafah, Gaza has placed the question of a cease-fire’s prospects in stark relief. Coming as the U.S. had already stepped up efforts to push for an Israel-Hamas agreement, the grim fate of the hostages can simultaneously be viewed as providing a catalyst for the urgent conclusion of a deal, or as a harbinger of diplomatic derailment for a process the U.S., Egypt and Qatar had been in the throes of pushing to resolution.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Peace Processes

USIP convened an expert panel of scholars and researchers over a four-month period in 2023–24 to explore lessons learned from the management of conflicts in prior periods of global turbulence. This is the first paper in a three-part series from the convenings and focuses on the examination of contemporary conflict trends, drivers, and dynamics and how these differ from prior conflicts.

Type: Discussion Paper

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

For weeks, concerns over the risk of miscalculation or even intentional escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have dominated attention. Ramped up cross-border attacks between the two sides on Sunday, August 25 have left each side simultaneously claiming success “for now,” suggesting a much-feared larger conflagration may have been averted in the near term. However, implications for longer-term risk and mutual deterrence, Iran’s calculations for escalation, and linkage to the still-elusive Gaza cease-fire remain uncertain.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

One of Africa’s longest wars shifted toward a conclusion in July when France recognized Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the Western Sahara. That action, alongside Morocco’s military advantage, effectively will leave the indigenous Sahrawi independence movement with no choice but to eventually settle for some form of autonomy within Morocco. While this reality will be unsatisfactory for the estimated 173,000 Sahrawis living in refugee camps, their best option, and that of their backer, Algeria, is now to seize the opportunity to negotiate for best-possible peace terms with Morocco. Ending a war that keeps so many stateless and living in squalor while also removing a major irritant to the Moroccan-Algerian relationship will improve regional stability.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Global Policy