USIP’s Afghanistan country director, Shahmahmood Miakhel, discusses the key events and issues of 2011, and what we should be looking out for in 2012, such as possible peace talks with the Taliban.

USIP’s Afghanistan country director, Shahmahmood Miakhel, discusses the key events and issues of 2011, and what we should be looking out for in 2012, such as possible peace talks with the Taliban. 

 

Looking back at Afghanistan in 2011, what are the key issues that stand out regarding U.S. policy?

  • The main issue that stands out is the lack of partnerships in the region. 2011 was a year filled with challenges for U.S. policymakers as they were faced with difficult choices not only with the government of Afghanistan but also with the regional neighbors. If the relationship between the regional neighbors and the relationship between Pakistan and the U.S. remain the same, these challenges will continue into 2012.
  • The Strategic Partnership Agreement between Afghanistan and the U.S. has not yet been signed. On December 24, Afghan President Hamid Karzai announced that Afghanistan will not sign a strategic partnership deal with the United States until NATO night raids and house searches stop. Karzai said that “arbitrary operations and house searches by NATO have become a serious problem between Afghanistan and NATO forces and that this has been one of the main obstacles on signing the strategic partnership deal with the United States.”
  • Negotiations with the Taliban have also stalled following the assassination of former president and chairman of the High Peace Council, Burhanuddin Rabbani, in September 2011. Rabbani’s assassination highlighted that the talks with the Taliban were not going anywhere and, as Karzai noted, Rabbani's death showed that "we were actually talking to nobody." In 2012, we will see a lot of discussion around the idea of the establishment of a Taliban liaison office in Qatar, as the Taliban reportedly wants to establish an office from which it can negotiate a peace deal in Qatar.
  • The December Bonn Conference was initially seen as an opportunity to chart a course for post-NATO withdrawal, however a boycott by Pakistan is deemed to have dealt a serious blow to hopes for such a roadmap in Afghanistan. The boycott by Pakistan was prompted by the killing of 24 soldiers in NATO air strikes on two Pakistani posts in Mohmand Agency in November. Highlighting the tensions in the region, President Karzai accused Pakistan’s boycott of the Bonn Conference as sabotaging all negotiations with the Taliban. Pakistan is vital to any prospect of stability in the war-ravaged Afghanistan. Despite these hostile relations, USIP Pakistan Program’s research highlights that the U.S. and Pakistani position on Afghanistan converge to a much greater degree than is usually believed. In a research project conducted in partnership with the Jinnah Institute in Islamabad, we drew on the expertise of 53 Pakistani foreign policy elite and politicians to examine Pakistan’s outlook towards Afghanistan. We found that Pakistan’s goals are often overlapping, and the divergent ones are entirely reconcilable, with U.S. objectives.
  • Despite these setbacks, recent changes in U.S. civilian and military leadership in Afghanistan have created a momentum to reset the clock in Afghanistan but the above challenges still must be addressed.

 

What are some of USIP's major contributions in 2011 in Afghanistan?

  • USIP in 2011 continued to improve the relationship between community dispute resolution bodies and government officials so that they each understand the other’s strengths and roles and can cooperate to use scarce resources to handle important disputes. Since 2010, the Institute’s Dispute Resolution Councils in Nangarhar, Kunduz and Kunar provinces have resolved more than 100 provincial-level disputes that had the potential to escalate into violence if not addressed.
  • USIP has also worked directly with Afghan government officials and traditional dispute resolution practitioners to develop an Afghan policy that would enable courts to endorse traditional settlements that are within Afghan law, while overturning shura and jirga decisions that violate women’s rights and other laws of Afghanistan.
  • The Afghanistan and Pakistan Program hosted numerous public and private events including examining issues of transition in Afghanistan, and future prospects for Pakistan. Key speakers included J. Alexander Thier, director of USAID’s Office of Afghanistan and Pakistan Affairs, and Pakistani diplomat, Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi. A number of these events were undertaken with partners, including The Asia Foundation and the World Bank.
  • The Afghanistan and Pakistan program published numerous USIP publications, stemming in part from the Institute's on-the-ground research. Recently published outputs include two USIP Peaceworks, “Designing a Comprehensive Peace Process for Afghanistan” and “Beyond Power Sharing: Institutional Options for an Afghan Peace Process.” These publications are part of the ongoing USIP partnership with the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and Chr. Michelsen Institute to examine many of the key issues related to a politically negotiated settlement in Afghanistan.
  • In late September/early October, USIP arranged an eight-day trip for Senior adviser for International Affairs Stephen Hadley (former national security adviser to President George W. Bush) to visit Afghanistan and Pakistan where he met with President Karzai and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, and many other senior officials and civil society actors, to inform them of USIP’s work. Policy discussions are turning more and more to the anticipated drawdown of U.S. troops in 2014. For more information on his trip, read the news feature, “Former National Security Adviser Hadley visits the Hill, Briefs USIP missions in Afghanistan, Pakistan.” 

 

What still needs to be accomplished for that transition to go smoothly?

The security transition in Afghanistan is on track as planned. As part of the first phase of the security handover, Afghan security forces were to take the lead in securing several key areas of Afghanistan beginning in July 2011. In the first phase, Afghan national police and army were responsible for security in Bamiyan, Panjsher and Kabul provinces, with the exception of the unsettled Kabul district of Sarobi, as well as the Afghan cities of Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, Lashkar Gah and Mehterlam.

The second phase of the security transition started in November 2011 and involves extended Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) security coverage to half the population, and moves beyond the areas chosen in the first phase of the transition. Questions remain on the economic and political transition. Goals must be realistic leading into 2014 and beyond. In addition, Afghans need to take ownership and responsibility while decreasing their need and expectation on foreign assistance.

 

What will USIP be focused on for 2012?

In 2012, USIP’s Afghanistan Program will work on promoting conflict resolution, peacebuilding and enhanced governance for peace and stability in Afghanistan.

Some of the specific projects will include:

In 2012, the USIP Pakistan Program will work on promoting religious tolerance, peaceful inter-faith dialogue and countering extremism in Pakistan through interrelated projects:

  • Priority grant competition on civil society capacity building for countering extremism and promoting peace and religious tolerance
  • Supporting policy research and analysis on religious intolerance and extremism
  • Countering extremist voices through the media

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