Three Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Generals Face an Existential Crisis

Three Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Generals Face an Existential Crisis

Thursday, February 1, 2024

By: Priscilla A. Clapp;  Billy Ford;  Nang Raw;  Jason Tower;  Andrew Wells-Dang, Ph.D.

Three years after Myanmar’s military overthrew the country’s democratically elected government, the ruling generals — having suffered humiliating battlefield defeats — face an existential crisis. Victories by the diverse ranks of Myanmar’s resistance have invigorated their morale and they are tightening battlefield coordination despite slow progress toward political consensus. The military, meanwhile, is short of manpower and controls a shrinking percentage of the nation.

Type: AnalysisQuestion and Answer

Global Policy

Russia’s War on Moldova Will Be Political in 2024. And Then?

Russia’s War on Moldova Will Be Political in 2024. And Then?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: James Rupert

As Ukraine defends its independence and democracy against Russia’s invasion, tiny Moldova confronts a parallel Russian “hybrid war” — and the past 12 weeks have sharpened this battle for Moldova in 2024. Moldova advanced its accession to the European Union and joined EU sanctions against Russians driving the war on Ukraine. Moldova’s government scheduled a referendum to ratify the country’s future as a European democracy after more than 150 years as a militarized frontier of Russian empires. Russia’s malign uses of information, election interference and capacity to trigger a real war — a second front against Europe — heighten the urgency to strengthen Moldova’s resilience and energize its pro-democracy constituency in 2024.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

The United States Weighs Its Options in the Face of Iran’s Provocations

The United States Weighs Its Options in the Face of Iran’s Provocations

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: Sarhang Hamasaeed;  Mona Yacoubian

Three U.S. troops were killed and at least 34 injured in a drone strike on a U.S. base in northeast Jordan on January 28. The attack comes against a backdrop of rising regional tensions since the outbreak of conflict in Gaza following the October 7 Hamas terrorist attack on Israel.

Type: AnalysisQuestion and Answer

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal PolicyViolent Extremism

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: Alex Vines;  Henry Tugendhat;  Armida van Rij

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses. We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Wanted: A Reset of Haiti Policy

Wanted: A Reset of Haiti Policy

Thursday, January 25, 2024

By: Georges Fauriol

Haiti’s governance vacuum triggered by President Jovenel Moïse’s assassination in July 2021 shows few encouraging signs. Violence, notably around Port-au-Prince, has not only grown in lethality, but politically has become the central issue shaping domestic and international discussions. The imminent expiration of acting Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s term in office on February 7 means Haiti’s political crisis is on course to become more intransigent.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

Taiwan’s Democracy Prevailed Despite China’s Election Interference

Taiwan’s Democracy Prevailed Despite China’s Election Interference

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

By: Naiyu Kuo;  Jennifer Staats, Ph.D.

The election of Lai Ching-te, or William Lai, as Taiwan’s next president despite firm opposition from China is a positive sign that democracy is alive and well on the island nation. Nevertheless, the fact that Lai, whom China has deemed a “troublemaker” and “separatist,” won by a narrow margin, and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan, will be seen in Beijing as an acceptable outcome, as it restricts Lai’s ability to advance his agenda and reveals the limits of the DPP’s appeal.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

Revisiting the Two-State System for Peaceful Coexistence on the Korean Peninsula

Revisiting the Two-State System for Peaceful Coexistence on the Korean Peninsula

Monday, January 22, 2024

By: Bong-geun Jun

The mounting tensions and risk of nuclear war that plague the Korean Peninsula today are typically attributed to a combination of North Korea’s aggressive nuclear posture and doctrine and the U.S.-South Korea alliance’s proactive deterrence countermeasures. However, while these factors are proximate and important, they themselves stem from a deeper, fundamental cause. The longstanding division of the Korean Peninsula has trapped the two Koreas in an endless unification competition to outcompete and take over one another, which drives the arms race and confrontational military postures against each other. Advancing a “two-state system” that mitigates the unification competition may help promote peaceful coexistence between South and North Korea and reduce the risks of conventional and nuclear war on the peninsula.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Making Sense of Iran-Pakistan Cross-Border Strikes

Making Sense of Iran-Pakistan Cross-Border Strikes

Friday, January 19, 2024

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

In a surprising turn on January 16, Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, claiming it had hit two strongholds of anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice). Iran announced the attack in Pakistan concurrent to its strikes in Iraq and Syria. Less than two days later, Pakistan hit back with not only missiles but also fighter jets in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province — claiming to target hideouts of anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist insurgents operating from Iranian soil.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal PolicyViolent Extremism