The Pivotal Elections of 2024: Key Races That Will Shape the Global Landscape

The Pivotal Elections of 2024: Key Races That Will Shape the Global Landscape

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

By: Ashish Kumar Sen

Around 2 billion people in more than 50 countries, including India, Chad, Mexico and South Africa, will go to the polls this year in what has been described as the Super Bowl of elections. From major democracies to emerging nations, the outcomes of these votes will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future trajectory of countries around the world. While some elections could produce conflict, most will take place under the threat of disruption — all of this will have serious implications for U.S. foreign policy and security.

Type: AnalysisQuestion and Answer

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

A Preview of 2024 Elections Throughout Latin America

A Preview of 2024 Elections Throughout Latin America

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

By: Lucila Del Aguila Llausas;  Nicolás Devia-Valbuena;  Mark Feierstein;  Keith Mines;  Mary Speck, Ph.D.

Anti-incumbent sentiment has gripped much of Latin America in recent years, swinging electoral results leftward in Mexico, Colombia, Honduras and Brazil, upending the corrupt coalitions that have long ruled Guatemala, and handing the presidency of Argentina to a self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist.” But 2024 may prove to be a good year for establishment politicians. In the five countries with elections on the calendar — El Salvador, Panama, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Mexico — insider candidates are polling ahead, at least so far.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Disinformation Casts a Shadow Over Global Elections

Disinformation Casts a Shadow Over Global Elections

Wednesday, January 3, 2024

By: Heather Ashby, Ph.D.

This year will be one of the most consequential in recent memory, as more than 50 elections will take place in countries across the world covering nearly 2 billion people. With the role of technology increasing in a multitude of sectors, communications technology (i.e., social media platforms and messaging apps) and artificial intelligence (AI) are poised to have varying levels of impact on the elections in 2024. Without strong collaboration and planning between peacebuilders, civil society, technology companies and governments, the fallout from unmanaged technology use around the elections will be far reaching, from an increasing inability to discern fact from fiction to distrust in democratic political processes.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Nigeria’s Vote Signals Risks: How Its Partners Can Support Democracy

Nigeria’s Vote Signals Risks: How Its Partners Can Support Democracy

Thursday, March 9, 2023

By: James Rupert

Nigeria’s disputed election 12 days ago is raising protest at home and concern abroad over its implications for the strength of democracy in that country and across Africa. Yesterday’s new wrinkle was the postponement of this week’s planned election for Nigerian state governors. Nigeria’s electoral commission is working to fix problems in a vote management system that failed to transparently process and report a result on February 25. An erosion of democracy’s credibility in Africa’s most populous nation would be catastrophic.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Amid Nigeria’s Turmoil, an Election Could Alter its Democracy

Amid Nigeria’s Turmoil, an Election Could Alter its Democracy

Thursday, July 28, 2022

In mid-summer 2022, Nigeria is just seven months away from elections that could strengthen, or set back, its democracy. Good news includes a surge in voter registrations and a wave of civic engagement among young Nigerians who in recent years have often despaired of better governance through elections. Yet dangers loom: risks of electoral violence or disputed election results in a country where political and criminal violence has reached new levels. To help Africa’s most populous nation pivot toward stability — and to indirectly bolster democratization across the continent — the United States and other international partners should provide diplomatic, political and technical support for Nigeria’s electoral authority.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Why Ethiopia’s 2021 Elections Matter

Why Ethiopia’s 2021 Elections Matter

Thursday, June 17, 2021

By: Aly Verjee;  Terrence Lyons

Facing numerous technical difficulties, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) delayed parliamentary elections from June 5 to June 21, postponing the vote for the second time. Some major opposition parties are boycotting, and no voting will take place in civil war hit Tigray or in several other areas facing insecurity. Elsewhere, deficiencies in election administration have meant voting has already been postponed in many constituencies, and some of the logistical arrangements to underpin the vote are still to be implemented. Although there are risks of electoral violence, any incidents are unlikely to be especially significant in a context of high levels of ongoing political violence.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Ethiopia: Contemplating Elections and the Prospects for Peaceful Reform

Ethiopia: Contemplating Elections and the Prospects for Peaceful Reform

Thursday, April 29, 2021

By: Lidet Tadesse Shiferaw;  Terrence Lyons;  Aly Verjee

Ethiopia is approaching parliamentary elections on June 5. This will be the first vote since the process of reform launched in 2018 by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and the stakes are extremely high. Elections to the next national parliament, the House of People's Representatives, may determine future decisions about the structure of the country and consolidate the ruling party’s power. While the short-term outlook for the vote is unlikely to change, the election may offer opportunities to support political dialogue which could sustain important reforms and decrease polarization.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

Despite Post-Election Violence, Niger Achieves Democratic Breakthrough

Despite Post-Election Violence, Niger Achieves Democratic Breakthrough

Friday, March 12, 2021

By: Nourdine Harouna Abdou

Niger’s presidential election has ushered in the West African nation’s first-ever democratic transition of power. As some international observers have heralded the success of these elections, accusations of irregularities have led to massive protests and government repression, including a 10-day internet shutdown. Hundreds of people have been arrested in the capital, Niamey, while police have clashed with protesters in several other cities. USIP’s Nourdine Harouna Abdou explains what happened in the first- and second-round votes and what the elections mean for peace and security in Niger.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & ConflictJustice, Security & Rule of Law

Central African Republic’s Disputed Elections Exacerbate Rising Tensions

Central African Republic’s Disputed Elections Exacerbate Rising Tensions

Thursday, January 7, 2021

By: Elizabeth Murray;  Rachel Sullivan

After an election period marked by violence and rising tension, the Central African Republic’s (CAR) incumbent president, Faustin Archange Touadéra, has been re-elected, according to the country’s election commission. Days before the vote, a disparate medley of armed groups coalesced to demand the vote be postponed. Since the polls’ closing, there has been a serious spike in violence with fighting in many major towns. The political opposition as well as the newly formed armed coalition have rejected the results and have demanded a re-run election. USIP’s Elizabeth Murray and Rachel Sullivan explain what led to rising violence in the weeks before the polls, what it means for the floundering 2019 peace agreement, and where the international community stands.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & Conflict