China and the Reshaping of Global Conflict Prevention Norms

China and the Reshaping of Global Conflict Prevention Norms

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

By: Carla Freeman, Ph.D.;  Bates Gill;  Alison McFarland

As China has become a more powerful and influential actor—economically, politically, and militarily—it has demonstrated growing interest in playing a larger role in international conflict prevention and influencing established norms. This report examines Beijing’s approaches and efforts in this area, focusing on three case studies: funding projects through the UN, “Sinocentric” regional organizations, and ties with Solomon Islands. The report finds that China’s efforts around conflict prevention have a coherence that requires a similarly coherent response from the United States.

Type: Peaceworks

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Five Flashpoints in the Philippines-China Relationship

Five Flashpoints in the Philippines-China Relationship

Monday, August 14, 2023

By: Justice Antonio T. Carpio

The flashpoints should be viewed against the backdrop of China’s new coast guard law, which took effect on February 1, 2021. Under this new coast guard law, China’s Coast Guard is authorized “to use all necessary measures including the use of weapons” to enforce China’s territorial and maritime claims, in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Is Myanmar’s Junta Turning a Corner?

Is Myanmar’s Junta Turning a Corner?

Thursday, August 10, 2023

By: Priscilla A. Clapp;  Ye Myo Hein

Are conciliatory winds stirring among the leaders of Myanmar’s coup regime, or is the junta engaging in deception and distraction as it struggles on the battlefield against a broad range of resistance forces? The answer is almost certainly the latter. It would not be the first time the ruling generals have sought to stimulate international interest in promoting dialogue solely to enhance their legitimacy abroad.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S.

China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S.

Thursday, August 10, 2023

By: Carla Freeman, Ph.D.;  Brian Harding;  Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.

In yet another act of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel employed a water cannon last weekend to redirect an unarmed Philippines Navy supply boat. The incident took place in disputed waters near the Second Thomas Shoal. China claims the shoal and nearly all of the South China Sea as its own, but an international court has said both the shoal and surrounding waters belong to the Philippines.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

How to Break the Impasse in U.S.-China Crisis Communication

How to Break the Impasse in U.S.-China Crisis Communication

Wednesday, July 26, 2023

By: Michael D. Swaine

Despite the clear (and arguably growing) possibility of a future Sino-American crisis or even conflict over Taiwan or some other contentious issue and the fact that senior American and Chinese leaders have at times endorsed the need for more effective crisis avoidance interactions, little of real substance has actually been done to address the danger. Indeed, military-to-military talks have been on pause since Beijing suspended them in August 2022 after then-speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. As U.S.-China competition continues to intensify, it is critical that Washington and Beijing break this impasse by devising fresh approaches to avoid conflict altogether.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Displaced to Cities: Conflict, Climate Change, and Rural-to-Urban Migration

Displaced to Cities: Conflict, Climate Change, and Rural-to-Urban Migration

Thursday, June 15, 2023

By: Gabriela Nagle Alverio;  Jeannie Sowers;  Erika Weinthal

Countries as geographically diverse as Honduras, Jordan, and Pakistan are experiencing a common challenge—rapid growth in urban populations as conflict and climate-induced disasters push people from rural areas into cities. This report examines the effects of this increased urban migration on both the migrants and the urban environment, as well as the challenges policymakers face. It offers recommendations to help meet the needs of growing urban populations and develop adaptive, resilient systems to better withstand the impacts of climate change and conflict.

Type: Peaceworks

Conflict Analysis & PreventionEnvironment

Time is Running Out for India’s Balancing Act on the Myanmar Border

Time is Running Out for India’s Balancing Act on the Myanmar Border

Thursday, June 15, 2023

By: Zo Tum Hmung;  John Indergaard

India has had a simmering crisis on its northeastern border since the Myanmar military’s February 2021 coup d’état. Over 50,000 civilians have fled across the border from Myanmar’s Chin State and Sagaing Region into India’s northeast. New Delhi has maintained a delicate balancing act, allowing refugees into the country but refraining from political pressure on the junta and its State Administrative Council (SAC). However, as the situation in Myanmar continues to worsen, India will need to rethink its position before the fallout seriously threatens its interests.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Tracking the Evolution of Conflict: Barometers for Interstate and Civil Conflict

Tracking the Evolution of Conflict: Barometers for Interstate and Civil Conflict

Monday, June 12, 2023

By: Gary Goertz;  Paul F. Diehl;  Andrew P. Owsiak;  Luis Schenoni

This paper presents news ways to track violent conflict over time, providing conflict barometers for interstate and civil conflict, respectively. After critiquing previous efforts at measurement, the authors discuss general principles concerning the utility of conflict barometers. The interstate barometer is based on establishing a baseline for the relationship between a pair of states and then using the incidence and severity of militarized confrontations to track variations around those baselines. The resulting Interstate Conflict Severity Barometer (ICSB) is scaled from 0 (no violent conflict) to 1,000 (rivalry plus severe militarized confrontations) for 2,631 different state-state relationships over the period 1900–2015.

Type: Discussion Paper

Conflict Analysis & PreventionPeace Processes

Understanding India’s Manipur Conflict and Its Geopolitical Implications

Understanding India’s Manipur Conflict and Its Geopolitical Implications

Friday, June 2, 2023

By: Binalakshmi Nepram;  Brigitta W. Schuchert

Since May 3, the northeastern Indian state of Manipur has witnessed repeated inter-ethnic clashes primarily between two local ethnic communities, the Meitei and Kuki. The violence has resulted in over 75 deaths and the burning of at least 1,700 buildings (including homes and religious sites). More than 35,000 people are currently displaced as well, with many now living in one of the 315 relief camps in the state. As the fighting continues, these numbers may also be rising.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Why We Should All Worry About the China-India Border Dispute

Why We Should All Worry About the China-India Border Dispute

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

By: Nishant Rajeev;  Alex Stephenson

The December 2022 clash between Chinese and Indian troops along the two countries’ 2,100-mile-long contested border — known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC) — highlights a worrying “one step forward, two steps back” trend. This brawl was the worst since 2020, when fighting in the Galwan Valley took the lives of 20 Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers. Although these clashes are often followed by dialogue and other steps to reduce tensions, both sides have increasingly militarized their border policies and shown no indication of backing down. And the situation on the border remains tense, as Beijing and New Delhi are hardening their positions on either side of the LAC, with the potential for escalation between the two nuclear-armed powers.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention