Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously

Friday, December 15, 2023

By: Michael Woldemariam

The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

How the Taliban Enables Violence Against Women

How the Taliban Enables Violence Against Women

Thursday, December 7, 2023

By: Belquis Ahmadi

In just 28 months, the Taliban have dismantled Afghan women’s and girls’ rights — imposing draconian restrictions regarding their education, employment and freedom of movement. Any perceived violation of these oppressive policies is often met with harassment, intimidation, and verbal and physical abuse orchestrated by the Taliban’s Ministry of Vice and Virtue. And when women are detained by authorities, they have been subjected to cruel treatment, including torture.

Type: Analysis

GenderConflict Analysis & Prevention

The Unsustainable Exploitation of Solomon Islands’ Natural Resources

The Unsustainable Exploitation of Solomon Islands’ Natural Resources

Thursday, November 30, 2023

By: Charley Piringi

The extractive industry in Solomon Islands serves as a crucial catalyst for economic growth and development, tapping into the nation's abundant natural resources like timber, minerals and fisheries for export — mainly to China. But despite its promise for economic prosperity, the extractive industry poses significant challenges, requiring careful management to ensure sustainability and minimize adverse effects on the environment and local communities.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionEnvironment

For Peace in the Sahel, Can the U.S. Work with Algeria?

For Peace in the Sahel, Can the U.S. Work with Algeria?

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

By: Thomas M. Hill

Amid the Sahel region’s crises — a continent-spanning web of communal and terrorist insurgencies and eight coups d’etat since 2020 — U.S. and European attention is focused elsewhere: on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s expanding global influence and the Israel-Palestine conflict. But an opportunity to promote stabilization in the Sahel, notably in Mali and Niger, could be U.S. collaboration with Algeria. Algeria shares borders with those violence-stricken states, and also the U.S. desire to help stabilize them and their Sahel neighbors. A first question for any joint U.S-Algerian engagement is whether the two countries’ visions for Sahel stability, particularly in Mali and Niger, are aligned or contradictory.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Civil War Pushes Sudan to the Brink of Humanitarian Disaster

Civil War Pushes Sudan to the Brink of Humanitarian Disaster

Wednesday, November 22, 2023

By: Ashish Kumar Sen

Away from the headlines dominated by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, a civil war between Sudan’s military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is pushing the country to the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. As an allegedly genocidal RSF gains the upper hand, a U.N. official has warned that Sudan is “facing a convergence of a worsening humanitarian calamity and a catastrophic human rights crisis.”

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionHuman Rights

We Shouldn’t Fear a Resistance Victory in Myanmar

We Shouldn’t Fear a Resistance Victory in Myanmar

Thursday, November 16, 2023

By: Billy Ford;  Thin Zar Htet

As the national uprising against Myanmar’s coup regime has gained strength, a singular question has hovered over the widening campaign: If this patchwork of ethnic armed groups, deposed elected leaders, activists and armed defense forces manages to topple the junta, would they be able to govern, or would the country descend into greater chaos?

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionDemocracy & Governance

Myanmar’s Junta Is Losing Control of Its Border with China

Myanmar’s Junta Is Losing Control of Its Border with China

Wednesday, November 8, 2023

By: Priscilla A. Clapp;  Jason Tower

Myanmar’s military has lost control of substantial sections of the country’s border with China in recent days, as forces fighting the coup regime coordinate their attacks in an unprecedented way. The immediate aim of the combined offensive was to shut down lucrative criminal activity in enclaves along the Chinese frontier that are run by military-sponsored border guard forces. Significantly, in doing so, the insurgents took advantage of China’s recent efforts to stifle scams run from the enclaves that target Chinese citizens. This could mark a turning point in the national struggle against military rule, one that would pose serious new challenges to the anti-coup leadership, the international community and Myanmar’s neighbors.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

In a Multipolar World, the Private Sector Can Be a Force for Peace

In a Multipolar World, the Private Sector Can Be a Force for Peace

Monday, November 6, 2023

By: Andrew Cheatham

As the world transitions to a more multipolar, competitive landscape, this is an important moment to take stock of the role of the private sector, particularly multinational enterprises, in the genesis and resolution of armed conflict. Today, the world’s biggest corporations are wealthier than many nations and the private sector is playing an increasingly important role in geopolitics. At the same time, we are seeing a rise in violence and conflict that threatens to pose major risks to business around the world.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionEconomics

Let’s Call China’s Actions in the South China Sea What They Really Are

Let’s Call China’s Actions in the South China Sea What They Really Are

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

By: Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby

In recent months, the Chinese Coast Guard and Beijing’s maritime militia have used dangerous maneuvers to block and harass the Philippine Coast Guard and Armed Forces of the Philippines from conducting resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal. An October 22 collision between two of the countries’ coast guard vessels is just the latest incident of maritime confrontation. As tensions rise, the stakes are high and could draw in the United States, which has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, and other naval powers.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Will the Israel-Hamas War Spiral into a Wider Conflict?

Will the Israel-Hamas War Spiral into a Wider Conflict?

Thursday, October 26, 2023

By: Mona Yacoubian

With the Israel-Hamas war poised to enter its fourth week, the conflict continues to escalate. The Israeli military announced on October 25 it had struck more than 7,000 targets inside Gaza, ranking the current military campaign among the most intense globally in recent memory. The conflict has resulted in an estimated 1,400 Israelis killed, according to Israeli government sources and more than 6,500 Gazans killed, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry. More than 200 hostages are held captive in Gaza.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention