Ukraine: Can We Shorten a Path to Peace in 2023?

Ukraine: Can We Shorten a Path to Peace in 2023?

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

By: Ambassador William B. Taylor

How will Ukraine’s war evolve in 2023, and can it yield a path to peace? Analysts’ scenarios for the war are full of unknowns. Yet one certainty is that Ukrainian soldiers and civilians will continue to fight Russia’s assault with every weapon at hand — or with none. Building a sustainable, rather than illusory, path to peace must take account of the Ukrainians’ determination. And laying such a path will benefit from noting that the immediate option for peace rests in the hands of Vladimir Putin, who on any given day could end this war by withdrawing his forces.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Asks: Can We Shorten This War?

Ukraine’s Zelenskyy Asks: Can We Shorten This War?

Thursday, December 22, 2022

By: James Rupert

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seized Americans’ attention yesterday, rushing from a smoking Ukrainian battlefield to ask Congress directly for the help that can let Ukrainians turn back Europe’s most brutal war since Adolf Hitler. Flying home last night, the question Zelenskyy left behind is this: Will the United States trickle out its assistance slowly, perhaps to avoid a Ukrainian collapse but leaving this war to grind for years? Or might Zelenskyy’s impassioned appeal persuade Americans to invest in his ambition to shorten the bloodshed, reversing Vladimir Putin’s invasion in coming months to force him to accept a negotiated off-ramp from the war?

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

The China-Russia ‘Alliance’: Double the Danger or Limited Partnership?

The China-Russia ‘Alliance’: Double the Danger or Limited Partnership?

Thursday, December 15, 2022

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.;  Niklas Swanström, Ph.D.

According to the recently released 2022 U.S. National Security Strategy, China and Russia “are increasingly aligned with each other but the challenges they pose are, in important ways, distinct.” These challenges are felt all around the world, not least in Europe and the United States. All too rarely explored, however, is when and how Beijing and Moscow coordinate or cooperate and what this means for the United States and its allies and partners.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Preparing for Victory in Ukraine

Preparing for Victory in Ukraine

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

By: Stephen J. Hadley;  Ambassador William B. Taylor;  John E. Herbst;  Matthew Kroenig;  Melinda Haring;  Jeffrey Cimmino

Success. That’s the potential outcome that the United States, Ukraine, allied and partner governments, and private-sector actors must now prepare to confront. Ukraine’s counteroffensives, backed by expanded and accelerated U.S. and allied support, continue to push Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory, although at a reduced rate. These hard-won successes, however, bring with them possible challenges that also must be addressed.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Mary Glantz on the G20 Summit

Mary Glantz on the G20 Summit

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

By: Mary Glantz, Ph.D.

The joint leaders’ statement at the G20 Summit, while largely symbolic, showed that “Russia [is] a lot more isolated than perhaps we’d been led to suspect,” says USIP’s Mary Glantz, adding that Russia’s anti-imperialist justification for the war in Ukraine is “not getting the traction we thought it was.”

Type: Podcast

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

A Missile Strikes Poland: How Russia’s War Could Spread

A Missile Strikes Poland: How Russia’s War Could Spread

Thursday, November 17, 2022

By: Mary Glantz, Ph.D.

When a missile slammed into a Polish village Tuesday, killing two farmers, it brought Russia’s war on Ukraine directly to the territory of a NATO ally. The immediate uncertainties included media speculation, and an assertion by Ukraine’s government, that Russia had struck Poland, risking a direct NATO response and an expansion of the war. That immediate threat eased as evidence grew that a Ukrainian air defense missile had strayed — but the incident illustrated that the dangers of an escalated war are real. The only true remedy for this threat is for Russia to stop waging war against Ukraine.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

What a Russian Nuclear Escalation Would Mean for China and India

What a Russian Nuclear Escalation Would Mean for China and India

Thursday, November 10, 2022

By: Andrew Scobell, Ph.D.;  Vikram J. Singh;  Alex Stephenson

Since Russia began its assault on Ukraine last February, India and China have straddled the fence by hinting at their concerns regarding the war’s global fallout while avoiding direct public criticism of Moscow. Despite rhetorical consternation and calls for a peaceful resolution, neither has shown a willingness to meaningfully push back against Putin’s escalations in Ukraine. Instead, the two Asian nuclear powers are approaching the situation with caution and calculated diplomacy to preserve their own strategic interests — both in Russia and the West.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

In Moldova, Russia Wages Another Hybrid War

In Moldova, Russia Wages Another Hybrid War

Thursday, November 3, 2022

By: James Rupert

The past week underscores a rising threat in Europe from Russia’s savage assault on Ukraine: the Kremlin’s parallel destabilization of tiny Moldova, between Ukraine and Romania. The Kremlin is escalating a hybrid subversion campaign against Moldova’s effort to build a stable democracy and join the European Union. It is choking off vital gas supplies to tank the economy, sponsoring mass anti-government protests and helping a fugitive Moldovan oligarch launch the latest of several pro-Russia political parties. European policymakers say Moldova, partly occupied by Russian troops, is one of the countries most vulnerable to a spread of the war in Ukraine.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy