Revisiting the Two-State System for Peaceful Coexistence on the Korean Peninsula

Revisiting the Two-State System for Peaceful Coexistence on the Korean Peninsula

Monday, January 22, 2024

By: Bong-geun Jun

The mounting tensions and risk of nuclear war that plague the Korean Peninsula today are typically attributed to a combination of North Korea’s aggressive nuclear posture and doctrine and the U.S.-South Korea alliance’s proactive deterrence countermeasures. However, while these factors are proximate and important, they themselves stem from a deeper, fundamental cause. The longstanding division of the Korean Peninsula has trapped the two Koreas in an endless unification competition to outcompete and take over one another, which drives the arms race and confrontational military postures against each other. Advancing a “two-state system” that mitigates the unification competition may help promote peaceful coexistence between South and North Korea and reduce the risks of conventional and nuclear war on the peninsula.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Seeking Peaceful Coexistence with North Korea: What Would Kennan Do?

Seeking Peaceful Coexistence with North Korea: What Would Kennan Do?

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

By: Paul J. Heer

The challenge that North Korea poses to the United States — as a hostile, intransigent and seemingly implacable power with nuclear weapons — is in many respects a microcosm of the challenge posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. How would George F. Kennan, who devised the strategy of containment for dealing with the Soviet Union, have advised Washington in confronting Pyongyang?

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Exploring Peaceful Coexistence with North Korea

Exploring Peaceful Coexistence with North Korea

Monday, January 8, 2024

By: Frank Aum

The United States and North Korea coexist today in an antagonistic, high-risk stalemate. The Kim Jong Un government, feeling besieged by a “hostile” U.S. policy and fearing the potential for regime change, has centered its national defense strategy on strengthening deterrence through nuclear weapons. Facing this intractable nuclear threat, the Biden administration has reinforced a coercive, pressure-based approach that relies on diplomatic isolation, military deterrence and economic sanctions to contain, if not change, North Korea’s defiant behavior.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

A More Resilient North Korea in the Post-Pandemic Era

A More Resilient North Korea in the Post-Pandemic Era

Tuesday, December 19, 2023

By: Kyung-joo Jeon

North Korea in the post-pandemic era is becoming increasingly resilient and authoritarian, and less reliant on conventional interactions with the international community. As a result, the U.S. government may need to reconsider its reliance on sanctions as a means to influence the regime in Pyongyang.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

North Korea’s Satellite Launch Adds a Spark to Already Simmering Tensions

North Korea’s Satellite Launch Adds a Spark to Already Simmering Tensions

Monday, November 27, 2023

By: Frank Aum

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are simmering again as a result of North Korea’s launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, which prompted South Korea to lift restrictions on reconnaissance activities imposed by the 2018 inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA). The satellite, which was launched on November 21, utilized ballistic missile technology in violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions. The Biden administration, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and the G7 foreign ministers swiftly condemned the launch.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Three Key Lessons from Past North Korean Denuclearization Diplomacy

Three Key Lessons from Past North Korean Denuclearization Diplomacy

Monday, November 20, 2023

By: Bong-geun Jun

Despite widespread pessimism about the prospects for North Korea’s denuclearization and the utility of denuclearization diplomacy, Washington and Seoul continue to explore denuclearization dialogue with North Korea. In April, President Biden and President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea jointly confirmed in the Washington Declaration that, despite their primary focus on enhancing deterrence measures, they “remain steadfast in their pursuit of dialogue and diplomacy with [North Korea], without preconditions, as a means to advance the shared goal of achieving the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

Type: Analysis

Global PolicyPeace Processes

70 Years After the Armistice, the Korean Peninsula Still Struggles for Peace

70 Years After the Armistice, the Korean Peninsula Still Struggles for Peace

Monday, September 11, 2023

By: Bong-geun Jun

On July 27, 1953, military commanders from the United States, North Korea and China signed an armistice agreement that ended the hostilities of the Korean War. The parties agreed to a “complete cessation of hostilities and of all acts of armed force until a final peaceful settlement is achieved.” They also recommended holding a “political conference” within three months for “the peaceful settlement of the Korean question.” After 70 years of truce, however, peace on the Korean Peninsula is still elusive.

Type: Analysis

Mediation, Negotiation & Dialogue

Frank Aum on the Need for Diplomacy with North Korea

Frank Aum on the Need for Diplomacy with North Korea

Tuesday, August 1, 2023

By: Frank Aum

In the 70 years since the Korean War armistice, mutual deterrence has emerged as the prevailing strategy for preventing conflict on the peninsula. But USIP’s Frank Aum says “deterrence is not an end … [it’s] supposed to buy time” for diplomacy, and the West has the power to restart dialogue with North Korea.

Type: Podcast

Will the ‘Washington Declaration’ Deter North Korea?

Will the ‘Washington Declaration’ Deter North Korea?

Thursday, April 27, 2023

By: Frank Aum;  Adam Gallagher

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol is in Washington this week as the United States and South Korea celebrate 70 years of bilateral ties. Yoon’s visit is only the second state visit hosted by the Biden administration and the first South Korean state visit in 12 years. While there have been some recent strains in the relationship over U.S. trade and semiconductor policy and Seoul’s support for Ukraine, the focus of the bilateral summit was on the threat posed by North Korea. Although the summit ostensibly achieved both sides’ desired security deliverables related to deterrence, reassurance and nonproliferation, these outcomes will likely not provide enduring solutions to the North Korea challenge.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy