Iraq’s leaders are beginning a public debate on whether to ask the American military to leave a contingent of forces there past the end of this year in a test of the country’s leaders to resolve the contentious issue through political debate – or violence.

May 24, 2011

Iraq’s leaders are beginning a public debate on whether to ask the American military to leave a contingent of forces there past the end of this year in a test of the country’s leaders to resolve the contentious issue through political debate – or violence.

Under a three-year-old agreement, all American forces are to leave the country by December 31, 2011. The U.S. military is planning accordingly, expecting to reduce its force dramatically by this fall. But a new political debate has taken hold in Iraq as to whether some of those forces should stay.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki recently raised the issue by putting the decision on the Iraqi parliament. Maliki, a Shiite, said that if there is consensus among parliamentarians on the issue of whether an American force should stay, then he would support it, saying such an outcome is the “mechanism of democracy.”

The move was seen as politically astute. Taking the debate to the parliament threatens to expose political parties who have been saying one thing privately in diplomatic circles, versus their public statements.

“If there is a request [for an extended stay], then Maliki won’t bear all of the political fallout,” says USIP’s Sean Kane.

There had been much reluctance to even touch the issue because it has long been seen as a hard-to-do that could weaken Iraq’s fragile democracy. But some believe Maliki, who likely conferred with Kurdish and Sunni leaders first, demonstrated courageous political leadership by raising it, and thus propelling it into the public square for debate. If American forces were asked to stay, their numbers would likely range between 10,000 and 15,000 and would stay only in an advisory role to the Iraqi military.

Some Shiite leaders have expressed support for the U.S. to stay, and Kurds have long supported an extended U.S. presence. But there is likely no public consensus on the issue among Sunnis. While the Sunni minority is seen as generally in favor of an extended American stay, Sunnis take some political risk in declaring that support publicly – at least for now. And recent demonstrations in Mosul, the Sunni majority city in the north, suggest there are still strong views among Sunnis that the Americans should leave.

For a long time, the political strategy of the Sunni party has been to galvanize public support by taking the position that Americans should leave. However, as the deadline approaches, there is a growing realization that they could be the most vulnerable if the timeline is followed.

Much of the debate turns on Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric who this year returned from a self-imposed exile in Iran. Sadr, who led one of the fiercest anti-American movements within Iraq, still foments such sentiments among his followers and maintains much influence across the country.

“I think he is a significant player,” Kane says.

“On this issue, he will have a lot of support; he can be loud and noisy and provocative on this,” says USIP’s Bill Taylor of Sadr.

Sadr has said that if the American military stays in Iraq, he would instruct his Mahdi army to once again take up arms to resist what he has long termed the American occupation.

In a recent sermon in May in the southern city of Najaf, Sadr called for Iraqis to march and demonstrate against the American presence. “We will not accept the occupation’s troops staying, not even for one day after the end of this year,” Sadr said, according to press reports.

Yet he backed off any order for armed violence, and has hinted that if all of Iraq’s political factions agree the Americans should stay then he would abide by that outcome. “If that’s true, that would be a marked improvement in the political scene in Iraq,” Taylor says.

There are more signs Iraqi leaders welcome the public debate. Kurdish leader Barham Saleh, for example, has urged the Iraqi military, which has long supported the U.S. military staying and maintains influence across Iraq, to speak out. Kane, who returned from Iraq in early May, said it has begun to do just that.

It’s still far from clear how the debate will play out, though one thing is for sure: Iraqis will likely draw the debate out until the last minute, USIP experts say.

Explore Further

Related Publications

Iraq’s Provincial Council Elections: The Way Forward in Nineveh Province

Iraq’s Provincial Council Elections: The Way Forward in Nineveh Province

Wednesday, December 13, 2023

By: Osama Gharizi;  Yomnna Helmi

On December 18, Iraqis will elect members of the provincial councils, the highest oversight bodies of subnational government and key providers of public services. The elections are the first at the provincial level in over a decade and come in the wake of the 2019 anti-government protests that resulted in the dissolution of the provincial councils following demands from the protesters who accused them of corruption. Recent findings from the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Conflict and Stabilization Monitoring Framework in Nineveh Province reveal that candidates are facing a distrustful electorate that is lacking confidence in state institutions.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Climate Adaption Key to Iraq’s Stability and Economic Development

Climate Adaption Key to Iraq’s Stability and Economic Development

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

By: Sarhang Hamasaeed;  Mac Skelton;  Zmkan Ali Saleem

Iraq is projected to be among the five countries hardest hit by the impact of climate change. The country is already witnessing depreciating water supply and accelerating desertification, leading to the loss of as much as 60,000 acres of arable land each year, according to Iraqi government and United Nations sources. These climate phenomena threaten the livelihoods and food security of Iraq’s population of an estimated 43 million, creating conditions for displacement, instability and a deterioration of social cohesion. The water crisis has grown steadily amid severe drought, upstream damming practices in Turkey and Iran, and increased domestic consumption within Iraq’s borders.

Type: Analysis

EnvironmentGlobal Policy

Iraq’s al-Sudani Government, One Year Later

Iraq’s al-Sudani Government, One Year Later

Thursday, November 2, 2023

By: Sarhang Hamasaeed

Last week marked one year since Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani assumed office. His ascension to the role came after a year of deep political tensions, several alarming but contained episodes of violence, and no annual government budget. A political agreement among the Shia coalition known as the Coordination Framework and major Kurdish and Sunni Arab parties set the stage for the al-Sudani government to form — meanwhile, the biggest winner in the 2021 parliamentary elections, cleric and political leader Moqtada al-Sadr, decided to withdraw from the political process altogether.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

View All Publications