The United States enters another year without diplomatic relations with Iran. Around the world nations worry about the potential of Iran to develop its nuclear program. Can a strategy of engagement with Iran yield results? Can the sanctions effort prevail? Or is the military option still on the table. Robin Wright, USIP-Wilson Center Scholar looks at the issues.
December 28, 2010
The United States enters another year without diplomatic relations with Iran. Around the world nations worry about the potential of Iran to develop its nuclear program. Can a strategy of engagement with Iran yield results? Can the sanctions effort prevail? Or is the military option still on the table. Robin Wright, USIP-Wilson Center Scholar looks at the issues.
- As you look back at Iran in 2010, what strikes you as the most important developments?
- What will likely be on the agenda for the U.S. in terms of Iran policy in 2011?
- Why was the Iran Primer such an important product?
As you look back at Iran in 2010, what strikes you as the most important developments?
For the regime, the most important development at home was the crackdown that ended six months of political turmoil launched after the disputed 2009 presidential election. But the government had to militarize to keep its hold on power, making the Revolutionary Guards ever more powerful in politics as well as security.
The regime also faced deepening fissures within traditional political circles, as even conservatives challenged hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on economic and political issues. After repeated delays, Tehran also launched highly unpopular economic reforms that cut back on subsidies of fuel and basic foodstuffs, the first phase of a five-year process that quickly produced significant price hikes--and public anger.
In foreign policy, Iran held its first meeting in 14 months with the world's six major powers, including the United States, to discuss Iran's controversial nuclear program. The talks launched a new process that is scheduled to continue in early 2011. But the new diplomacy did not produce any substantive action.
What will likely be on the agenda for the U.S. in terms of Iran policy in 2011?
In 2011, the United States will face growing pressure to prove that diplomacy with Iran can produce results--and is not just diplomatic dodge-ball that allows Iran to buy time for its nuclear program. The second round of talks are scheduled to be held in Istanbul in early 2011. Washington's goal is to prevent Iran from using a peaceful nuclear energy program to produce the world's deadliest weapon. Without tangible agreements, both Congress and Israel are likely to pressure the Obama administration to consider tougher action.
Why was the Iran Primer such an important product?
“The Iran Primer: Power, Politics and U.S. Policy” is unique because it brought together 50 Iran experts -- roughly half Western and half from Mideast backgrounds from vastly different perspectives -- to analyze all of Iran's major political, military, economic, and foreign affairs issues. It is a living project that produced both a book and an ongoing website that constantly adds new pieces of analysis pegged to breaking developments.