Iraqis demonstrate a remarkable degree of support for democracy, considering the renewed violence of the past year and the effects of sectarianism and corruption on their lives, according to a poll conducted as the country prepares for its first parliamentary elections since the U.S. withdrew its forces in December 2011.

manal and panel

The National Democratic Institute released results of the poll at USIP this week as part of a panel discussion about the prospects of the April 30 balloting to consolidate democratic gains or cement sectarian divides. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is running for a third term as his Shia-dominated government faces increasing unresolved grievances among Sunnis and a revived insurgency fueled by spillover from the war in neighboring Syria.

The campaign season has been marred not only by resurgent violence, but also by candidates’ sectarian appeals, internal political party divisions and by allegations of interference in the vote preparations. At one point, the entire Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), which organizes Iraq’s elections, resigned. The commissioners have since returned to their posts. But questions have arisen over disqualifications of candidates and how displaced Iraqis would be able to participate in the election.

The elections are “a very important milestone in Iraq’s political transition,” said Manal Omar, USIP’s associate vice president for the Middle East and Africa, in the April 16 event.

Zalmay Khalilzad, a former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, agreed and said that, while U.S. influence has waned somewhat, the international community still has a role. The U.S. and the United Nations can facilitate discussions, exert pressure for improvements and propose ideas to bridge differences.

This election in some ways is “more important than any other election that Iraq has had,” Khalilzad said. “I fear that, if it produces deadlock or more of the same … it may lead to more fundamental questions being raised about the future,” he said, alluding to periodic talk of dividing Iraq along sectarian and nationalist lines.

Despite a pronounced level of excitement about the elections and an encouraging diversity in the approximately 9,000 candidates running for 328 seats in the Council of Representatives, the impending election poses yet another test for Iraq’s fragile political system, said Sarhang Hamasaeed, a senior program officer at USIP. Security concerns, sectarian rhetoric and over-personalization of the race centered on Maliki’s role are among the potential threats to stability.

That makes some of the findings in NDI’s poll, conducted Jan. 22 through March 8, all the more surprising. Pollsters found that 41 percent of Iraqis believe the country is going in the right direction, up from 31 percent in September. The improvement may be due to pessimism last year as violence began to rise again and in the wake of provincial elections, said Elvis Zutic, NDI’s resident director in Iraq, in presenting the data.

Security, unemployment and corruption were the top issues for respondents in the poll, while basic services prompted less concern. A majority – 65 percent – said electricity and water supplies were improving, 56 percent said education was getting better and 55 percent said the cost of living was becoming more manageable. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent for the national results.

Omar said the concerns over corruption as reflected in the poll echo the worries she has heard in her last few visits to Iraq. No matter who wins the election, it will be crucial for leaders to build coalitions and improve the functioning of state institutions, she said.

The poll’s findings also showed that 65 percent of Iraqis still believe democracy is the best form of government for their country, including 71 percent in Baghdad and 75 percent in the country’s south. Furthermore, 72 percent of respondents said they think elections are “a good thing,” and 75 percent are more enthusiastic about the upcoming vote than they were about previous elections. In addition to electing members of the Council of Representatives, voters also will choose candidates for provincial assemblies in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The rest of Iraq conducted provincial elections last year.

USIP has been working in Iraq since shortly after the 2003 U.S. invasion, remaining there during the height of the violence in 2006 and 2007 to work with national and provincial leaders to resolve conflicts in areas such as Nineveh Province. The nonprofit, non-partisan NDI, which works to strengthen democratic institutions in transitional countries, also has been involved in Iraq since June 2003, said Les Campbell, NDI’s senior associate and regional director for Middle East and North Africa programs.

Considering sharpening sectarian divisions that have pitted Iraqi Sunnis against Shias for decades, the poll found that only a third of Iraqis believe sectarianism is too deeply rooted in their society to ever go away, while 58 percent said the divides would lesson in the long run.

“A majority, except in Kurdistan, believes [that] in time – in time – sectarianism will become less of a factor,” Zutic said. In the south, the optimists on that point made up 72 percent of the respondents, a “huge, huge majority,” he said. In the Kurdish area, 50 percent believed sectarianism was too deep to be uprooted.

Results varied sometimes dramatically among Iraq’s regions. In Baghdad, 61 percent of respondents said relations between Sunnis and Shias are getting worse, as did 49 percent of residents in Iraq’s south. But in the west and north of the country, 54 percent and 76 percent, respectively, said relations between the two sects were worsening, a reflection of heightened violence in those areas in the past year.

A failure of the elections to deliver some sense of hope for Sunnis to have their interests addressed could discourage more of them to the point of violence, Hamasaeed said. Sunnis in the country’s northwest have tried to agitate for change through peaceful protests and civil disobedience. But when Iraqi security forces launched a military campaign against the Islamic Sate of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) and broke up a protest camp late last year, the Sunni militants allied with an insurgent group nominally linked to al-Qaida swept in to take over parts of Ramadi and Falluja.

“The election is definitely an opportunity,” Hamasaeed said. “I think the winners should not see that as an endorsement of existing policies, should the existing leaders remain in power. And those who do not get the result that they wish – it is very important for them not to go for an all-or-nothing kind of scenario.”

Viola Gienger is a senior writer at USIP.

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