The CSMF reflects USIP’s commitment to monitoring as a tool for adaptive institutional learning. In Iraq, USIP is using this data to adjust its programs to the changing conflict environment. CSMF findings inform the design of USIP’s ongoing local dialogue and participatory governance processes in Nineveh which address tensions that discourage social cohesion, community development, and the return of internally displaced persons (IDPs) from minority communities. The findings help USIP understand what issues may be ripe for attention, and thereby calibrate its approaches to specific conflict drivers.

Since September 2018, seven waves of CSMF data have been collected from residents and IDPs of communities across Iraq’s Nineveh province. A microcosm of Iraq’s social mosaic, Nineveh is home to Christians, Yazidis (Ezidis), Shabaks, Kaka’is, Kurds, Turkmens, and both Sunni and Shia Arabs. These communities have undergone intense disruptions and violence since the self-styled Islamic State’s (ISIS) incursion in 2014. Despite the territorial defeat of ISIS, many remain displaced from towns and villages across the province, unable or unwilling to return to their homes. The complex interplay of political and security factors in ISIS’s wake has also contributed to intercommunal tensions between ethnoreligious groups.

CSMF data collection currently occurs in Nineveh province, but may be expanded to other locations in the future. 

Data collection for Wave 7 occurred in four districts — Hamdaniya, Sinjar, Tal Afar, and Mosul — in March 2023 with a sample size 3,021 and gender balance of approximately 71% men to 29% women. Waves 4 to 6 of data collection occurred in three districts — Hamdaniya, Sinjar, and Tal Afar — in November-December 2021 (sample size 2,002), May-June 2021 (sample size 2,009), and October-November 2020 (sample size 2,002). The gender balance was for the sixth wave approximately 67% men to 33% women, with 1,338 men and 664 women; fifth wave approximately 64% men to 36% women, with 1,277 men and 732 women; and fourth wave approximately 60% men to 40% women, with 1,225 men and 777 women. The first three waves of data collection occurred in four districts — Hamdaniya, Sinjar, Tal Afar, and Tal Keif — in February 2018 (sample size 1,100), August 2018 (sample size 1,505), and April and May 2019 (sample size 1,851).

USIP recognizes the data has limitations. The tool covers extremely complex, fluid issues, often subjective in nature. And because CSMF reaches local Iraqis living in these communities, conflict dynamics and conditions on the ground sometimes present challenges in data collection.

USIP encourages feedback on the CSMF: How is this data being used? How could it be improved or expanded to address gaps in existing data?

CSMF Framework - Stabilization Goals and Indicators

The table below offers a snapshot of the themes and 25 goals that comprise the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh waves of the CSMF. Each goal is subdivided into a series of indicators.