PrintStep 1 - Assess the Conflict
The first step in any mediation effort should be to assess the conflict. That assessment should neither overwhelm the mediator with extraneous information from an exhaustive historical review, nor be so cursory as to risk generating only foregone conclusions and standard formulas. Instead, conflict analysis should provide a contextualized understanding of the conflict and answer questions of strategy: at what level to engage, how to gain leverage, and on whom to focus efforts.
That said, the mediator frequently works in muddy waters in regard to the knowledge at his or her disposal; required information may be ambiguous, flawed, or unavailable. The mediator may often have to navigate relying not on hard information but on experience, intuition, and common sense, but it helps to know what questions the mediator would ideally like answered.
Generally, this step involves four activities: (1) understanding what the conflict is about, (2) understanding who the actors are, (3) understanding the larger context, and (4) understanding sources of power and leverage.
Understand What the Conflict Is About
The basic question, "What is this conflict about?" can be conceptualized in a number of ways. Some analysts use conflict analysis tools that focus on issues and interests; others on grievances, needs, and relationships; while others create problem trees or possibility trees. Each of these approaches has value, but ultimately the most valuable tools are simply those that the mediator finds most useful.
Analyze the History and Causes of the Conflict
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In order to communicate effectively with parties, a mediator needs to grasp the history and content of the conflict as it matters to the participants, including key symbols and turning points. Some of this will be ancient history; some of it will be fabricated.
What is being contested? Is it territory, sovereignty and local autonomy, control of natural resources or wealth, religious or ethnic identity? What are the commonalities among the different issues? A conflict may have multiple manifestations, being "about" different things at different levels: local, national, regional, and international. For example, a local or even a private land dispute may become an ethnic dispute over land access at the community or municipal level, attracting other partisan issues at the national level.
To the uninformed, the conflict between North and South Sudan may appear to be a case of Muslim versus Christian, when in fact the sources of conflict are much more complex.
The extended trajectory of a conflict may also include a shifting range of core issues, with a new area of contestation arising whenever another is resolved. The mediator should trace this trajectory to fully understand the history and causes of the conflict.
Assess Positions and Interests
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The mediator must identify the positions of the parties to the conflict and the issues that divide them. Their perceptions and misperceptions of themselves and their antagonists, of the course of the conflict thus far, and of the process of negotiation will be central to their willingness to engage in mediation. What factors, including personal and cultural ones, underlie positions? For example, does a leader fear that he or she may be killed if peace becomes a reality, or does the society regard compromise as a sign of weakness?
The mediator should differentiate between the stated positions and the underlying interests of the key actors. How will different conflict resolution scenarios affect underlying interests? Even if issues being contested are settled, actors' interests might continue to drive conflict. Who has an interest in keeping the conflict going? For some people, for instance, the conflict may be a source of power or wealth or a means of avoiding justice. Some of these interests may be legitimate and could be satisfied by means other than conflict.
How do the issues, positions, and interests of the antagonists line up? For example, do the rebels really want secession, or are their demands an expression of a need for greater security? Perhaps they do indeed need more security, but perhaps their claims of insecurity are just part of a strategy to gain control of the state.
Understand the Actors
Ultimately, the local society must be responsible for the resolution of conflict, but it is likely that a number of other actors will be involved. Effective mediators devise different forms of engagement appropriate to and functional for different actors. Some actors will have a place at the table. Others will have observer status. Private and public consultations will occur in many different forms. Part of an effective mediation strategy is finding constructive forms of inclusion for different actors.
Analyze the Parties to the Conflict
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The mediator should examine the groups directly involved in the conflict, including how they define themselves and whether they possess political as well as military wings. What are the groups' profiles within the larger society? How large a part of the overall population do they represent? What is the quality of their connection to their constituency?
The group's internal organizational structure is an important consideration. What is the hierarchy or chain of command? Is the chain of command generally stable and effective? The concentration of power within the group should be taken into account, including how decisions are made and who participates in decision making, as well as the cohesiveness of the group and any existing or potential internal factions.
The failure of the Darfur Peace Agreement in 2006 derived in part from a failure of the mediators to recognize the complexity of the factionalism within the rebel movements. Peace negotiations in Burundi have also been complicated by multiple rebel movements and factions, with varying levels of commitment to the peace process.
The mediator should identify the top leaders and the basis of their authority (e.g., military prowess, political skill, popular following, or potential to lead after the conflict). How are the leaders accountable to their group and to the populace? How removed are they from the costs and consequences of the conflict? It is helpful to consider the consequences for the conflict of a change in the top leadership.
Midlevel leaders may be significant to a negotiation. In profiling the middle level, the mediator should determine how independent its members are from the top leadership and identify the relevant social networks to which they may be connected (e.g., the business community, professional associations, churches, academic institutions, and the popular arts community).
Spoilers may attempt to scuttle a peace process. The mediator should try to determine their interests for doing so, the support they might command, and the channels they might use to obtain resources to continue the conflict.
Parties need leadership skills and organizational forms that can serve peaceful as well as military functions. Parties will also require resources to conduct a negotiation effectively and the capacity not only to reach decisions but also to deliver their constituencies. The mediator should assess the relevant skills, resources, and influence of the different parties.
Recognizing weaknesses in the Palestine Liberation Organization's negotiating capability, the United Kingdom supported the development of a new Negotiation Support Unit to enhance the skills of the Palestinian team in its negotiations with Israelis and various international mediators.
A mediator generally does not have the power to select the negotiating counterparts in a peace process. Being fully informed about the parties to the conflict will help a mediator devise a strategy appropriate for moving those parties toward peace.
Analyze Civil Society and the Populace
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The mediator should assess the organization of civil society, including patterns of civic engagement and representation. What civic organizations or associations continue to operate (e.g., political parties, professional organizations, labor unions, village councils, religious institutions, social clubs)? Some of these may be capable of bringing pressure to bear on militant groups. Some may have cross-cutting memberships and could initiate or house early, low-profile contact between parties. Some may possess relevant skills for negotiating or administering portions of a peace agreement. Some might evolve into political parties and offer a workable alternative to combatant-based political parties.
How directly involved is the populace in the conflict? Is civil society represented by the parties directly engaged in the conflict? Does it actively support the parties to the conflict? The means available to civil society for effectively holding conflict leaders accountable should be taken into consideration.
In order to construct a peace agreement that can be successfully implemented, it is essential to understand the basic condition of the populace. The mediator should assess the populace's existing level of security and how the populace fits into existing governance, legal, economic, and social structures. The mediator should also learn about the capacity of the society to maintain communal structures, the availability of humanitarian aid, and the extent of geographic dispersal. Other issues to bear in mind are the numbers of and provisions for refugees and internally displaced persons.
Societal participation in a peace process can include many different activities and degrees of engagement. Some individuals or groups may play an active role, representing civil society in negotiations. Others may provide support to the process. Feasible forms of participation will be determined in part by the preexisting profile and organizational assets of civil society.
Identify International Actors
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Other states (especially neighboring or powerful states with close relations with the parties), as well as regional or international organizations may influence local parties. Are there interested states that could thwart or assist the mediation effort? What leverage do they bring to the table? Who will behave as an ally to or adversary of the conflict parties? Differences between Russia and the Western powers over the peace agreement for Kosovo created obstacles to its adoption and implementation. States that are able and willing to serve as guarantors of a peace settlement should be identified. What sources of support can they bring to make a settlement more attractive and help with its implementation?
The roles that international and regional organizations are playing or could play in the peace process should also be considered. What is the degree of international public attention to the conflict? Wider international or regional interest may also have a significant impact on prospects for peace.
Identify Other Players
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Actors such as diasporas, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and media can derail a peace process or help to keep it on track. They may not be central participants in a negotiation, but no mediation strategy should neglect them.
Diasporas
Diasporas can have a large impact on peace processes. The mediator should create a clear profile of the diaspora or diasporas involved in the conflict, including their size, concentration, and connection to the country of origin. A diaspora may include a shadow government or people interested in becoming post-conflict leaders who have maintained links to constituencies. It may send resources (money, arms, or even combatants) to the conflict. Perhaps it could bring pressure on the government where it is located to either support or obstruct a peace process.
The Liberian diaspora has played a positive role in supporting post-conflict development.
International Non-Governmental Organizations
Determine if international NGOs are providing humanitarian aid or engaged in other projects locally. If so, the mediator should determine the length of their involvement and their possession of local ties, staff, and language skills. Are they a trusted local presence? If they are involved with communities on both sides of the conflict, they could play a valuable role in a peace process.
Media
The mediator must acquire a keen understanding of local media, including mass media, the media by which the elite communicate with one another, and any forms of popular alternative or independent media. Who controls the media? How do they do so (e.g., by financing, regulation, or technology)? Have the local media played a direct role in the conflict (e.g., by stoking intercommunal hatreds and inciting violence)? The mediator should assess the quality of the media coverage both of the conflict and of peace efforts.
Understand the Larger Context
Peace settlements may well include transformative elements that, over time, will radically change a society. But the achievement of those transformations requires a settlement that is compatible with the society's evolving institutional profile and with the regional context.
Identify Indigenous and International Institutions for Managing Conflict
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The mediator should take into account institutions and processes that the society already possesses for dealing with conflict nonviolently. Some peace processes will be able to take advantage of these, while others will have to engineer substantially new bodies and systems.
The mediator should consider the political history of the country in conflict, including the stability, effectiveness, and legitimacy of its governing institutions. How has the country handled political contention? Is there space for dissent or a tradition of a loyal opposition? Will existing legal, economic, social, and security institutions be capable of accommodating and sustaining the changes required by a settlement, such as absorbing former combatants or implementing reconciliation programs?
Through economic incentives and political accommodation, Mozambique managed to demobilize and absorb RENAMO rebels in the 1990s.
In the international context, it is imperative to assess existing and potential international institutions and processes for managing conflicts such as criminal tribunals, "contact" and "friends" groups, and relevant international conflict resolution mechanisms.
Identify and Address Characteristics of Intractability
International mediation is often a last resort for the parties to a conflict, and thus when a mediator finally comes onto the scene, he or she faces a very stubborn and challenging situation. Many factors can make a conflict protracted or unusually difficult to resolve: for instance, cocooned elites, the absence of real pressure for a settlement, fear of accountability, identity politics, material stakes, outside manipulation, the lack of outside help or wider security mechanisms, and the impact of previous, failed attempts at mediation.
Thorough strategic assessment of the conflict is even more critical in these protracted cases in order to identify points of leverage that may encourage the parties to see the costs of continued fighting in a different way and to entertain options other than violence. The mediation strategy should address the characteristics of intractability as well as the root causes of the conflict. Failure to recognize that Jonas Savimbi was not prepared to cooperate in the implementation of any peace agreement for Angola unless it made him head of state led to the unraveling of the Bicesse Peace Accord and the Lusaka Accords.
Understand Sources of Power and Leverage
Identify Resources and Parties' Control over Them
Antagonists may depend on many different forms of power: for instance, control of armed forces and materiel, territorial control, control of natural resources or wealth, popular support and legitimacy, external diplomatic or political support. The mediator should pay particular attention to antagonists' key sources of material resources, including state assets, commodity exports, predation on local populations, theft of humanitarian aid, and diaspora funding. Is the antagonists' hold on these resources secure and sustainable?
One reason why the Colombian government is more likely to reach a peace agreement with ELN than with FARC is that ELN does not have the economic base in drug trafficking that FARC has.
Significant nonmaterial resources of the different parties, such as popular support, fear (of power holders or of opponents), community cohesion, control of media, and endorsement by spiritual leaders should also be factored into the mediator's calculations.
Interrupting or protecting a flow of resources might give the mediator strategic leverage. The mediator should explore helping parties gain and secure access to resources by means other than violent conflict and should determine what forms of resource-sharing are feasible. The mediator should also identify what resources currently deployed for conflict might be turned toward peacemaking.
Assess the Relative Strength of Parties and How It Is Changing
Which, if any, of the antagonists has the upper hand in the conflict? Is this situation stable or dynamic? Ample staying power and self-sufficiency may make a party less susceptible to pressure. Parties may also be well informed or misinformed about their relative strength. Would different information alter interpretations of the balance of power? Understanding the balance of power between parties may help elites recognize a stalemate and thus hasten the ripeness of a conflict for resolution.
Feature Box 1-1: Sources of Leverage
Source: Adapted from Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, Taming Intractable Conflicts: Mediation in the Hardest Cases (Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2004), pp. 94-95. |
Feature Box 1-2: Begin to Develop Realistic GoalsAlthough it is impossible to know at the beginning of a mediation process what the final outcome will be, it is essential to formulate some hypotheses about what might be achievable. In this process it is important to develop a manageable agenda and to set attainable goals. For example, a mediation process focused on the Middle East should not seek to solve all the divisive issues plaguing the region. The mediation process does need to resolve those issues that are essential to sustainable peace, but to go beyond those core issues would be to wade into a morass and endanger the success of the mediation effort. |
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