Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Myanmar: New Data Show Wide Support for Unity Government
The three-month offensive by Myanmar’s alliance of disparate ethnic armed groups has weakened the military regime more than at any time since it seized power three years ago. This highlights a question for international policymakers: Could the anti-coup forces stabilize Myanmar? New public opinion data bolsters evidence that the National Unity Government (NUG) — which combines representatives elected in the 2020 election and ethnic minority leaders — has a solid basis to lead such an effort, holding strong popular support across Myanmar’s numerous ethnic groups. Such stabilization will depend on the NUG’s ability to deepen its inclusivity and responsiveness and broaden its political coalition.
Myanmar’s Fateful Conscription Law
Earlier this month, Myanmar’s ruling junta enacted a compulsory conscription law that had been dormant since 2010. General Guan Maw, a leader of the Kachin Independence Organization, greeted the junta's decision by comparing it to the 2021 military coup: "If February 1, 2021, was the beginning of the end, the law enforced on February 10, 2024, can be said to mark the end of the end.” As popular reactions to the new conscription plan roll out across the country, General Guan Maw’s pronouncement becomes increasingly prescient.
Two Years Later, What Has the Indo-Pacific Strategy Achieved?
This month marks the second anniversary of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). USIP experts Carla Freeman, Mirna Galic, Daniel Markey, and Vikram Singh assess what the strategy has accomplished in the past two years, how it has navigated global shocks and its impact on partnerships in the region.
Three Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Generals Face an Existential Crisis
Three years after Myanmar’s military overthrew the country’s democratically elected government, the ruling generals — having suffered humiliating battlefield defeats — face an existential crisis. Victories by the diverse ranks of Myanmar’s resistance have invigorated their morale and they are tightening battlefield coordination despite slow progress toward political consensus. The military, meanwhile, is short of manpower and controls a shrinking percentage of the nation.
Jason Tower on China’s Growing Influence in Myanmar
A string of recent defeats for Myanmar’s junta has “re-energized the resistance across the country,” says USIP’s Jason Tower. But as China takes a more involved approach to the conflict, there are concerns that “growing Chinese influence might pose more of a challenge to a free and open Indo-Pacific in the future.”
The Myanmar Army’s War Against Mental Health and Psychosocial Support
After nearly 75 years of sustained conflict, Myanmar’s population has suffered devastating and compounding intergenerational trauma. But rather than address that collective trauma, successive military governments have terrorized the country while also disinvesting from systems of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS).
China’s Influence Increases amid Myanmar’s Instability
Operation 1027 in Myanmar’s northern Shan State has advanced China’s quest to eradicate forced labor scam compounds on its border. However, it has also disrupted the lucrative China-Myanmar border trade and triggered a countrywide attack by resistance forces that has dealt the junta unprecedented battlefield losses. Beijing is concerned that its southwestern provinces will experience economic hardship with the loss of border trade, and that continuing hostilities may affect these provinces’ energy security. The Myanmar army’s desperate request for Chinese help to deal with the fallout from Operation 1027 has probably generated further concern in China that the military may be on the brink of defeat.
Priscilla Clapp on the Recent Success of Myanmar’s Resistance
Increased coordination between various elements of Myanmar’s resistance has sparked massive gains, says USIP’s Priscilla Clapp: “In just a few weeks, the opposition forces have managed to dislodge the military from their bases and encampments” along many parts of the borders with China, Thailand, India and Bangladesh.
We Shouldn’t Fear a Resistance Victory in Myanmar
As the national uprising against Myanmar’s coup regime has gained strength, a singular question has hovered over the widening campaign: If this patchwork of ethnic armed groups, deposed elected leaders, activists and armed defense forces manages to topple the junta, would they be able to govern, or would the country descend into greater chaos?
Myanmar’s Junta Is Losing Control of Its Border with China
Myanmar’s military has lost control of substantial sections of the country’s border with China in recent days, as forces fighting the coup regime coordinate their attacks in an unprecedented way. The immediate aim of the combined offensive was to shut down lucrative criminal activity in enclaves along the Chinese frontier that are run by military-sponsored border guard forces. Significantly, in doing so, the insurgents took advantage of China’s recent efforts to stifle scams run from the enclaves that target Chinese citizens. This could mark a turning point in the national struggle against military rule, one that would pose serious new challenges to the anti-coup leadership, the international community and Myanmar’s neighbors.