On the Issues: Lebanon
Mona Yacoubian, director of the Lebanon Working Group at the U.S. Institute of Peace and special adviser to the Institute’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, discusses recent developments in Lebanon, and their broader impact on the region as well as prospects for peace in the Middle East.
October 19, 2010
Mona Yacoubian, director of the Lebanon Working Group at the U.S. Institute of Peace and special adviser to the Institute’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, discusses recent developments in Lebanon, and their broader impact on the region as well as prospects for peace in the Middle East.
- Lebanon seems to come up often in the context of the Middle East and the Israeli-Palestinian process, as well as in the context of Iran. Can you help place Lebanon’s role in the broader regional context?
- Recently the Israeli prime minister said that Lebanon is becoming a satellite of Iran? What do you think he means by this?
- What is the relationship between Iran and Lebanon?
- What is happening inside Lebanon right now?
- What is the status of the United Nations Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)? What is the case about? Do you expect indictments soon?
- What type of work is USIP involved in concerning Lebanon?
Lebanon seems to come up often in the context of the Middle East and the Israeli-Palestinian process, as well as in the context of Iran. Can you help place Lebanon’s role in the broader regional context?
Lebanon’s relatively small size–with a population of four million and less square mileage than Connecticut—belies its strategic importance in the Levant. Lebanon lacks the traditional measures of strategic heft in the Middle East such as significant petroleum resources, a formidable army, or a strategic weapons arsenal, but the Mediterranean country sits astride some of the region’s most volatile fault lines. With 18 different religious sects, Lebanon is a primary arena for the region’s mounting sectarian tensions, especially between Sunnis and Shiites. A “front line” state in the Arab-Israeli conflict, Lebanon has had two brutal wars with Israel, and many fear a third Lebanon-Israel war is in the offing. Hezbollah—the militant Shiite organization with deep ties to Iran—is based in Lebanon, touting itself as a key player, together with Iran, Syria, and Hamas, in the “axis of resistance” against Israel. Finally, Lebanon has long served as a proxy battlefield for some of the region’s defining conflicts – between Israel and Syria, Israel and Iran, and the United States and Iran.
Recently the Israeli prime minister said that Lebanon is becoming a satellite of Iran? What do you think he means by this?
Prompted by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Lebanon last week, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s statement reflects growing Israeli concerns about Iran’s influence in Lebanon. Ahmadinejad’s visit included three public rallies, including two in southern Lebanon. During his speech in the Lebanese village of Bint Jbeil, just two miles from the Israeli border, Ahmadinejad taunted the Israelis, quoted in The Washington Post as saying, “The entire world should know that the Zionists will disappear” and that “occupied Palestine will be liberated.” The Iranian president’s trip was a media spectacle with Iranian flags and Ahmadinejad posters together with those of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah plastering the airport road, Beirut’s southern suburbs and villages in southern Lebanon. While his trip was not a “game changer,” and did not alter the fundamental power dynamics on the ground in Lebanon which already favor Hezbollah, it did serve as a powerful symbol of Iran’s projection of influence into the Levant and was therefore disquieting to the Israelis.
What is the relationship between Iran and Lebanon?
Iran’s relationship with Lebanon is complex and mirrors the differences within Lebanon’s volatile confessional mix. For example, Iran’s ties to Hezbollah are deep, reaching back to the Iran’s critical role in helping to foster the militant organization’s creation in the early 1980s. Since that time, Iran has provided significant financial aid (estimated in the billions of dollar) and weaponry to Hezbollah, while its unique system of theocratic governance (velayati-e faqih) has served as a source of inspiration to the Hezbollah leadership. Indeed, Tehran has played a significant role in financing the reconstruction of Beirut’s predominantly Shiite southern suburbs and significant portions of south Lebanon which were destroyed in Hezbollah’s summer 2006 war with Israel. During last week’s visit, Iran and Lebanon signed 17 agreements reportedly worth $450 million in the economic, oil, and energy fields. While Lebanon’s Shiite community feels a strong bond of kinship to Iran, its Sunni and Christian communities are far more conflicted, if not threatened outright by Iran’s ambitions in Lebanon. For the Sunni community in particular, ties with Shiite Iran are fraught with deep-rooted sectarian tensions. Meanwhile, the Christian community is split on Iran’s role in Lebanon, reflecting deeper divisions within the community over its relations with Lebanon’s Shiites. One segment of the Christian community, led by General Michel Aoun, has sided with Hezbollah and the opposition in Lebanon, viewing relations with Iran positively. Other Christian leaders such as Lebanese Forces head Samir Geagea are staunchly opposed to Hezbollah and to Iran’s ties to Lebanon.
What is happening inside Lebanon right now?
For the past few months, most notably since the beginning of the summer, Lebanon has entered a period of mounting tension both regionally with Israel and internally. At the regional level, tensions with Israel flared in early August when a border incident between the Lebanese Armed Forces and the Israel Defense Forces escalated into a violent clash. Both sides pulled back from an all-out conflict; however concerns remain high that a third war between Israel and Lebanon could take place within the year.
Since the end of the summer 2006 war, Hezbollah has re-armed, claiming an arsenal of 40,000 rockets and other highly sophisticated weaponry. For its part, Israel has noted its heightened concern about Hezbollah’s ascendance in Lebanon as well as the nuclear ambitions of Iran, Hezbollah’s principal patron. By numerous estimates, the next war between Israel and Lebanon will be significant, encompassing all of Lebanon, and possibly including Syria, and inflicting massive civilian casualties.
At the domestic level, sectarian tensions have been on the rise, propelled by mounting speculation that members of Hezbollah could be indicted by the United Nation’s Special Tribunal for Lebanon. In a series of interviews and press conferences, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has underscored his organization’s refusal to cooperate with the tribunal and hand over suspects in the event they are indicted. Instead, Nasrallah is pressuring Prime Minister Saad Hariri to disavow the U.N. court completely. In pursuit of its objective to discredit the tribunal, Hezbollah could undertake a series of actions ranging from boycotting government decisions to street protests and outright violence. For his part, Prime Minister Hariri has emphasized that the tribunal –which is investigating the murder of his father—must proceed unimpeded. In essence the tribunal has become the latest battleground for Lebanon’s deeper sectarian competition. Hezbollah views the potential indictments as threatening the organization’s existence, while the Sunni community perceives the possibility of Hezbollah’s culpability in the murder of a key Sunni leader as a far-reaching transgression with sectarian overtones. Barring an unlikely compromise, Lebanon is headed for a period of deepening popular tensions and possibly civil strife.
What is the status of the United Nations Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)? What is the case about? Do you expect indictments soon?
Following the February 2005 car bomb attack that killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and 22 others, the Lebanese government requested that the United Nations establish an international tribunal to prosecute suspects connected to the bombing. The United Nations Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) was formally established in May 2007 by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1757 which created the tribunal under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter. Since that time, the tribunal, which is based in The Hague and funded jointly by the international community and the Lebanese government, has proceeded with preparations for the trial. While suspicions initially centered on elements connected to the Syrian regime, the investigation more recently has focused on Hezbollah. Indictments are expected to be issued before the end of the year.
What type of work is USIP involved in concerning Lebanon?
The main thrust of USIP's work on Lebanon is focused on the Lebanon Working Group which seeks to enhance the foreign policy community's understanding of the many complex issues embodied by Lebanon's internal and regional politics. The Working Group brings together Lebanon experts from across the government, think tank, academic and nongovernmental sectors to share knowledge and expertise in order to better inform their work. The Working Group occasionally sponsors public events and produces a number of publications.
