The Future of Pakistan

Summary

• Growing economic and political instability, rising support for extremism and increasing tensions in Pakistan’s relationship with the United States currently threaten the country’s prospects for a stable future.
• Domestic actors with the capacity to build consensus across Pakistan’s fractured society must address the widening divergence of opinion among Pakistanis regarding responsibilities of the state and citizenry.
• Until Pakistan feels more secure within its perception of regional threats, Islamabad will likely resist enacting and implementing strict counter-terrorism policies.
• To improve and sustain the U.S.-Pakistan relationship, the U.S. needs to continuously signal its resolve to remain committed to the partnership, apply innovative diplomatic gestures to engage Islamabad, resist the temptation to oversee Pakistan’s day to day domestic affairs and widen the policymaking lens to ensure a more holistic understanding of Pakistan and its neighbors.
• Despite incongruities between Pakistan and U.S. interests, the bilateral alliance is imperative to the U.S.’s regional and security interests, and remains a central aspect of both countries’ calculus for the future.

About this Brief

This report is based on views expressed by 11 panel chairs and panelists during the January 31, 2011 event, “The Future of Pakistan,” hosted by USIP’s Center for Conflict Management and the Brookings Institution. This Peace Brief was written by USIP program assistant Stephanie Flamenbaum and research assistant Megan Neville, and Constantino Xavier, a senior research assistant with the Brookings Institution’s 21st Century Defense Initiative.