Tunisia’s prospects for retaining its title as the only transition of the Arab Spring that hasn’t failed or collapsed into violence faces further tests this month and next, with important parliamentary elections scheduled for Oct. 26 and a presidential election on Nov. 23. USIP Acting President William B. Taylor, a former special coordinator for Middle East transitions in the State Department, considers what’s at stake.

On Saturday, a voter peruses one of the many officially designated walls where parties were permitted to present their campaign posters. More than 65 parties and independent lists competed for seats in the constituent assembly.
Photo Credit: Freedom House/Flickr

It’s been four years since Tunisia’s peaceful uprising ousted its leader of more than two decades,  President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Has there been any progress toward stabilizing the country and moving forward toward recovery?
Tunisia has made great progress toward a democratic transition—the election on Sunday is an important next step in that transition.  The new constitution and non-political form of government developed and endorsed through Tunisia’s national dialogue process have put the country on a positive path toward stability.

Tunisians are showing serious signs of discontent over the political wrangling, high consumer prices and unemployment and the persistent threat of extremism. How fragile is this transition?
All transitions are fragile.  The Tunisians have done better than others in keeping theirs on track.  The new government that will be formed after the elections on Sunday will have big challenges—both security and economic.  They will have to make the country safe and get the economy growing to generate the jobs that too many Tunisians are now lacking.

How are the Islamists and the secularists likely to fare in these upcoming elections?
Ennahda, the moderate Islamist party, and Nida Tounes, the leading secular party, are both set to do well in the elections.  Neither, however, is likely to win enough seats to form a government by itself, so a coalition government will be necessary.  In transitional circumstances, a broad coalition might bring the stability Tunisians are looking for. It’s up to the Tunisians to decide.

What effect does Tunisia’s transition have on the broader Middle East and North Africa?
Tunisia’s successful transition can demonstrate to the region and the world that Arab Muslim nations can navigate the difficult path to a successful democracy.  Tunisia will need strong support—political and financial—from nations in the Middle East, Europe and the United States.

What will you be looking for in the election results? What indices will tell you the most about the outcome?
I’ll be looking for a free and fair election without violence.  Then the formation of a strong, stable government to continue Tunisia’s progress toward a successful democracy with a growing economy that serves its people.

Related Publications

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

By: Alex Vines;  Henry Tugendhat;  Armida van Rij

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses. We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

The Current Situation in Tunisia

The Current Situation in Tunisia

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Tunisia’s transition to democracy remains incomplete and under stress. Since the presidential measures to suspend the parliament, dismiss the government and draft a new constitution were enacted in 2021, socioeconomic conditions have continued to deteriorate, and risks of unrest have increased. Meanwhile, the ambitions of the 2011 revolution for rule of law, accountability, economic prosperity and human dignity are far from being realized. USIP works with Tunisians to improve national and local governance and security, rebuild trust and strengthen civil society.

Type: Fact Sheet

Overcoming the Challenges of Transitional Mobilization

Overcoming the Challenges of Transitional Mobilization

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

By: Suha Hassen;  Jonathan Pinckney

Nonviolent action can be a powerful way to bring about peaceful transitions from autocratic rule to democracy. But even when initially successful, movement leaders often face significant challenges, from frustrations that grievances are not addressed quickly enough to counterrevolutions aimed at restoring the authoritarian status quo. This report examines two recent transitions—the 2011 Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution—and presents recommendations for improving the likelihood that change initiated through nonviolent action leads to robust and lasting democracy.

Type: Peaceworks

Nonviolent Action

View All Publications