Kosovo today is an international protectorate created by UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which foresees establishment of substantial autonomy and self-governance under the aegis of the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) followed by a decision on final status. In the three and a half years since the NATO/Yugoslavia war, officials have generally avoided discussion of Kosovo final status and sought to postpone the decision foreseen in resolution 1244. At the same time, pressures are building and many informed observers believe that a decision will be needed sooner rather than later, but certainly within the next two to five years. Continuing to defer the matter will increase the risk of future conflict.

Summary

  • Although a decision is still several years off, it is more than time to begin thinking about how a decision on Kosovo final status will be made and to start the process.
  • The unresolved status of Kosovo hurts investment, slows Serb returns, and generates Albanian unrest and distrust of the international community.
  • Status should be decided by negotiation between Belgrade and Pristina, with strong participation of the United States and European Union, before a crisis forces the issue.
  • The UNMIK benchmarks should be linked to a decision on final status.
  • The critical unfulfilled benchmarks are democratic self-governance, return of refugees and displaced people, and respect for the rule of law.
  • Also important is dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade on issues other than final status. This should begin in 2003, with support from UNMIK.
  • Once this dialogue begins, proactive consultations on the next steps should begin among the United States, European Union, United Nations, and Russia, with a view to starting final status negotiations by 2005 at the latest.
  • The United States should focus on ensuring regional security and international support for a negotiated agreement, which should be reached before U.S. troops are completely withdrawn.
  • The European Union holds key incentives—assistance and eventual membership.
  • A way needs to be found to clarify Kosovo's road to Europe, enabling it in effect to participate in the Stabilization and Association Process (the EU approach to preparing Balkan countries for eventual integration).
  • Once status is decided, the European Union should take over responsibility for Kosovo.
  • Russia's participation in the process will help ensure its support for the outcome.
  • Final status will require predetermined guarantees for minorities, for Kosovo's neighbors, and for Bosnia.
  • The final status solution should be approved by the UN Security Council.

About the Report

Kosovo today is an international protectorate created by UN Security Council Resolution 1244, which foresees establishment of substantial autonomy and self-governance under the aegis of the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) followed by a decision on final status. In the three and a half years since the NATO/Yugoslavia war, officials have generally avoided discussion of Kosovo final status and sought to postpone the decision foreseen in resolution 1244. At the same time, pressures are building and many informed observers believe that a decision will be needed sooner rather than later, but certainly within the next two to five years. Continuing to defer the matter will increase the risk of future conflict.

The U.S. Institute of Peace convened an off-the-record meeting December 5, 2002 to discuss the process of deciding Kosovo's final status. Under the chairmanship of Daniel Serwer, director of the Balkans Initiative, European Union and North American officials and non-official participants assessed the current state of affairs in Kosovo in relation to other ongoing processes in the Balkans, discussed what process could move the issue of Kosovo forward, and considered next steps in the process. Participation in this brainstorming session was personal, not organizational. Nothing was decided—only discussed. This report is a summary of many of the points made. It was prepared by Serwer and research assistant Sloan Mann.

The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not advocate specific policies

Related Publications

As ISIS Fighters Return Home, Mobilizing Communities

As ISIS Fighters Return Home, Mobilizing Communities

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

The dozen senior officials seated around the room were veterans of high-level strategy and planning. They work in ministries. They serve as analysts and advisors on security, counterterrorism, human rights. They had helped craft their national policy to prevent violent extremism. Now they were embarking on a specific plan for handling the next stage of the problem.

Type: In the Field

Violent Extremism

Violent Extremists Find Traction Among Kosovo’s Youth

Violent Extremists Find Traction Among Kosovo’s Youth

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Last month, police arrested 25 people for allegedly planning synchronized terrorist attacks in Kosovo and Albania, including against the Israeli national soccer team and its fans during a match. Authorities said the foiled attacks had been ordered and coordinated by ISIS commanders from Kosovo fighting in Syria and Iraq. The case underscores the accelerating risk for terror attacks outside Iraq and Syria, as ISIS loses ground, its foreign fighters return home or fresh recruits get stuck in th...

Type: Blog

Violent ExtremismYouthConflict Analysis & Prevention

Dynamics of Radicalization and Violent Extremism in Kosovo

Dynamics of Radicalization and Violent Extremism in Kosovo

Monday, December 19, 2016

By: Adrian Shtuni

Relying in large part on primary empirical evidence, this report explores the dynamics of violent extremism in Kosovo and the disproportionately high number of radicalized fighters from the region in Syria and Iraq. Examining the historic, cultural, geopolitical, and socioeconomic factors behind the phenomenon, it focuses on the flow as a symptom of a larger religious militancy problem within the country and offers recommendations on countering that challenge.  

Type: Special Report

Violent ExtremismFragility & ResilienceReligion

A Post-War Transition That Works: A Lesson for Afghanistan... from Kosovo

A Post-War Transition That Works: A Lesson for Afghanistan... from Kosovo

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

By: Linwood Ham

A case study hashed out at West Point recently focused on a conflict 15 years past to demonstrate that a post-war transition has a better chance of success with three key elements. The formula could reframe the nation’s recurring debate over “nation-building” and point the way to approaches that might help the U.S. and its allies during the next phase of Afghanistan’s transition.

Type: Blog

View All Publications