Washington - The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has released a new report by Marvin G. Weinbaum on Afghanistan and Its Neighbors: An Ever Dangerous Neighborhood. Emphasizing that "Afghanistan’s future and that of the regional states are closely bound," the report examines the role neighboring countries in advancing stability, political consolidation, and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan.
The relationships with Pakistan and Iran are "the most imposing and critical," says Weinbaum. The report also discusses the post-Soviet Central Asian states, India, China, and Russia.
Despite a long history of opportunism and destabilizing intervention, the report finds that since 2001, Afghanistan’s neighbors have generally supported a "stable, independent, and economically strengthening Afghan state."
Among the reasons for this support for the Karzai regime are fears of new waves of Afghan refugees; the resurgence of a radical regime in Kabul; or the resurrection of a haven for insurgent groups and Islamist radicals. Economic interests, including the protection of oil pipelines, have also made a stable Afghanistan preferable.
However, recent signs show that Iran and Pakistan, among others, have recently appeared more assertive, and seem prepared to renew intervention through "traditional, divisive Afghan clients."
Renewed international commitment to Afghan reconstruction efforts is critical to prevent such a scenario, argues Weinbaum. Cautioning against a "[unidimensional] focus on counterterrorism," the report emphasizes the importance of economic and political development.
"Without a visible international involvement, there exists a strong possibility of domestic political turmoil and economic failure that could condemn Afghanistan to become a narco-state, and leave it prey to rapacious neighbors," he concludes.