Iraq: The Kirkuk Workshop and the Mahmoudiyah Initiative

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The Baghdad office continues to churn along in preparation for a crowded month of activities and events in August. The SENSE training for the Provincial Councils around Iraq tops the list with 70 participants. The fact that the training targets senior decision makers from all 18 governorates around Iraq combined with the timing (conflict mitigation/reconciliation is the byword here these days) make this the most important SENSE program delivered by USIP to date. Part II of the the Kirkuk Worshop is also a major undertaking scheduled to commence next week in Sarajevo. Most immediately, however (within days in fact), a delegation of Iraqi government and tribal leaders from the Mahmoudiyah region south of Baghdad (the so-called "Sunni Triangle") is scheduled to depart for Amman.

USIP has been working on a tribal reconciliation initiative for the past month at the behest of the Mahmoudiyah Qada council. Formerly a Baathist stronghold during Saddam's reign, many of the region's Sunnis have since been displaced. Al-Qaeda, militias and insurgent groups have turned the region into a cauldron of violence that has blocked reconstruction and stifled economic development. Recent improvements in the overall security picture in Mahmoudiya suggest, however, that there may be a window of opportunity for Sunni and Shia tribal leaders to forge common ground with the local government. Political and tribal leaders in the region are convinced that engaging the support of senior tribal sheiks—many of whom reside in exile in Jordan—is a critical component of any reconciliation process.

The Kirkuk Workshop and the Mahmoudiyah Initiative, however, are both at risk due to the fact that their Iraqi participants require visas that a growing number of countries are reluctant to grant them. This is increasingly true of Iraq's immediate neighbors in the Middle East who fear that the influx of refugees and the problems they bring with them will be destabilizing. Jordan, for example, has essentially closed its borders to even high-level officials and diplomatic delegations such as the Mahmoudiyah group. The net effect is that Iraq's isolation is increasing—an inevitable consequence of its ongoing internal upheaval that could further complicate efforts by Iraqis themselves to engage their neighbors in seeking solutions to the problems that beset them.