Publications

Peace Watch

April/May 2005
Vol. XI, No. 1

Short Takes

Disintegration in the Ivory Coast?

"The situation in the Ivory Coast raises serious questions about the viability of the African state and the role of the international community in African crises," says David Smock, director of the Religion and Peacemaking Initiative at the Institute, who in mid-December moderated a Current Issues Briefing on a country that had once been viewed as an oasis of stability and prosperity in West Africa. The briefing was held to draw attention to the crisis in the Ivory Coast, where a contingent of French, UN, and West African troops currently maintains an uneasy truce between the government of Laurent Gbagbo in the south and various rebel groups in the north. Speaking at the briefing were Daniel Chirot, a senior fellow at the Institute; Jeanne Toungara, of Howard University; and Jennifer Widner, of Princeton University.

Toungara noted the sad irony that after many decades of one-party, one-person rule under Felix Houphouet-Boigny, the country's launch into multi-party democracy has resulted in the "re-ethnicization" of politics, as leaders seek their constituencies from their own ethnic groups. Widner observed that a disintegration similar to the Ivory Coast's almost occurred in Kenya, but that quick intervention from indigenous civil society groups and the international community helped prevent a similar outcome. Unfortunately, she said, the conflict in the Ivory Coast is becoming harder to resolve as ethnic hatreds become more intense. Chirot began his presentation by saying that he was "quite gloomy," and proceeded to explain why: The economy, he said, is increasingly given over to plunder; the north-south divide is growing and becoming more factionalized; the exodus of whites is worsening employment prospects for the young, leaving them with little alternative to violence; and while it is not a religious war now, it could degenerate into one, with the potential of spreading across West Africa.

Since the Institute forum on the Ivory Coast, some new developments have raised hopes that perhaps a solution might be found. President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa brokered a negotiated agreement between the major political forces in the country. They have accepted, in principle, holding elections in October of 2005. However, much remains to be done if the Ivory Coast is to survive as a viable entity.

Crunch Time in Mindanao?

The conflict in Mindanao, in the southern Philippines, has its roots in the tangled history of the colonial era, explained Eugene Martin, executive director of the Institute's project to facilitate peace talks between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. When Spain sold the Philippines to the United States in 1898, it included in the deal several predominantly Muslim islands that the Spaniards had never conquered. Using modern weaponry, the U.S. Army succeeded in subduing these islands. Although the U.S. colonial authorities administered the Moro Islands separately from the rest of the country, when the United States granted the Philippines commonwealth status in 1935, it ceded these formerly autonomous islands to Filipino control. Today, a continuing insurgency launched decades ago has cost more than 120,000 lives. At a Current Issues Briefing in February, several experts discussed what it might take to end the conflict.

Benedicto Bacani, a senior fellow at the Institute and dean of the College of Law at Notre Dame University in Cotabato City, Mindanao, expressed confidence that recent peace talks would lead to an agreement. The parties realize, he said, that "fighting it out" does not work, and the leaders of the guerilla movement appear to be open to a solution. The challenge, he warned, would be implementing the agreement and making sure it "stuck." Zachary Abuza, also a senior fellow and a professor of political science at Simmons College, was more skeptical. While there is a lot of "war weariness" among the population and considerable progress on the elements of an accord, there is also a growing gap between the leadership of the movement and a younger generation impatient for change. Finally, Astrid Tuminez, a senior research associate at the Institute, argued that the thorny issue of "ancestral domain" will be pivotal to the outcome of the peace process. It encompasses Moro demands for territorial restitution, control over economic resources, and governance with minimal interference by Manila. Prospects for an effective resolution in the near-term are "grim," but could improve over time.

Simulating Conflict Makes It Real

The time is six months in the future. The place is Hawaii. The cast of characters includes a hard-headed counter-intelligence officer in the U.S. navy, a Filipino archbishop respected for bringing Catholics and Muslims together to work for peace, a high-ranking general in the Philippine army, and the leader of a Muslim insurgency who's been fighting for his homeland since the age of 15. You are one of these characters. Together with a dozen or so other interested parties, you have come together under the auspices of the U.S. Institute of Peace to negotiate an end to the long-standing conflict between the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. (See story above for more information about the conflict.)

You are one of these characters. Together with a dozen or so other interested parties, you have come together under the auspices of the U.S. Institute of Peace to negotiate an end to the long-standing conflict between the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. (See story above for more information about the conflict.)

For students studying international relations at Georgetown and George Washington Universities, this was no mere thought experiment. Thoroughly briefed on the latest details of the conflict in the Philippines by Institute staff and scholars, the students participated in a day-long simulation meant to mirror the complexity of real-world negotiations and to give the students an appreciation for the divergent points of view held by the different parties. "As they get into their characters and learn their positions, they develop a deepened sympathy for the real-life participants in these struggles," said Pamela Aall, the director of the Institute's education program. "They also learn about the dilemmas of leadership, as each party worries about how compromises at the negotiating table will be viewed by his or her constituencies back home."

For more on the simulations, visit the Institute's web site at http://www.usip.org/class/simulations/. The book, Taming Intractable Conflicts, by Chester Crocker, Fen Osler Hampson, and Pamela Aall, is published by the Institute Press and available online.