August/September 2004
Vol. X, No. 3

Short Takes

What China's Growth Means

China's booming economy is giving the country an unprecedented degree of influence and power. But how will it use its newfound power, and what implications will that have for the region and for the United States? Institute president Richard Solomon addressed these issues in the keynote address delivered to the U.S.– China Business Council in early June.

China's boom has been good for its people, said Solomon, hundreds of millions of whom have been lifted out of absolute poverty. It has also been good for the region—China has become the engine of economic development throughout Asia. But there are challenges and vulnerabilities ahead. The gap between rich and poor, between urban and countryside, between coastal and inland regions—all have the potential to destabilize the political order. Estimates are that one-quarter of China's workforce is un- or underemployed—in a country that has to add 11 million new jobs a year to the economy just to keep up with the population growth. Corruption exerts a heavy drag on the economy. An overextended banking sector could go bust. A new health care crisis like SARS could frighten away foreign investment. Battles for succession among the leadership could rock the country's stability. And, perhaps most worryingly, China's success could tempt it to do something precipitous regarding Taiwan, possibly sparking a military confrontation between China, Taiwan, and the U.S.—a losing proposition for all involved.

Richard Solomon

Solomon concluded his talk by noting that the Institute's emphasis on preventive diplomacy, its negotiation and dialogue training programs, and its ability to facilitate third-party intervention can all play a role in helping China, its neighbors, and the United States find common ground. "China's development and Asia's transformation can be an opportunity for the United States," said Solomon, "but it is a transformation we need to actively manage." ( Complete text of Dr. Solomon's speech).

9/11 Commission Cites Institute Research

The bipartisan National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, informally known as the 9/11 Commission, issued its final report in July. The report cites the Institute's Special Report on Establishing the Rule of Law in Afghanistan, written by the Rule of Law Program's Robert Perito and Laurel Miller. Mamoun Fandy, a senior fellow this year, is listed in the appendixes as having participated in one of the commission's public hearings, as are several past Institute grant recipients.

Transferring Power in Iraq

Mick Kicklighter

Senior officials from the Defense and State Departments briefed an Institute audience in late May on how the two departments were coordinating their activities to ensure a safe transfer of sovereignty to Iraq the following month. Ambassador Frank Ricciardone, coordinator for the Iraq Transition at the Department of State, and General Mick Kicklighter (Ret.), his counterpart in the Defense Department, focused on the operational details of the transfer. "The CPA will be not be replaced by some super-embassy," said Ricciardone. "It will be replaced by the interim Iraqi government."

Ricciardone made it plain, however, that the United States would continue to play a major role in Iraq's security and reconstruction: "Although we will no longer be an occupying authority, we will continue to be a strong and supportive friend to the Iraqis."

Both speakers emphasized that the cooperation between the State Department and the Pentagon was proceeding smoothly and expressed confidence that the remaining issues—such as a Status of Forces agreement, visa laws, property rights, and so on—would be resolved expeditiously.

Book Launched on U.S. Human Rights Policy

Top to bottom: Holly Burkhalter, Debra Liang-Fenton

The Institute recently published Implementing U.S. Human Rights Policy: Successes, Failures, Challenges, and Opportunities, which examines the U.S. record through 14 case studies over the past quarter-century. Two former assistant secretaries of state for human rights and Institute board member Holly Burkhalter praised the book and offered their thoughts on the evolution of U.S. human rights policy at a meeting held to launch the book in mid-April. Debra Liang-Fenton, the editor of the book and a former program officer in the Institute's Research and Studies Program, moderated the discussion. The book's conclusion draws out the lessons learned about what policies work and what policies don't, and offers practical advice for those seeking to shape present or future human rights initiatives. (Sample chapters available online.

In addition…

The Institute held on- and off-the-record meetings and discussions on migration flows in Northeast Asia, on Islam in Africa, on reporting on the genocide in Rwanda, and on Somalia 10 years after the U.S. pullout. Robert Perito appeared as a witness before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations to discuss the continuing challenges in Afghanistan. Richard Solomon spoke at a briefing attended by Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA) and Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) on Capitol Hill to discuss peace and security on the Korean Peninsula. The briefing was remarkable because it was the first time North Korean diplomats were allowed in the United States outside of the 25-mile radius of the UN's headquarters in New York City.