June 2004
Vol. X, No. 2
Needed: A New Regional Security Arrangement
How will a transformed Iraq affect its neighbors—and how will they seek to affect Iraq?
U.S.-sponsored regime change in Iraq has reconfigured the political landscape in the Middle East. But has it increased or diminished that already fragile region's political volatility? Two long-standing Middle East experts examined that question at a meeting held at the Institute in mid-February. Moderated by the Institute's Daniel Serwer, the speakers were Geoffrey Kemp of the Nixon Center and Giandomenico Picco of GDP Associates, Inc.
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Each of Iraq's neighbors has a different set of concerns regarding developments in Iraq, said Kemp. For Turkey, the primary consideration is the status of Iraq's Kurdish population. Too much autonomy for Iraqi Kurds may prompt demands for independence from Turkey's own Kurdish population. However, said Kemp, their demands are not likely to provoke the sort of backlash that Turkey's Kurds have faced in the past. Ankara's hope of starting negotiations for membership in the European Union will likely moderate its response.
Syria and Iran, by contrast, are under much greater political pressure, as both regimes face crises of legitimacy that will only deepen if Iraq emerges as a stable and democratic country in their midst. Saudi Arabia will face a similar political challenge and an economic challenge as well, once Iraqi oil exports begin to reach their potential. Further complicating the picture are the ethnic and sectarian divisions within Iraq, agreed the participants, which are likely to tempt neighboring regimes to intervene, discreetly or overtly, in Iraq's internal affairs.
The best way to resolve these concerns is through a regional approach involving Iraq and its neighbors in an effort to develop a suitable architecture for negotiating their differences and stabilizing their relations. One model may be the Helsinki process in Europe, which negotiated the transition from Soviet-bloc regimes to more democratic states. A Helsinki-type architecture under UN auspices would develop a code of conduct to regulate relations among Iraq and its neighbors and provide all with assurances of stability and security, even as it allowed Iraqis to develop their democracy free of outside intervention.
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