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June 2003
Vol. IX, No. 4
Sudan's Endgame for Peace
After decades of broken ceasefires and unfulfilled promises, hopes for an end to Sudan's devastating civil war are currently high.
The Sudanese have long suffered from a deadly conflict spiraling around religion, oil, race, ethnicity, and ideology. Usually portrayed as a war between the Arab Muslim North and the Christian and animist South, the war has claimed millions of lives and created the largest population of internally displaced persons in the world.
According to Francis Deng, former Sudanese diplomat and current Institute senior fellow, the question of identity is the core issue of the civil war. Peace can only be built when the Sudanese capitalize on their common identity as Sudanese.
Deng and Institute board chair Chester Crocker lead the Institute's Sudan Peace Forum, which meets regularly for roundtable discussions that share information among government, diplomatic, academic, and non-governmental actors working toward peace and rehabilitation in Sudan. Among the visiting speakers have been John Garang, chairman and commander-in-chief of the Sudanese People Liberation Movement/ Army (SPLM/A), who visited Washington in May and spoke with forum members on the 30th.
The peace process under the aegis of the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) is bearing fruit with the renewed commitment of the United States and other members of the so-called "troika" of supporters (the United Kingdom and Norway), forum participants agreed. The results of this momentum include the Machakos Protocol signed in July 2002 and ongoing negotiations mediated by IGAD's special envoy, Lt. General Lazaro K. Sumbeiywo of Kenya.
Recently the official peace process was bolstered by an opposition agreement to call for a Sharia-free Khartoum. The SPLM/A, Democratic Unionist Party, and Umma Party signed the Cairo Declaration on May 24, 2003. Hassan al Turabi and his People's National Congress party signed onto the declaration on June 3.
Both sides—the government and the SPLM/A—are flexible to varying degrees, said forum participants. Both can see the general outline for an agreement and ultimate resolution. However, the situation on the ground is still far from stable and outstanding issues such as the following must be addressed.
- Wealth-sharing, particularly of oil revenues, is a point of contention.
- Power-sharing issues, such as who fills the interim presidency, require clarification and agreement.
- Security during the interim period and beyond will require dealing with two armies, state security groups, militias, and international peacekeeping and ceasefire monitoring.
- The status of Khartoum in relation to law and religion is not yet agreed.
- The three areas of Abyei, the Southern Blue Nile, and the Nuba Mountains are geographically in the North but share many cultural traits—plus a common history of marginalization—with the South. Their status in the future is not yet determined.
- There must be a package of international guarantees, including aid, cooperation in counter-terrorism and humanitarian efforts, monitoring the ceasefire, and maintaining security on the ground. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund are planning to facilitate wealth-sharing on a technical level. The European Union and the Arab states will also be encouraged to support the peace in various ways.
The momentum for peace and the evidence of political will and commitment have raised hopes but, for peace to endure, these important issues must be addressed.
Other Institute Resources:
- Sudan Peace Agreements
- A New Approach to Peace in Sudan
1999 Special Report
