Fifty Years of Partnership: The U.S.-ROK Alliance
As the United States and South Korea celebrate the 50th anniversary of their historically successful alliance, experts assess its accomplishments and look to the future.
June 2003
How can the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) successfully maintain their 50-year-old alliance under the strain of rapidly evolving South Korean domestic politics and in the face of North Korea's nuclear weapons challenge?
On May 16 the Institute co-hosted, with the National Defense University, a public conference, "The U.S.–ROK Alliance at Fifty: Continuity, Change, and Implications for the Future."
The conference met two days after a summit meeting between Presidents George Bush and Roh Moo-hyun. At the summit, the leaders called for just such meetings on the future of the alliance "to generate fresh ideas for both governments."
Opening the conference, Vice Admiral Paul G. Gaffney, president of the National Defense University, agreed, noting that it is important for both countries to "look ahead critically to the evolution of the alliance." Institute president Richard Solomon added some questions for conference participants, "Has the alliance run its course? Is it no longer relevant to the security concerns and interests of both sides? Can it be sustained? If so, on what basis?"
Gaps in Perceptions
Public support has eroded for the alliance in both the United States and South Korea, noted Solomon. The younger generations of South Koreans now assuming power have no memory of the Korean War, resent the American military presence on the peninsula, and highly value reunification with North Korea. "Some in South Korea see the enemy as their friend. And their only reliable friend and ally as an adversary," he added.
Kongdan Oh, Yoshihisa Komori, Alexandre Mansourov, Ming Zhang, Paul Stares.
Observers disagree on the level of anti-Americanism in South Korea. However, it is clear that there are misperceptions about the U.S. role there, argued panelists Richard Allen, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University, and Kim Changsu, director of U.S. Studies at the Korean Institute for Defense Analysis in Seoul. An effort by the South Korean government is needed to educate the young, emerging generations of South Koreans about the importance of the alliance and the nature of American presence and intentions on the peninsula.
Old and New Threats
Left to right: Kim Changsu, Marcus Noland, Chung Min Lee, Richard Allen, Frederick Smith.
North Korea is quite possibly facing an "implosion scenario," according to conference speakers Marcus Noland of the Institute for International Economics and Kongdan Oh of the Institute for Defense Analysis. North Korea's economy has bottomed out and social unrest in the tightly controlled country cannot be ruled out.
In their summit communique, Presidents Roh and Bush reaffirmed a shared commitment to the elimination of North Korea's nuclear program. A common approach is exactly what is necessary, panelists agreed, but so far it has not been achieved, partly because there are differences in how the North Korean threat is perceived. Also, South Korea must balance its desire for reunification with the reality of North Korea's quest for nuclear weapons.
There are a range of possible actions and steps to take toward a more stable peninsula. Solomon brought attention to a recent Institute Special Report written by Bill Drennan, deputy director of the Research and Studies Program and the conference organizer, which calls for a political settlement to finally close the Korean War—the last Cold War conflict.
The Future of the Alliance
David Steinberg, William Watts, Victor Cha, Katherine Moon.
An alliance reaching its 50th anniversary—much as a person reaching the age of 50—is a reason for both celebration and sober reflection.
Katharine Moon of Wellesley College and Ralph Cossa of the Pacific Forum at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, both presented reasons for optimism. The alliance is richer than simply the security relationship, they noted. It is based on certain common, democratic values. The two countries also have shared religious beliefs, family ties, and the history of over a half-century of continuous American military presence in South Korea. Cossa added that a particularly strong tie is annual foreign direct investment in South Korea of $70 billion.
Richard Solomon and Paul Gaffney
Further cause for celebration includes several great achievements: deterrence of North Korean aggression, the change in the ROK from authoritarian to democratic governance, and the transformation of the ROK into one of the world's leading trading economies.
At the same time, there are fault lines in the alliance. Perceptions matter. Education and dialogue are necessary to close the gaps in perception about the American role on the peninsula, the future of the alliance, and the threat of North Korean nuclear capacity.
In sum, a combined sense of achievement and concern permeated the conference. Paul Stares, Research and Studies director, closed the conference by remarking that the mature way to face the milestone of 50—personally or politically—is by "reflecting on what is good and what needs to be changed. And with a renewed sense of respect for friends and partners and a commitment to fulfilling shared obligations and responsibilities."
