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April 2003
Vol. IX, No. 3
An Iraqi pupil tears up a picture of Saddam Hussein that the class removed from textbooks as part of an exercise on their return to class at the Qairuran School in Kirkuk on April 24. |
Picturing Iraq at Peace
A continuing series of discussions at the Institute explores the many questions relating to post-war Iraq.
Peace Among the People
"It is important that all Iraqis feel change, and feel change quickly, after the end of fighting," said the Iraqi National Movement's Hatem Mukhlis, if we are to ensure peace and allay fears among various groups in Iraq.
Mukhlis was one of four panelists at a February 11 Institute briefing, organized with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, considering sectarian reconciliation in post-war Iraq.
Tamara Wittes, Research and Studies program officer, moderated the panel, which also included Amatzia Baram, University of Haifa; Rend Rahim Francke, Iraq Foundation; and Jihan Hajibadri, American University.
Iraqis may turn increasingly to ethnicity and religion as bases for identity in post-war Iraq, raising the specter of the kind of conflict that characterized Yugoslavia. Francke noted an all-time high in ethno-religious tensions, but did not believe Iraq would reach the same level of strife as the Balkans.
All of the speakers raised fears that the fall of Saddam Hussein's government might be followed by a wave of ethnic-based riots, revenge killings, or related violence. Mukhlis feared political fragmentation of Iraq along geographical, ethnic, or religious lines, and the possible rise to power of another Hussein-like dictator. Baram was concerned about a possible cycle of revenge. Hajibadri also pointed out that conflict might also erupt when Kurds, Turkmen, and others displaced by the Hussein regime tried to return to their homes.
To avoid these scenarios, the panelists posited ideas for a new government that will encourage an integrated society. The new Iraqi government, Baram said, should be transparent, consensus-based, and ethnically and religiously representative, and must equitably distribute revenues from oil and other natural resources. Francke urged that political parties not become proxies for ethnic and religious groups. Also, a sense of citizenship as Iraqis, not based on ethnicity or religion, must be encouraged. Hajibadri suggested third-party mediation by a credible outsider, such as the United Nations, to ensure stability and create a foundation for reconciliation.
Iraqis demonstrating in Baghdad on April 28 hold a counterfeit bank note with a target imposed over Saddam Hussein's picture and an added portrait of a religious leader. |
The Relief Picture
To examine humanitarian needs in post-war Iraq and the means to meet them, the Institute hosted a February 26 briefing featuring David McLachlan-Karr, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs; Sandra Mitchell, International Rescue Committee; Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings Institution; and George Ward, U.S. Department of Defense, Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance.
The panel agreed that the most immediate needs include civilian security, food and water, and shelter for the displaced. O'Hanlon pointed out that a stable environment will be the first priority of coalition forces.
There was also consensus on proper roles for various actors—including American and international military forces, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), UN agencies, and Iraqi officials.
Prospective difficulties include political maneuvering around issues of funding, security, and coordination. NGOs are reluctant to work closely with the American military or the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, which reports to the Pentagon.
Military forces will first play a role, according to Ward, in creating space for humanitarian assistance delivery, as well as facilitating relief operations, coordinating efforts, and sharing information through a civil-military humanitarian operations center. Ward noted that they will rely on Iraqis for much of the relief and reconstruction efforts. The U.S. government has given a great deal of attention to identifying Iraqis with whom it can work, he added. While the American military will continue to be the dominant actor immediately after the cessation of hostilities, it expects the United Nations and NGOs to take the humanitarian lead.
The absence of on-the-ground experience among NGOs and most United Nations agencies in Iraq will hamper relief efforts. Nonetheless, NGOs will have to work quickly to identify and address needs. The UN will be expected to play an important leadership and coordination role. The UN anticipates using the current Oil-for-Food structure (a UN World Food Program responsibility), which will mean working closely with Iraqi offices, as they are the heart of the current distribution structure.
McLachlan-Karr and Mitchell cautioned that Iraq is "not another Afghanistan." After 12 years of sanctions, Iraqi coping mechanisms are fragile and the potential magnitude of the impacts of the conflict are much greater.
Hot Spot at Kirkuk
Kirkuk, in northern Iraq, produces a large share of Iraqi oil and is a hotbed of ethnic and religious tension because of the Hussein regime's policy of displacing much of its Kurdish, Turkish, and Christian population and resettling Arabs from other areas.
The Institute convened small group meetings on February 19 and March 17 of people from the Iraqi Kurdish, Turkmen, and Arab communities, along with other area experts. The meetings analyzed possible points of conflict in Kirkuk and how they might be addressed without violence. Daniel Serwer, the Institute's director of peace operations, organized the meetings.
Participants agreed that Kirkuk is Iraqi and its status should be resolved—without resorting to violence—only after the broader context has been clarified in post-conflict Iraq. A representative interim governing authority should be established as quickly as possible, followed by a power-sharing arrangement to reduce mutual suspicions.
Public security is priority one, said participants. The rights of return and property are priority two. The rush to return could create serious problems: humanitarian resources will be stretched, shelter is lacking, and property rights are not clearly defined. The parties concerned are looking to the United States to assist in meeting the challenges posed by reconstruction, maintaining stability, and refugee return.
Other Institute Resources:
- Focus On Iraq
A collection of Institute resources on Iraq.
