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February 2003
Vol. IX, No. 2
Northern Ireland: Looking through the Good Friday Fog
Zimbabawe: What Future for Mugabe's Zimbabwe?
Lethal Ethnic Riots
Vicious cycles of violence have plagued some communities of Muslims and Hindus in India. These riots have occurred primar-ily in four of the twenty-eight Indian states, and only eight cities account for almost half the deaths. Why do riots occur in these cities and not in others of comparable ethnic composition? Is there a pattern to the violence? Why do some communities that have maintained a long record of ethnic peace eventually explode in violence? What tools exist to stem the violence and build healthier relationships between ethnic groups?
Moderated by Grant Program director Judy Barsalou, an October 31, 2002 Current Issues Briefing featured insights from two Institute grantees who are also leading scholars on the causes of deadly ethnic violence: Donald L. Horowitz, Duke University, and Ashutosh Varshney, University of Michigan.
The what and why of communal violence around the world were addressed by Horowitz, who explained that it is characterized by: (1) a "lucid madness" gripping rioters who target selected victims, and (2) hostile relationships between ethnic groups, anger, a sense of insecurity, and rumors that spark ethnic violence. Horowitz indicated that individuals are more likely to participate in ethnic riots when they have:
- a sense of reduced personal risk
- a sense of personal justification for killing
- an intense emotional response to a recent event
- an obsessively hostile relationship with the other group
Varshney discussed civil society's role in quelling the potential for violence. Indian communities in which there is little interaction among members of different ethnic groups are most likely to engage in ethnic violence. Those with strong interethnic institutions have stronger personal and professional bonds among individuals in different ethnic groups and provide important informal channels of interethnic communication that can prevent or reduce violence. While formal organized social structures—such as professional associations or unions—tend to be more helpful, informal or neighborhood-level associations—such as book or sport clubs—also can increase interaction among individuals across ethnic lines. Varshney stressed that interethnic civil society associations do not naturally occur in societies with rigid ethnic divisions and must be actively built by those seeking to prevent communal violence. While ethnic conflict cannot be completely eradicated, said Varshney, civil society tools can help reduce or prevent ethnic violence.
    Marie Smythe, Andy Pollack, Richard Haas, and Paul Arthur. |
Looking Through the Good Friday Fog
Though the process is slow, peace is building in Northern Ireland, says former Institute fellow and University of Ulster professor Paul Arthur. Arthur discussed the problems and prospects of the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 and the Northern Ireland peace process at a panel moderated by Institute fellow and Northern Ireland scholar Marie Smyth in December 2002. The other panelists were U.S. Department of State director of policy planning Richard Haass and Northern Ireland expert Andy Pollak.
Haass felt a "sense of opportunity" from his recent series of trips to Northern Ireland. He noted the continued commitment of both Northern Ireland and Great Britain to the peace process. The Bush administration plans to continue to press for full implementation of the Good Friday Agreement, as it does not see a viable alternative. Haass says there are five important steps that must be taken:
- Elimination of all paramilitary capabilities and activities in Northern Ireland;
- More effective community policing programs and police reform;
- Demilitarization of the British presence as part of the process of normalizing relations;
- Strengthening of institutions and activities in support of human rights; and
- Restoration of local power-sharing institutions.
Arthur said that comments by both nationalist and unionist leaders prove that mindsets are changing on both sides. He emphasized that maintaining U.S. leverage in the coming months is crucial and cautioned all parties involved to expect "compromise and frustration" as the process continues.
Pollak said that several tough questions still need to be answered. These center largely on arms decommissioning by the Irish Republican Army and the response of the British and Irish nationalists to decommissioning. For example, should decommissioning be linked to restoration of local governance institutions recently suspended by the British government? Finally, is there still a future for Irish unity or will unionists successfully use the Good Friday Agreement to bring Northern Ireland into the United Kingdom fold?
In closing, Pollak noted that trust building among conflicting parties is a key aspect in fulfilling the Good Friday Agreement. The increasing quantity and quality of cooperation between Northern and Southern Ireland is an underappreciated side effect of the agreement. "For the first time in nearly a century, significant numbers of people, including northern unionists, are meeting to talk, listen, and ultimately work together across the Irish border," said Pollak.
What Future for Mugabe's Zimbabwe?
 Institute senior fellow Masipula Sithole. |
Current inflation is at 300–400 percent, unemployment at more than 85 percent, and 50 percent of the population depends on foreign food aid. But such percentages cannot fully explain the impacts of the underlying political crisis in Zimbabwe. Four presentations at a January 29 Institute briefing examined options that might lead to a better future. Chester Crocker, chairman of the Institute's Board of Directors, moderated the panel.
Walter Kansteiner, U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, lamented the unfulfilled promises of good governance, literacy, and reconciliation in Zimbabwe in the 1980s. The Zimbabwean government, said Kansteiner, "does not have a plan." Kansteiner believes that the best option for U.S. policy and the international community for now is to continue with strong multilateral sanctions against Mugabe's regime.
Zimbabwe's ambassador to the United States,Simbi Mubako, outlined the country's major challenges. Besides the scourge of HIV/AIDS that plagues all of southern Africa, food shortage is the most critical problem. Mubako called for attention to both longer-term food security and the current crisis, including increased food production in non-drought years, improved food storage capacity, decreased reliance on foreign food and grain, and expanded irrigation and dam construction. The current economic recession is sustained, he said, by the diplomatic stand-off with—and economic sanctions imposed by—the West. Mubako called on leaders of major Zimbabwean political factions to enter immediate talks to ensure political stabil-ity. He encouraged the international community to pledge support to the results of such talks, no matter the outcome.
Harvard Africa scholar Robert Rotberg called Zimbabwe's situation "one of the main paralyzing questions about Africa." Rotberg said that the Mugabe regime is essentially starving its own people. He outlined the regional implications of Zimbabwe's problems and expressed concern about a growing refugee problem. Rotberg feels that South Africa should take a greater leadership role to fend off a regional crisis.
 Walter Kansteiner and Zimbabwe ambassador to the U.S. Simbi Mubako |
Institute fellow and Zimbabwean professor Masipula Sithole charged the Mugabe government with failing to take care of its own people. Regime change is critical, he said. Sithole suggested moving the presidential elections from 2008 to 2005—to coincide with parliamentary elections—and soliciting a pledge from Mugabe to not run again. Sithole thinks the military might be convinced to support this option and thus avoid further civil unrest. Sithole is optimistic about appealing to Mugabe's better nature, positing that "he did love [the people of Zimbabwe] once and in the national interest he can love them again."
- Oct. 31 - Lethal Communal Riots: Lessons from India and Beyond
[Event Summary] [Webcast Archive] - Special Report: Lethal Ethnic Riots: Lessons from India and Beyond
- December 12 - The Northern Ireland Peace Process: Problems and Prospects
[Event Summary] [Webcast Archive] - Jan. 29 - What Future for Mugabe's Zimbabwe?
[Event Summary] [Webcast Archive]
